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European natural gas imports and storage reserves

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Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#271

Post by sidibe »

blub wrote: post #262
makomk wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nearly every country in Europe has been invading its neighbors for centuries, Which was horrendously destructive, and the two World Wars fought using more modern weaponry were particularly awful. In fact, avoiding similar wars in Europe was part of the original justification for creating the EU, Europe has benefited tremenously from the almost a century of near-peace it's experienced, and this makes Russia's recent…

If the goal was to avoid war in Europe, then keeping a buffer of neutral countries between Russia and the EU/NATO would have been the logical course of action, when failing to integrate Russia in the European family. It seems to me that the EU and US didn’t know when to stop and only looked at the potential economical and respectively geopolitical gains, while not giving enough weight to the risk of conflict when it…

You are ignoring the will of the people in a buffer state. In the EU they see prospering liberal democracies and on the other side it's permanent authoritarian kleptocracy, which by the way still sees them as part of a lost empire. Of course they are going to want a path to the EU.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#272

Post by The_Colonel »

gdy wrote: post #266
fastaguy88 wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m puzzled by this statement. Russia has been invaded by Germany several times. Has it been invaded by France, Spain, Poland, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, the Czech Republic, or The UK in the past 100 years? As a parochial American, what have I missed?

Poland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War Czechoslovaks, United Kingdom, France, Greece, Estonia, Serbia, Italy, Romania: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_intervention_in_the_Rus... Germany, Romania, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Croatia, Finland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Front_(World_War_II)

The intervention was a messy affair, but can hardly be called an invasion. Czechoslovak legion got to Russia to fight on its side and when Bolsheviks took over, mostly just tried to return home. The goals of other countries interventions in this chaos were diverse, but again, mostly not directed against Russia, some e.g. tried to prevent Germany from taking more Russian territory.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#273

Post by The_Colonel »

gdy wrote: post #267
The_Colonel wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're deflecting. The point is that CEE countries had a valid reason to fear Russian imperialism and acted accordingly.

You're deflecting. I remind you that I asked 'Why?' in response to your bold statement "Not letting e.g. Baltics into NATO/EU would almost certainly mean they have been already absorbed back into Russia. The rest of CEE would be vassalized."

And I responded to you that Russia has both long and recent history of imperialism in this region.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#274

Post by gdy »

The_Colonel wrote: post #272
gdy wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War Czechoslovaks, United Kingdom, France, Greece, Estonia, Serbia, Italy, Romania: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_intervention_in_the_Rus... Germany, Romania, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Croatia, Finland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Front_(World_War_II)

The intervention was a messy affair, but can hardly be called an invasion. Czechoslovak legion got to Russia to fight on its side and when Bolsheviks took over, mostly just tried to return home. The goals of other countries interventions in this chaos were diverse, but again, mostly not directed against Russia, some e.g. tried to prevent Germany from taking more Russian territory.

"but can hardly be called an invasion"

It was an invasion in support of one of the sides in Russian civil war. Russia made peace with Germany 1917 [0], the intervention started in 1918.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice_between_Russia_and_t...

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#275

Post by gdy »

The_Colonel wrote: post #273
gdy wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're deflecting. I remind you that I asked 'Why?' in response to your bold statement "Not letting e.g. Baltics into NATO/EU would almost certainly mean they have been already absorbed back into Russia. The rest of CEE would be vassalized."

And I responded to you that Russia has both long and recent history of imperialism in this region.

Just like almost anyone else which makes it a deflection and not an answer.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#276

Post by blub »

sidibe wrote: post #271
blub wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the goal was to avoid war in Europe, then keeping a buffer of neutral countries between Russia and the EU/NATO would have been the logical course of action, when failing to integrate Russia in the European family. It seems to me that the EU and US didn’t know when to stop and only looked at the potential economical and respectively geopolitical gains, while not giving enough weight to the risk of conflict when it…

You are ignoring the will of the people in a buffer state. In the EU they see prospering liberal democracies and on the other side it's permanent authoritarian kleptocracy, which by the way still sees them as part of a lost empire. Of course they are going to want a path to the EU.

You seem to be assuming that countries may decide on their own freely who they associate with. This is the case in international law, but not in reality, as can be seen in many examples concerning Russia or the US or China.

