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Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

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Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#601
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the poster you're responding to, but a start is to allow external investigation into the labs by a third party.

The only way that could resolve these questions is if evidence of lab involvement was found . Not finding such evidence has WithinReason saying "There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement." one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist

There is enough reason to suspect something is going on though, especially that the CCP is known to lie and cover up.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#602
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way that could resolve these questions is if evidence of lab involvement was found . Not finding such evidence has WithinReason saying "There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement." one cannot prove that ghosts do not exist

There is enough reason to suspect something is going on though, especially that the CCP is known to lie and cover up.

> … something is going on…

Something not very mysterious —

2022 "Wildlife trade is likely the source of SARS-CoV-2"

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add8384

2003 "Asymptomatic animal traders prove positive for SARS virus"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1140695/

----

The scary part is that there's every reason to expect this to happen again and again.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this is neither similar to SARS-CoV-2 nor to BANAL-236 or BANAL-52 (the close relatives found in Laos).

The OP said the WIV didn't sample in Laos. Just wanted to show it did. Who knows what they sampled but haven't released - the WIV took down their virus sequence database in November 2019 and it has not been shared since.

I think, they didn't sample actively there. (That's what I read.) If someone shared samples with the WIV, this would have probably become known by now.

My problem is really with building evidence by "unknown unknowns": we don't know neither object, nor subject, nor circumstances, but, if we ignore all we do know, this is clear evidence. (Hum.)

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#604
post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because there were no documented cases of live bats or live pangolins being sold in that market. Was selling live bats or live pangolins legal?

I guess you are saying that because it was illegal, the Government couldn't find out if it happened. Something like Captain Renault in Casablanca being shocked that gambling was happening around there [1]. [1] https://noagenda.fandom.com/wiki/I%27m_shocked,_shocked_to_f... !

"The sale of wild animals without permits in China carries severe penalties involving steep fines and imprisonment. The tick study that documented the sale of illegal animals in the Huanan market observed, however, that the sellers were not too concerned about law enforcement, and that plainly illegal animals were openly sold. It is unclear whether any of the animal traders engaged in illegal wildlife commerce have been since found, fined or punished. The swift clear-out of the market may have been intended to protect them as well as the law-enforcement officers and local politicians who had looked the other way."

"The Contested Origin of SARS-CoV-2" 26 Nov 2021

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2021.2...

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#605

This github page is the most interesting (fairly apolitical) read on the lab leak hypothesis that I've seen to date: https://project-evidence.github.io/ After reading it, it seems most likely to me that patient 0 was a person who collected bats for the lab with insufficient safety equipment, but the article itself doesn't really present a strong conclusion.

"The Contested Origin of SARS-CoV-2" 26 Nov 2021

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2021.2...

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#606

I don’t go looking for covid discussions but they arrive in my feeds so i’m conscious i’m seeing a feed that someone(s) else curated for me and wanted me to view. That said… Is there any popular discussion or action regarding mitigation of both lab and natural origins for future? It seems that both avenues are possible. If we know both are possible, that seems like enough knowledge to move forward with exploring poss…

"A ban publicly endorsed by Xi Jinping was instituted on the consumption of almost all wild animals. … There are risks, however, that the economic pressures these actions place on wildlife farmers and traders will drive the lucrative business farther underground, or induce local officials, eager to spur economic recovery or susceptible to bribery, to tolerate it, as occurred in the wake of SARS. … Outside experts, however, question how well the bans are being enforced, and believe they do not go far enough, as demand is still fuelling a transboundary wildlife supply chain in neighbouring countries."

"The Contested Origin of SARS-CoV-2" 26 Nov 2021

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2021.2...

