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Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

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Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#431
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fundamental difference with nuclear theory is that nukes don't self-assemble more nukes. The exponential replication of biological pandemics means there are very different optima. Whether that's in favor of GoF or anti-GoF, I can't say. It's a tradeoff between {increased risk of pandemic & more prepared for pandemic} vs {decreased risk of pandemic & less prepared for pandemic}. A sane response probably means we s…

That’s the fundamental difference from the anti-GOF side. The fundamental difference from the pro-GOF side is that understanding exactly how a nuke works gets you no closer to being able to protect a population from nukes because there is no such thing as a nuke vaccine. Your suggestion seems like a likely workable compromise if one of those labs is primarily in the US/Euro sphere and the other is primarily in the Ru…

Yeah, I pontificated about physical location for a while and... wow, that'd be a difficult set of negotiations.

Probably Switzerland, because, hey, Swiss and history.

Other than that, it's almost have to be as neutral / third-party of a state as you could find.

Maybe New Zealand or one of the small island nations that's willing to declare neutrality in exchange for hosting?

Islands and caves are hard to argue against.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#432
post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if the probability is very small we have to dig in deeper to prevent the next catastrophe. There are very small chances of many catastrophes that we happily ignore. Among the less small ones, off the top of my head: a large earthquake on the San Andreas fault and the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting.

Can we prevent a volcano erupting? No. Can we prevent a lab leak? Yes. I wonder why people are soooo resistant to this idea and make up a myriad bad arguments.

Because we get annoyed when people insinuate that pointing out features of reality are evidence of a conspiratorial cabal.

Can we prevent a lab leak? Not really insofar as humans are less than perfect individuals.

Pretending we hadn't discovered atomic fission would have been just as dangerous as ignoring biological threats.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#433
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really that many times. I understand that most of the major viral pathogens have emerged in the last 10,000 years, since urban society replaced hunter-gatherer culture. It has not been difficult to bring what naturally evolved under control in developed countries.

No, it was the neolithic, and in particular animal husbandry that was the culprit rather than simply urbanization which was a later emergence. And when you contrast new world peoples who had very few animals to domesticate, there's only one disease thought to have originated there: syphilis . This is despite the records of highly concentrated populations in various regions in the New World.

"In the world our human immune system evolved in hundreds of thousands of years ago, infectious diseases could not become a major problem because, with a few exceptions, when you survive an infectious disease, you usually don’t get it again. Either it kills you or it leaves you completely immune to it for the rest of your life. For the vast majority of human history our species lived in small tribes that were spread thin and, for all intents and purposes, pretty isolated from each other. An infectious disease simply could not become a dangerous threat and establish itself in our ancestors effectively. Because if it infected a tribe, it would infect every available person in no time and then die off because there would be no one left to jump over. So our evolution did not really have to consider these sorts of pathogens that much.

"As we became farmers and city dwellers our lifestyle changed forever—and so did the diseases that targeted us. Living close together created a perfect breeding ground for infectious diseases. Suddenly, in evolutionary terms, there were hundreds or even thousands of victims to infect. As our ancestors were not aware of the nature of microorganisms or even basic hygiene and they did not yet possess tools like soap and indoor plumbing, there was not much they could do—on the contrary, their lack of understanding made things worse.

"And when they began domesticating and living together with animals in close quarters, often even sleeping in the same rooms, some pathogens jumped over. Our new lifestyle turned out to be the perfect environment for the pathogens of our new animal friends, to adapt to humans and vice versa. As a consequence, virtually every infectious disease we know today arose in the last ten thousand years. From cholera, smallpox, measles, influenza, and the common cold to chicken pox."

Immune by Philipp Dettmer

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#434
post #428
post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did I say you can't ask questions? I said asking questions is a bad rhetorical device to use on this topic. OP isn't an inquisitive mind looking for answers to those questions. They are trying to convince us of a particular viewpoint due to the implied answers to those questions.

