SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
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Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#2> But several years down the road demand for PCs and other client devices will rise once again, and so will demand for memory. Which is why SK Hynix is already preparing for this with its Fab M15X expansion plan.
It's great seeing the market react to the shortages. Of course these things take time but the way the semiconductor supply-side organizes such huge amounts of capital and large scale development projects is quite fascinating.
Hopefully it will pay off in a decade and we won't have to worry about shortages for some time.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#3What is interesting is that microselectronics seems to have improved almost every aspect of our lives except the ability to drive down the cost of semiconductor fab machines.
They were saying that a single wafer etching machine could cost $100M. Yes, one machine. I assume this is why people aren't jumping on the bandwagon, the initial investment is enormous. I also suspect that the people who build these machines can't simply ramp up production of something so specialised.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#4What is interesting is that microselectronics seems to have improved almost every aspect of our lives except the ability to drive down the cost of semiconductor fab machines. They were saying that a single wafer etching machine could cost $100M. Yes, one machine. I assume this is why people aren't jumping on the bandwagon, the initial investment is enormous. I also suspect that the people who build these machines can…
But they have, we wouldn’t be able to design, build or operate those 100M machines without plenty of cutting edge micro-electronics at every step of the way.
When you look at the details of how these machines are made, the price tag almost seems low in the end.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#5What is interesting is that microselectronics seems to have improved almost every aspect of our lives except the ability to drive down the cost of semiconductor fab machines. They were saying that a single wafer etching machine could cost $100M. Yes, one machine. I assume this is why people aren't jumping on the bandwagon, the initial investment is enormous. I also suspect that the people who build these machines can…
But they have, we wouldn’t be able to design, build or operate those 100M machines without plenty of cutting edge micro-electronics at every step of the way. When you look at the details of how these machines are made, the price tag almost seems low in the end.
Yes, stepper machines do cost hundreds of millions but then one realizes they handle more than a hundred wafers per hour. At the end the machines do seem cheap.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#6I keep reading that semiconductors are on the cusp of a downturn and that the earnings multiples for eg AMD and Intel stock are too high as a result.
In contrast, there seems to be a crazy amount of investment going into fabs and improving chip processes.
These two things don't sound like they can both be true to me. Out of the two, surely the folks pitching 100B into building out their fabs have a better insight into demand than financial analysts.
Is there any way that this investment would make sense with a downturn in chip demand (/ is there some wall st malarkey going on / some other explanation that would make everyone's behavior congruent)?
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#7I keep reading that semiconductors are on the cusp of a downturn and that the earnings multiples for eg AMD and Intel stock are too high as a result. In contrast, there seems to be a crazy amount of investment going into fabs and improving chip processes. These two things don't sound like they can both be true to me. Out of the two, surely the folks pitching 100B into building out their fabs have a better insight int…
My guess is you're looking at cause and effect here. Profits are going to drop because all that extra capacity is going to come online soon.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#8I keep reading that semiconductors are on the cusp of a downturn and that the earnings multiples for eg AMD and Intel stock are too high as a result. In contrast, there seems to be a crazy amount of investment going into fabs and improving chip processes. These two things don't sound like they can both be true to me. Out of the two, surely the folks pitching 100B into building out their fabs have a better insight int…
My guess is you're looking at cause and effect here. Profits are going to drop because all that extra capacity is going to come online soon.
Only to then skyrocket as chips continue to be used in ever greater numbers/tech. War would increase demand. Switching to EVs would increase demand. Etc.
But, oddly, it’s hard to look at market valuations over the last three decades and conclude things are low priced.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
My guess is you're looking at cause and effect here. Profits are going to drop because all that extra capacity is going to come online soon.
Only to then skyrocket as chips continue to be used in ever greater numbers/tech. War would increase demand. Switching to EVs would increase demand. Etc. But, oddly, it’s hard to look at market valuations over the last three decades and conclude things are low priced.
> War would increase demand.
Re: SK Hynix Starts Prepping for Next Semiconductor Boom with $11B Memory Fab
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
But they have, we wouldn’t be able to design, build or operate those 100M machines without plenty of cutting edge micro-electronics at every step of the way. When you look at the details of how these machines are made, the price tag almost seems low in the end.
Yes, stepper machines do cost hundreds of millions but then one realizes they handle more than a hundred wafers per hour. At the end the machines do seem cheap.
Down side is the cost of entry if you want to be your own fab is too much. Do not feasible for a start up.