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is often missed is that chimeric viruses are easy to detect. The viral genome will show clear evidence of manipulation from random base insertions and clear homology with all the ancestral viruses. Hiding the signs of manipulation would either require vast amounts of time and resources (the expense and man power would make it very difficult to hide) or straight up science fiction technology. The chimeric origin…

That's a much better counter argument to the lab-origin. The >The chimeric origin hypothesis is not a plausible explanation for the origin of sars-cov2, which means the nature link is not relevant. seems to be incorrect. By a simple search: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744920/ Now the two distinct genomic lineages seem to indeed present a challenge to lab-leak hypothesis. It's explained in the origin…

Have you looked at Pekar's full model, as described mostly in the supplementary materials? A typical molecular clock approach wouldn't give anywhere near the accuracy necessary to exclude evolution of lineage B (just two SNPs away) in humans. Pekar instead builds layer upon layer of complexity, with dozens of reasonable but somewhat arbitrary judgment calls, in the same general direction as econometrics. From the shape of the resulting modeled phylogenetic tree, he purports to exclude a single introduction into humans.

I'm not aware of any case where any similar model has been shown to have predictive power, and there's inherently no way to validate this one against any physical data. So I believe this result has been grossly oversold, per my comments and links at

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32740568

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not really apolitical unfortunately. "We believe in holding the Chinese government accountable for changes in regulations and poplicies that can prevent another laboratory accident. " why not focus on international standards?

I think you're confusing justice for politics.

please elaborate... you seem to know more than the Scientific community ... your emphasis on Justice seems you have a direct connection to God and you seem to know what happened + can make moral judgments about people.

what to do if your Justice is wrong?

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the thread? The counter just takes the first paper she cites into account ... Not the second: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8337 Both of them are interesting reads. I find a natural cause now more plausible after reading them. Yet, of course nobody knows and we might not for a long time (or never).

The "two lineages" argument has been grossly oversold. They're just two SNPs apart, making it near-impossible to distinguish whether they evolved in animals (implying two introductions into humans) or in humans (after one introduction). If they were more different, then we could exclude evolution in humans, since it's unlikely the virus could spread for that long without causing enough sickness and death for someone…

agree with some of your statement, not with your sentiment. I find your comment slightly off topic. I asked the original commenter if they read the thread, because they answered with a link to a horribly weak rebuttal of the first paper and a even worse personal attack on the author of the tweets. so I should care if she attacks somebody "viciously" yet not if she is attacked in an even worse manner? Interesting.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "two lineages" argument has been grossly oversold. They're just two SNPs apart, making it near-impossible to distinguish whether they evolved in animals (implying two introductions into humans) or in humans (after one introduction). If they were more different, then we could exclude evolution in humans, since it's unlikely the virus could spread for that long without causing enough sickness and death for someone…

agree with some of your statement, not with your sentiment. I find your comment slightly off topic. I asked the original commenter if they read the thread, because they answered with a link to a horribly weak rebuttal of the first paper and a even worse personal attack on the author of the tweets. so I should care if she attacks somebody "viciously" yet not if she is attacked in an even worse manner? Interesting.

In your comment, you linked to Pekar's paper. You said that after reading it, you found a natural cause more plausible. I've also read that paper, and I'm much less convinced. That's what I wanted to discuss, and I don't see how it's off-topic. If anything I wrote came across as a defense of Ebright's tone or any aspect of that Thacker piece, then I expressed myself unclearly; for the avoidance of doubt, I think they're bad too.

Have you looked at Pekar's full model, as set out mostly in the supplementary materials? This isn't any standard molecular clock approach. It's a byzantine stack of plausible but somewhat arbitrary assumptions, ending in a simulated phylogenetic tree. The shape of that tree with one introduction doesn't match the shape of the actual tree constructed from the earliest real samples in Wuhan, so Pekar concludes there were two introductions. But I'm not aware that such an approach has ever made a successful prediction, and there's no circumstance in any field where I can imagine trusting a model of such complexity without validation. Their sensitivity analysis is meaningless, varying some irrelevant parameters but keeping what seems intuitively like the main determinant of that shape (the connectivity of their contact network) fixed.

You are correct that Alina Chan's thread doesn't address that aspect of Pekar's argument. Others have though, per the Twitter threads I linked. What do you think?

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