Realpolitik vs ideal-oriented policy. It wasn’t the buffer states driving the decision, it was the US and NATO. They had to choose between buffer states and expanding NATO. The developments in Ukraine were predictable and likely avoidable had they chosen differently - see the fate of Belarus or Georgia or Ukraine before 2004 and before 2014.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#277

Post by [deleted] »

trasz wrote: post #252
mythrwy wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you envision "dealing with Russia through force" going down just curiously? I would imagine there is a similar point of view in many Russians regarding the West (and they can make arguments about abuses and how intrinsically evil the other party is and patriotic jingles and all that too). So how, on that road, does this end? I think we know the answer and it really and truly is awful and the end of the world w…

I envision it exactly the same way it's already been going for the past six months: Russia has lost about half of their armed forces. The road ends the same way it ended last time, 30 years ago - in adjustment of Russian borders. Unless you claim that a state that can't even manufacture tanks or ordinary cars (or phones; Russia is wholly dependent on technology imports from Europe) is still capable of remanufacturing…

[deleted]

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#278

Post by mythrwy »

trasz wrote: post #252
mythrwy wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you envision "dealing with Russia through force" going down just curiously? I would imagine there is a similar point of view in many Russians regarding the West (and they can make arguments about abuses and how intrinsically evil the other party is and patriotic jingles and all that too). So how, on that road, does this end? I think we know the answer and it really and truly is awful and the end of the world w…

I envision it exactly the same way it's already been going for the past six months: Russia has lost about half of their armed forces. The road ends the same way it ended last time, 30 years ago - in adjustment of Russian borders. Unless you claim that a state that can't even manufacture tanks or ordinary cars (or phones; Russia is wholly dependent on technology imports from Europe) is still capable of remanufacturing…

Here's what I see happening.

Some back and forth, increasing desperate Neocons with no reverse gear pushing the thing. Western society is over indebted and teetering. Eventually the world explodes in fire, billions die, and some version of MAGA presides over a much reduced United States when it ends. (I'd rather believe your prediction but do not).

There might be a way to avoid the scenario (unlikely at this juncture but possible). It isn't with wishful (Russia has lost half it's armed forces) and hostile thinking though.

Just my opinion.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#279

Post by trasz »

mythrwy wrote: post #278
trasz wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I envision it exactly the same way it's already been going for the past six months: Russia has lost about half of their armed forces. The road ends the same way it ended last time, 30 years ago - in adjustment of Russian borders. Unless you claim that a state that can't even manufacture tanks or ordinary cars (or phones; Russia is wholly dependent on technology imports from Europe) is still capable of remanufacturing…

Here's what I see happening. Some back and forth, increasing desperate Neocons with no reverse gear pushing the thing. Western society is over indebted and teetering. Eventually the world explodes in fire, billions die, and some version of MAGA presides over a much reduced United States when it ends. (I'd rather believe your prediction but do not). There might be a way to avoid the scenario (unlikely at this juncture…

To the vast majority of the world this is a good thing, if anything - they get oil cheaper, because Russia can no longer sell it to the west. To US this means more money being pumped into the industry, which is good for their economy. EU... EU has already been through something much more hardcore - COVID - and temporarily shutting down some gas-dependent factories will reduce revenues, but it's not the end of the world. None of those are in any way in danger - Russia lost to Ukraine; one can only imagine how many hours it would take them to lose to, say, NATO. Or USA. Or EU alone. The world won't explode, simply because Russia has no capability to make it explode.

To Ukraine, this is about pretty much everything - Russians are quite open with their intention to erase Ukraine as a nation, and hundred thousand civilians killed in Mariupol alone proves they are serious.

And then there's Russia, USSR's retarded offspring. They will likely get a lifeline, but it's unlikely they will be allowed to keep the army.

Re: European natural gas imports and storage reserves

#280

Post by raarts »

MomoXenosaga wrote: post #126
sveme wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Norway and the Netherlands are the largest provider of pipeline gas to Germany at the moment, for example.

The Netherlands is switching off. Serendipity: just before Ukraine war the political decision was made to end gas extraction. Germany is not happy about that.

And neither are a lot of Dutch at the moment...
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