How many times has this been predicted in my lifetime?
How many pandemics in your lifetime?
San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
71–80 of 622 posts
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#72I have some knowledge of companies that went to WFH and are trying to sublease at a quarter of what they're paying in rent and they can't find a tenant.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#73In a way I'm glad that a large chunk of San Francisco's population is getting exactly what they have wanted for years – to get rid of big tech takeover of the city. Maybe they will actually fare better with a significantly reduced number of tech workers and jobs, or maybe they won't. At least we'll know for certain now, and can stop all the whining.
Worked well for Detroit
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The underlying issue is government preventing development of both houses and office space. We live in a democracy. The underlying problem of government is voters. Most home owners ( especially in The Bay) refuse to allow anyone to build anything because they see that as a threat to their home value.
> We live in a democracy. The underlying problem of government is voters. Pretty sure dictatorships have the same problem with improper zoning.
See China and 3 gorge dams
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#75Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps…
They’re doing this in the UK, and there’s something seriously dystopian about the space it ends up creating somehow. I’m sure it’s better than nothing, but it’s not ideal.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#76I had always thought the supposed end of automaker dominance Detroit-style doomsday scenario was impossible for S.F., but turns out the normalization of remote work was all it took. The American software industry didn't need to end, it just had to go home.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#77Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps…
Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations. And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of…
It's like efforts to convert abandoned malls into apartments. Hard to even imagine living in a mall and the exorbitant cost to convert into something livable. Most people would rather be homeless than living in such a terrifying environment.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations. And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of…
Maybe SF should relax the legal requirements of residential space, then? If they choose not to build sufficient housing... they can at least choose to use what they have. A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.
> A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.
You make this legal and tomorrow every RE developer stops putting in windows.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe SF should relax the legal requirements of residential space, then? If they choose not to build sufficient housing... they can at least choose to use what they have. A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.
But that is also key to the problem: the cost to convert these buildings is already prohibitively expensive, and converting them into dormitories cannot possibly recoup the cost. It's like how sometimes it just doesn't make sense to refactor code because it is fundamentally designed for a different purpose. Sure you can grind it out but will it be any better or cheaper than starting fresh?
I mean, SF residential prices are still super high, it seems like it oughta pencil out.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations. And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of…
Maybe SF should relax the legal requirements of residential space, then? If they choose not to build sufficient housing... they can at least choose to use what they have. A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.
> Maybe X should relax the legal requirements of Y
That's a slippery slope. Lots of legal requirements exist to protect someone. Legal requirements for windows are pretty reasonable to ensure people have at least some bare minimum of access to natural light in their home, rather than just living in a box.