Please give us a comprehensive list of topics for which asking questions is a bad rhetorical device. I'd like to understand the basis for your claim, and how you presume to know what's in OP's mind?

>Please give us a comprehensive list of topics for which asking questions is a bad rhetorical device.

There is no complete list. Topics exist on a spectrum and some are completely poisoned by conspiracy thinking. If some anonymous person on the internet asks "how many people really died during the Holocaust?" I am going to assume bad faith before I assume honest knowledge seeking. Covid deniers aren't that extreme, but they have certainly gotten to a point in which I view rhetorical questions with skepticism.

>I'd like to understand the basis for your claim, and how you presume to know what's in OP's mind?

I don't have to "presume to know what's in OP's mind" in terms of those questions. They told us. They said "If you don't admit these (now-obvious) facts". They are obviously using the questions rhetorically.

My underlying point is in fact that I can't read OP's mind in regard to their motivation. That is what makes this a bad rhetorical device. It is guilty of bad faith through association. If OP's intent is for a good faith discussion, they should have used a different rhetorical style to avoid that association.

And once again, this is not an argument about whether OP's original point was correct or not. That isn't what the comments I was replying to were discussing and it isn't what I said in any of my comments.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#435
post #426
post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm saying that there's no evidence of any bats closer to Wuhan with SARS-like coronaviruses That's not all you're saying, though. You're extrapolating from that fact to argue that bats closer to Wuhan with SARS-like coronaviruses are therefore unlikely to be present .[1] And no, that's not correct. Viruses span continent-wide gaps all the time, we don't need any special evidence to cite that as a possibility. [1]…

No, I'm not saying that. Please don't put words in my mouth. I haven't said a single thing here about "a man-made descendent", or whether those bats are "likely" to be present or not. I haven't even said that I agree with Ebright or believe in any kind of lab-leak scenario. All I've said is that your accusation of "spin" - because Ebright simply stated what all existing evidence points to, that the closest candidate…

> Ebright simply stated what all existing evidence points to, that the closest candidate bats are 1000 miles away

You added the word "candidate". I agree with what you wrote. Your framing doesn't imply an incorrect conclusion, though it also lacks any rhetorical punch (probably the reason Ebright skipped it) since we don't have any "candidate" leak evidence either. Good job.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#436
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blaming process failures on individuals rarely yields any results. Can you give me one example of a time it worked; where merely punishing an individual without making any process changes has prevented a class of accidents since that incident to now? My take is that any process relying on a single individual is ultimately a failure. All sorts of things happen to individuals, including losing the ability to fear the c…

I actually assume the policy is fine. Part of policy is, necessarily, enforcement. In any safety critical policy, there is someone that holds final accountability. That accountability is the pressure, the policy, that guarantees the policy is followed. This is why we have the enforcement of laws, and not just the laws themselves. Criminal negligence is a possibility, happens frequently, and is enforced often, around…

> Is what keeps them honest/careful.

A better way to phrase it would be, it's what ensures that the words of the policy become actions.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#437
post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of any population (not just USA) are ignorant about most topics. Masses are not intelligent. This is particularly true of a range of topics, from economics and financial domains to anything in the sciences and engineering. The masses are also really bad at being intelligent about anything that requires a long term view or planning. Given that, it is probably fair to say that the intelligent people are li…

I’d be curious to get a better understanding of the “solar energy reali[sm]” that you mentioned. It sounds like you’re suggesting that solar is less practical or efficient than we’ve been led to believe. I’ve got at least 3 neighbors by me with arrays that effectively eliminate their monthly home energy costs, that seems pretty great. Is that not a realistic expectation for most people with the time/money to invest i…

A few things.

