SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab • Hacker News Board

Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab

#11

Post by rr3932 » Sun, Sep 11, 2022, 2:13 PM UTC

lbriner wrote: post #3

What is interesting is that microselectronics seems to have improved almost every aspect of our lives except the ability to drive down the cost of semiconductor fab machines. They were saying that a single wafer etching machine could cost $100M. Yes, one machine. I assume this is why people aren't jumping on the bandwagon, the initial investment is enormous. I also suspect that the people who build these machines can…

There are companies working on cheaper, low volume, solutions and some things exist. For example: https://cdn.aff.yokogawa.com/9/400/details/minimal-fab-one-s...

It’s the kind of thing that if you need it, you know about it. But it doesn’t make national news because it’s not billions of dollars.

Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab

#12

Post by jpgvm » Sun, Sep 11, 2022, 2:18 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #2

> But several years down the road demand for PCs and other client devices will rise once again, and so will demand for memory. Which is why SK Hynix is already preparing for this with its Fab M15X expansion plan. It's great seeing the market react to the shortages. Of course these things take time but the way the semiconductor supply-side organizes such huge amounts of capital and large scale development projects is…

The fab game is just inherently boom and bust. The economics of a fab mean that it's built at massive cost but the unit economics are incredibly efficient so fabs then run at 100% utilisation regardless of demand until EOL. The result is that investing in a new fab isn't possible until demand is eclipsing current supply such that it can warrant the capital outlay. Boom and bust like clockwork.

Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab

#13

Post by rr3932 » Sun, Sep 11, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

philliphaydon wrote: post #10

bismuthcrystal wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, stepper machines do cost hundreds of millions but then one realizes they handle more than a hundred wafers per hour. At the end the machines do seem cheap.

Down side is the cost of entry if you want to be your own fab is too much. Do not feasible for a start up.

A startup has many options to get chips made. But if the startup was itself a fab then it needs to think outside the box. For example smaller wafers yield less ICs, so more $/IC. But, you also don’t need a $100M stepper, which helps.