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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

fortune.com

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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#21

Post by jrochkind1 »

kubb wrote: post #4

that would actually be great, the volatility and speculation only helps a narrow group of dedicated traders. as long as stock market saves you from inflation, you should be happy with your investment

Well, that was my question, if "kind of flat" means keeping up with inflation at least, or not.

Although my understanding of the standard model of how privatized "saving for retirement" via investment funds works, is that you better have returns at more than inflation, especially in the early part of your career, if you want to be able to retire.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#22

Post by Victerius »

fny wrote: post #5
kubb wrote: post #4

that would actually be great, the volatility and speculation only helps a narrow group of dedicated traders. as long as stock market saves you from inflation, you should be happy with your investment

You do realize that the stock market will not save you from inflation if it remains flat for a decade?

People need to stop trying to find the best portfolio to keep up with inflation. It's futile. Just be happy if your portfolio appreciates 3% in a year, like our forefathers were.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#24

Post by throwoutway »

At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#25

Post by mvc »

jxf wrote: post #15

> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir. Adjusting for inflation, the stock market was not "flat" during this period [0]. The DJIA, for example, closed at an effective price of 9,160.41 in January 1966 and closed at an effective…

Presumably dividends would balance it out though.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#26

Post by recursivedoubts »

apples_oranges wrote: post #23

I, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks at a low price.

looking at the pullbacks in 2000 and 2008, there is a non-trivial chance that the S&P will bottom sub-1000

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#27

Post by epistasis »

rurban wrote: post #6

I'll still wait a few months to buy, but the green energy changes will improve everything. No more oil/gas dependencies!

I think more important than removing dependencies on oil/gas is that energy will be much cheaper, reducing the cost of everything.

One other aspect of the IRA is that it heavily incentivizes building the new manufacturing capacity in the US. If US manufacturing is not competitive with other parts of the world, this could be less efficient than a world where the best manufacturers do more of it. So it has the potential to lower growth rates, but personally I think the tech advances for cost reduction of solar/wind/storage will likely be so massive as to overwhelm any potential US-based inefficiencies.

In order to correct it, we could tie some of these benefits back to the manufacturers being able to compete on the global market; I.e. if they can't export X% of their product successfully in a competitive market, then the subsidies taper out. But we will see.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#29

Post by O__________O »

mvc wrote: post #25
jxf wrote: post #15

> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir. Adjusting for inflation, the stock market was not "flat" during this period [0]. The DJIA, for example, closed at an effective price of 9,160.41 in January 1966 and closed at an effective…

Presumably dividends would balance it out though.

Dividends would balance out a 65% drop during the same period, how so?

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#30

Post by peteradio »

snarf21 wrote: post #20
fny wrote: post #7

For those who don't know, Druckenmiller is also very well known for changing his mind the minute facts change which is one of the hallmarks of good trading.

Very true. Plus this is nonsense. Interest rates are still far too low. There is wayyyyy too much money floating around in the system and global growth has slowed. That money will be chasing returns wherever they can find them and that has been the market and now real estate. Both of these will be net up over the next 10 years. It will be choppy for a few years as inflation is battled and interest rates rise a little…

Inflation adjusted won't that look rather flat or negative? Where are these real returns going to be coming from? Hot stocks haven't been paying appropriate dividends for the last two decades.
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