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Earlier quoted context omitted.
An important question. For the sake of adjusting priors here is a list of biosecurity incidents: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity... SARS itself leaked from the lab 4 times, once from a BSL-4 lab.
* SARS*, including the original SARS virus (3 times, per page) and SARS-CoV-2 (1 time, post-pandemic)
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I can't agree with this anymore. For some reason, this lab isn't allowed to be inspected and investigated thoroughly. So there is something wrong, likely, it's where COVID19 came from or else, why not just allow an investigation team in to remove all doubts.
Not allowing investigation is not necessary conspiracy to cover up known evidence. It might just be an admission that there is a nonzero chance there is evidence there... and if the world finds that, there could be dire consequences if people decide China should be held liable.
Glasnost is not standard policy in China and they have very strong reasons not to change that for reasons which have nothing to do with what did or didn't happen in the Wuhan lab. In the unlikely event the CCCP has complete certainty about what happened which completely exonerates the lab, they still wouldn't want to release anything other than controlled media briefings. If you start allowing international observers in every time you say something wasn't your fault, people can draw some much stronger inferences when you don't...
(Not to mention that there's little reason to believe the higher reaches of the CCCP know the answer to the question of whether there's any evidence any better than the average person. They're not virologists, and if evidence of lab malpractice exists the virologists aren't exactly incentivised to incriminate themselves by sharing it with them)
This is a very simple question. You just need 1 CSV file. A CSV file with a list of all BioWeaponsLabs and their coordinates. Then for every point on earth compute distance from nearest BioWeaponsLabs. This will give you a heatmap for pr(labLeak|pandemic). Few hrs work. Right? Has anyone done this yet?
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If people are creating super viruses. It kind of matters a lot.
People are creating super viruses, regardless of the origin of this one. Act accordingly.
Knowing the exact sequence of events that led to the pandemic is extremely important, and not only as research for future pandemics. There is reasonable doubt that the Wuhan lab had something to do with the virus. I'm measuring my words carefully here because we don't have incriminating evidence. But there has been enough material published over the last 2 years to warrant suspicion.
Other than the second tweet in the thread (which source is questionable, see edit below), no sources are provided. Does anyone have a list of sources for the claims in the remaining eight tweets? It's a compelling list of "facts" but without sources and an understanding of the science it's difficult to ascertain whether this is a genuinely strong argument by a "blue check mark" academic. Edit: This is the Nature edit…
Well, 2 things:
1. An animal could be the source of the virus which could be leaked from a lab. Even with the lab leak hypothesis an animal is part of the chain, just not the last step.
2. There is also no evidence that the epidemic had no lab involvement. COVID was never found in any animal from the Huanan market.
Other than the second tweet in the thread (which source is questionable, see edit below), no sources are provided. Does anyone have a list of sources for the claims in the remaining eight tweets? It's a compelling list of "facts" but without sources and an understanding of the science it's difficult to ascertain whether this is a genuinely strong argument by a "blue check mark" academic. Edit: This is the Nature edit…
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/...
The main point that no scientists seems to want to mention is the clear cut and well defined conflict of interest in determining the origins. How would the scientists of the future ask for funding if it turns out they themselves directly caused an epidemic? It is a black eye for science, it provides ammunition to the "anti-science" crowd. In contrast scientists are in the drivers position if the cause was all natural…
If you click on the link in the thread, there's an editor's note clarifying that this paper is being used to prop up dodgy claims, for which there's no evidence. The main issue I have with the 'lab leak' theory is that I haven't seen much evidence one way or another. Hitchens' razor applies- what can be stated without evidence can be as easily dismissed without evidence. I personally don't see any issue with the idea…
I think it's important to set aside the question of weather Covid was made in a lab. For the sake of argument let's say it was not. There were proposals to do the kind of experimental work that would have created a virus very much like Covid-19. Those who wrote the proposal and shopped it around for funding probably considered it relatively harmless to do, both in a lab, and should it accidentally get out (it's just…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's important to set aside the question of weather Covid was made in a lab. For the sake of argument let's say it was not. There were proposals to do the kind of experimental work that would have created a virus very much like Covid-19. Those who wrote the proposal and shopped it around for funding probably considered it relatively harmless to do, both in a lab, and should it accidentally get out (it's just…
> The fact remains that there are people out there who want to make stuff like that in a lab. That kind of "work" needs to stop. No we need much more of such work. Why do you think we had a vaccine so fast? We were able to create an Ebola vaccine before?
The main point that no scientists seems to want to mention is the clear cut and well defined conflict of interest in determining the origins. How would the scientists of the future ask for funding if it turns out they themselves directly caused an epidemic? It is a black eye for science, it provides ammunition to the "anti-science" crowd. In contrast scientists are in the drivers position if the cause was all natural…
Whatever about the strength of the natural origin theory, the idea that there's a conspiracy of silence from all the scientists in the world (including ones who would love to give the Chinese authorities a black eye) just doesn't seem plausible. You said it yourself - all it takes is a single dissenter to bury a paper.