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‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

dariusforoux.com

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Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#51

Post by wpietri »

hindsightbias wrote: post #22

> Same strategy, same actions, different times, different outcomes. Becoming rich and famous is mostly a matter of luck. Best of luck with that view.

What's wrong with it?

Buffett himself acknowledges how lucky he was, so clearly seeing the role of luck is not incompatible with success: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/warren-buffett-says-the-key-...

You might also look at Richard Wiseman's work on why some people are "luckier" than others. E.g.: http://richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#52

Post by sokoloff »

hindsightbias wrote: post #20
sylens wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that what the author was saying though? These "affordable" private jets were really not providing the perks of a private jet; they were essentially just chartering a standard plane.

He’s saying that because he thinks they want to brag. But there’s a completely 100% rational reason for doing it that he completely ignores. Given the choice of going to a destination for the same price (or at least “affordable”), would you A) fly commercial B) fly private?

If I'm flying "private" with 30 other randoms, or commercial with 150 other randoms, I would 100% take the commercial option. The airliner is going to be more comfortable than any 30-person private jet and airlines are way better at handling mechanicals and irregular ops than most private operators who are doing the "Part 135 charter, but skirting right up against the Part 121 rules" game.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#53

Post by ohgodplsno »

People want to be rich and famous because they toil their entire lives and struggle as a middle class person, while they see bumbling idiots flying around doing what is the easiest job in the world. Every example that we are shown is that the rich and famous do about one month of real work in a whole year. It's a feeling of unfairness, of injustice.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#54

Post by ryeights »

hindsightbias wrote: post #22

> Same strategy, same actions, different times, different outcomes. Becoming rich and famous is mostly a matter of luck. Best of luck with that view.

And right back at you. To think otherwise is arrogant and self-aggrandizing.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#55

Post by rufus_foreman »

PuppyTailWags wrote: post #28
rufus_foreman wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> In 1945, as a high school sophomore, Buffett and a friend spent $25 to purchase a used pinball machine, which they placed in the local barber shop. Within months, they owned several machines in three different barber shops across Omaha. They sold the business later in the year for $1,200 That's ~$20k in today's dollars in a few months while still in high school. >> At 15, Warren made more than $175 monthly deliver…

A 15 year old today cannot make ~$3k a month delivering Washington Post newspapers. I think the point still stands what much of wealth gain is lucky opportunity windows, such as being alive during a time where a job like newspaper delivery pays 3k a month.

>> much of wealth gain is lucky opportunity windows

He sold gum, he sold Coke bottles, he sold magazines, he worked in a grocery store, he delivered newspapers, he sold golf balls, he sold stamps, he detailed cars, he invested in stock, he invested in land, he went to business school, he worked as an investment salesman, he worked as a stock analyst, he worked as a general partner, then chairman, then CEO at a company.

The lucky opportunity was 82 years to compound returns.

The question is why he wouldn't quit at 50 with a few hundred million and live off of the money instead of spending the next 42 years making more money which he will then give away to someone else to decide what to do with after he dies.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#56

Post by __derek__ »

rufus_foreman wrote: post #6

>> Person A was born in 1930. Person B was born seventy years later, in 2000. They both start applying the Graham investing strategy at a very early age, let’s say when they were 15 years. >> Person A becomes Warren Buffett, once the richest man on earth, who experienced one of the biggest booms in value stocks when he was young. Person B loses half of their money because value stocks are out of favor in the 2010s Bu…

Right. I started a comment picking at the Buffett example before seeing yours. Sure, he's been lucky to preserve his mental capacity into old age, but it's not fair to dismiss his persistence. In particular, Berkshire has one of the few mega-cap business models that's actually possible to replicate on a small-scale: start/buy a cash-flowing business, use the earnings to invest in more, repeat. It's easier if you figure out negative cash conversion cycles before everyone else, but that part isn't necessary to apply the model.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#57

Post by betwixthewires »

sbf501 wrote: post #27

In the Buffet example, OP left out that once you cross a certain threshold of wealth, it is almost impossible to NOT make more. There are hedge funds, exchanges, shell corporations, ways of diffusing assets across businesses, and other strategies that only people with hundreds of millions can access. Not to mention many laws basically stop applying to you once you achieve a certain level of wealth because the vehicle…

Its irrelevant in the example, because the Buffet-like person is only using one strategy in the example, available to everyone.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#58

Post by triceratops »

sschueller wrote: post #38
Invictus0 wrote: post #24

Getting rich isn't that hard. Just be born in America or Europe, most careers will afford a comfortable lifestyle. If you want to be richer than that, study engineering or business. Your average businessman does math at the 8th grade level. Getting famous also isn't that hard. Do something funny or creative and post it on TikTok, it's not that hard to get a video with 1e5 or 1e6 views. Hell, you can post cute videos…

You may be rich compared to someone in the poorest of nations but you can still be struggling to get by while working 3 jobs. Getting an engineering degree is also not that easy and for example in the US you will be jailed by huge dept for the rest of your life.

> you will be jailed by huge dept for the rest of your life.

Even $100k in student debt is not that huge on an engineer's salary. People regularly take on multiples of that debt to buy a house. "rest of your life" is an absurd exaggeration - and I'm saying this as someone who thinks the deck is totally stacked against students today.

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#59

Post by blibble »

hnov wrote: post #34
stavros wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're getting chauffeured around on a set schedule with 99 strangers, you're in a bus.

The experience is pretty different though, you save 30+ minutes at either end, you're not nickel and dimed, the crew and clientele tends to be nicer.

being trapped in a small jet full of people that want to be being seen for flying private seems like my personal version of hell

Re: ‘Why Am I Not Rich and Famous?’ The Delusion of Our Times

#60

Post by jedberg »

HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #48
schwartzworld wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 97.8 billion dollars, 97.5 billion or so of that was earned after he was 50 years old. To think he started off with a paltry $300 million. How much avocado toast do I need to not eat to get there?

Dammit. I totally forgot that I have an avocado ripening... should be perfect just about now, but ate the last of my brioche for breakfast. I'm seriously not kidding. I've never had avocado toast (was going to make guac) and I'm thinking that brioche avocado toast would be amazing.

It is pretty good with a nice ripe avocado. Just remember you have to choose between buying a house and eating that toast.
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