At the home level, I would ask if you have actually spoken to these neighbors and learned if they have significant monthly costs electricity costs. Most of my neighbors still spend in the order of $200 to $300 per month after solar installation. There are many reasons for this. I bought my system and did all the work myself. Not only is my system about twice the size of anything around me (Google satellite view is great for this), it doesn't cost me a dime once installed. Most of my neighbors got scammed into various forms of leasing. They have a lease payment in the $150/month+ range for half the system (typically 4 to 6 kilowatt vs. my 13 kW. The combination of an undersized system and living in an area where constant air conditioning is a must, means most of them are paying for electricity every month despite having solar. I don't. In fact, the power company usually owes me money.

The first reality is that none of them would be able to use their solar panels to charge electric cars. They can't. They can barely run their homes with them. And, frankly, I can't. Even with a 13 kW system, I can't use it to charge electric cars. It simply isn't enough. Or more importantly, it is unreliable and highly variable in performance.

This is where we start getting into the technical realities of solar, with the analysis starting at the most basic small system "home" level and then expanding out into large-scale installations.

Here's a picture of my system generating power on a good day:

https://i.imgur.com/Fl8ARJd.png

Notice the peak isn't 13 kW, but rather about 10 kW. I have reached 11 kW and never more than that. There are many reasons for this. One of them is that solar panels have a negative temperature coefficient, which means they generate less power as they get hot. They always get hot. Their advertised rating is for what I would call ideal conditions. Most people think of solar panels as these magical things that make power. Well, they are not.

As the evaluation expands into utility-scale solar it is crucially important to understand what this curve means. It is an inverted parabola. Which means the area under the curve, the integral of that function, is 2/3 the area under the enclosing constant power rectangle. If we draw a rectangle with the top line at 10 kW, the area under that rectangle is the energy produced. The area for a solar system with the same peak power is 2/3 that of the rectangle. In other words, it can only generate --on a good day-- 67% of the total energy. Another way to put is is: In order to generate the same energy you need a system that is 1.5 times larger (1 / 0.67). I would have to expand my system to 20 kW in order to have the equivalent of the constant power 10 kW output one would get from a conventional power plan (a fraction of the total output, of course).

I said "on a good day". That is the other reality-vs-fantasy aspect of solar and one of the reasons for which your neighbors might be paying a lot more for electricity than they thought they would when they got their systems. Here's another picture from my system:

https://i.imgur.com/SOr30bX.png

What are those horrendous dips that reduce power by as much as 50%?

Clouds.

Yup. Clouds, and, in general, the weather and atmospheric dirt and dust affect solar in dramatic ways. My system is oversized enough that I come out OK at the end of the month. Not so for my neighbors. These dips absolutely kill your ability to make power reliably and reduce your average energy output.

This is what a typical month could look like:

https://i.imgur.com/bGuCH2F.png

Here you can see daily performance that results on peaks of about 50 kWh (energy generation, the integral of power over time) down to about 10 kWh.

This is brutal. What it means, in no uncertain terms, is, if we were talking about utility scale solar, having to build an array that is five times larger than needed just to compensate for this issue. I stress: Just this one issue.

Remember the 2/3 of the area under the constant power curve? That meant you need a system that is 1.5 times larger. Now you have to take that and multiply it by five. That means 7.5 times larger to account for both the parabolic power curve and fluctuations in power output.

And yet, we are not done. Photovoltaic systems only generate power for roughly 12 hours per day. Once could argue it's less than that because the early and late hours make very little power. Keeping the assumption at twelve hours, well, we want power for 24 hours, not 12. Which means we need a large number of batteries to store power for use at night.

That's great. However, the energy to charge the batteries has to come from somewhere. If that somewhere is the same solar array, we have to build an even larger version of what we have. Super simple numbers: We need to double it! If we want the same average energy output 24/7 we need to store what we can make during the day on a massive set of batteries. These batteries require their own separate array. The existing array is delivering power you will use for other applications.

This is how we reach a multiplier somewhere in the order of 15. You need a system that is 15 times the required peak constant power output and enough batteries to maintain that as the sun comes down. The real number is likely much larger than that due to system and transmission efficiency realities.

