Live data from Hacker News

San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

sfstandard.com

21–30 of 622 posts

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#21
post #2

Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps…

Those commercial spaces make it incredibly easy to build them however you like. The access to plumbing and electrical would make it simple to convert them into small dwellings.

Modern office buildings only have plumbing available in the center of the building. The flooring is designed to function as a highly efficient membrane. If you start punching holes in the flooring to place plumbing and toilets away from the central core you weaken the floor membrane to the point where it loses the required structural integrity. If you try to build raised flooring to provide space for the plumbing the cost of the raised flooring becomes prohibitive.

For most large modern office buildings it is cheaper to take them down and build new than to try to retrofit them for residential use.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#26
post #8
post #2

Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps…

Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations. And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of…

Can they be converted into huge units with an open floor plan and bathroom/kitchen near the center?

If someone can figure out how to make it look cool, office conversions could be the 2020s version of the warehouse loft.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#27

You would have to be stark raving mad to open a business in San Francisco. Not only is the downtown filthy and unsafe, but the government, when it can stir itself from its torpid incompetence, is absolutely malevolent towards businesses.

> but the government ... is absolutely malevolent towards businesses.

How so?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#28
post #2

Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps…

Sure the Bay Area housing crisis can be pretty easily solved if you throw zoning laws out of the window. Don't need to convert office space for that.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#29
post #19
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations. And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of…

Maybe SF should relax the legal requirements of residential space, then? If they choose not to build sufficient housing... they can at least choose to use what they have. A windowless room with a community bathroom doesn't sound appealing, but at a certain price point it's better than nothing.

As long as its safe to occupy for permanent living it should get permitted, not sure how its much different than a hostel/rooming house-like arrangement. You don't need a kitchen and bathroom in your unit to live.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#30

Residential crash is potentially already upon us, at least in the outskirts (East Bay for me). We've had our house on the market for over a month now, and nobody else in the neighborhood is selling either. Big changes from only 3 months ago, when sellers were closing in days.

OH NO A WHOLE MONTH!!

Inventory of listed homes remains extremely low. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUCA

Median days on market still near all-time lows

SF: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMAR41860

Cal: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARCA

USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS

Post reply on HN