I'll stop here and just mention that the issues go far beyond that. For example, you can't cover 100% of a utility-scale land area with panels because of practical shading and construction/maintenance access requirements. Panels have a lifespan of about 15 years. It is probably the same for electronics. An installation with a million panels is going to be a maintenance nightmare at some point, with the potential of having to replace a million panels every fifteen years or so. And the batteries? I don't even want to think about that.

A million panels sounds like a lot? Assuming a nominal label (not real output) power rating of 400 W per panel that is only 400 MW theoretical output. Given the analysis above, this size power plan isn't likely to be able to produce much more than, say, 20 MW to 40 MW equivalent constant power 24/7. For a sense of proportion, a typical nuclear power plant produced 1000 MW 24/7/365. In other words, you might need somewhere in the range of 25 million to 50 million panels (and zillions of batteries) to build the equivalent of a 1 GW nuclear power plant.

That, in a nutshell, is what I am talking about when I speak of the reality vs. fantasy of solar. It isn't magical. It isn't reliable. It might not even be very green at all once we really look at not only the scale, but the life cycle when compared to other technologies (that is to say, mainly nuclear).

It is a fantasy to believe that the electric vehicle revolution will be powered by solar on roofs. Nobody is going to install the size systems required to power their homes and, at the same time, charge multiple vehicles per household. In order to charge a couple of vehicles you probably need at least three times the system size I have as well as a mass of batteries to allow access to energy when needed. That probably means somewhere in the 30 kW to 50 kW range per household. That isn't going to happen.

My take away after really looking at this is that we better get behind nuclear in a massive way. If we throw money at solar all we would accomplish is to engage in the largest every transfer of wealth and economic power from the West to China. All photovoltaic solar pretty much comes form China. Build ridiculous scales of solar and we will give China economic supremacy over the rest of the world for, well, probably a century or more. Imagine a business where billions of solar panels and electronic components have to be replaced every 15 to 20 years and all of that hardware comes from China. In one word: That would be beyond stupid. It would be like becoming drug addicts, with China as our drug dealer.

We have to go nuclear. It's the only way.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#438
post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of any population (not just USA) are ignorant about most topics. Masses are not intelligent. This is particularly true of a range of topics, from economics and financial domains to anything in the sciences and engineering. The masses are also really bad at being intelligent about anything that requires a long term view or planning. Given that, it is probably fair to say that the intelligent people are li…

I’d be curious to get a better understanding of the “solar energy reali[sm]” that you mentioned. It sounds like you’re suggesting that solar is less practical or efficient than we’ve been led to believe. I’ve got at least 3 neighbors by me with arrays that effectively eliminate their monthly home energy costs, that seems pretty great. Is that not a realistic expectation for most people with the time/money to invest i…

> that effectively eliminate their monthly home energy costs

The average payback, in the US, is 12 years. Until that time, the energy cost isn't eliminated, it has shifted to the payment of those panels, along with interest, connection fees, maintenance, and added taxes and insurance. For some, the numbers might not make sense.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they? Would you allow your neighbours to search your home and inspect your computer as soon as they claim that you are a pedophile?

Probably not the comparison you want to make. If your door blew open in a strong wind one day and a bunch of CP flew out of it and around town, you probably wouldn't have a choice, no matter how convincing your story of the previous tenant being a sicko was.

If CP were to be compared to virus, then all households would have some.

New virus emerge naturally all the time, the same cannot be said for CP.

Also things can go wrong just due to bad luck. Someone's home caught fire doesn't necessary mean they are committing insurance fraud; majority of them will be genuine accidents.

Re: Covid: Summary of lab-origin hypothesis

#440

I which they didn't start with 1). Because there is "a" wild life market in Wuhan which does sell wild bats from far away (and many other animals which can get/transmit covid).

Favorite theory links the two. Animals infected in lab were supposed to be disposed of, but instead sold at the market. It isn’t necessarily that far-fetched: if you are tasked with incinerating a rare animal that you know is going for cash in the nearby market, there is temptation to sell it instead of destroying.
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