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The quantum computing bubble

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31–40 of 144 posts

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#31

> at some point the claims will be found out and the funding will dry up. Someone hasn't been watching the cryptocurrency markets. That's partly tongue in cheek. But there are countless examples of the market remaining irrational longer than one can stay solvent. Witness the continued success of BTC and Ether, amid newer options that outperform them on every tech-related metric, often by many orders of magnitude. I c…

>> I conclude that marketing hype and the first mover advantage form the vast bulk of valuation in a novel tech that people don't understand.

Well said. Having worked in the blockchain space as a developer and founder since 2017, I've also come to the same conclusion. The formula for success is hype + first mover advantage - Aside from that; it's all about social climbing and politics around those projects.

It's surprising how long the first-mover advantage advantage lasts and it's weird to see that even developers who should know better are getting pulled into learning poorly designed (or outdated) technologies. They're conflating the financial achievements of projects with their technological achievements.

I guess that's what happens when big investors are laser-focused on making as much money as possible instead of also trying to drive innovation forward.

IMO, the inability to separate the two is a major reason why we have such significant financial bubbles in the tech sector.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#32

I think his model of the situation is short-sighted, to say nothing of the callbacks to that management principle involving transistors. If you're thinking that the whole purpose of QC will be quickly subsumed by wide algorithms with superpolynomial speedup, you might be missing the point. It's about how computers are built, not about stuffing one specific abstraction into another. If suddenly we discover we can buil…

I think most people, including the author, would agree QC should be funded for fundamental research reasons. But that is clearly not the way it is being pitched to VC. Right now there is no clear use-case, that's what I felt he was warning against. If nothing materialises soon, he's probably correct to say this is a bubble.

I figure it's more like a standoff between these shops. Just consider that historically, no one would want to build ENIAC, everyone would want to design the solid-state transistor.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#33

> at some point the claims will be found out and the funding will dry up. Someone hasn't been watching the cryptocurrency markets. That's partly tongue in cheek. But there are countless examples of the market remaining irrational longer than one can stay solvent. Witness the continued success of BTC and Ether, amid newer options that outperform them on every tech-related metric, often by many orders of magnitude. I c…

> "amid newer options that outperform them on every tech-related metric"

What outperforms Bitcoin in terms of decentralization, scalability, and resilience?

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#34
post #30

How did this come about? I think it's a very simple case of misunderstanding and overpromising. There are many interdisciplinary fields that mesh with computation. We have DNA computers and neural turing machines. QC is a subfield of quantum mechanics, one of many with some interesting applications but nothing shows that it has open-ended potential to revolutionize computation. But, it has the word 'computation' in i…

> nothing shows that it has open-ended potential to revolutionize computation

Well, we do know that P The hope was for applications in new areas like materials and drug design. The author has posted a link to one paper suggesting that we might not see exponential speedups in chemical simulations, but that's not an outright refutation either.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#35

I have a fair amount of experience in this space. It’s like, at a vacuum tube era, at best. There is a definite opportunity for advancement, but it is still extremely early. We are building user interfaces that make it easier to “play around” with quantum computing phenomena—especially with music and art—with the idea that our aesthetic sensibilities may help drive discovery.

> It’s like, at a vacuum tube era, at best.

How is it even remotely close?

Vacuum tubes were a thriving industry, producing many groundbreaking products and services.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#37

I have a fair amount of experience in this space. It’s like, at a vacuum tube era, at best. There is a definite opportunity for advancement, but it is still extremely early. We are building user interfaces that make it easier to “play around” with quantum computing phenomena—especially with music and art—with the idea that our aesthetic sensibilities may help drive discovery.

Could you share some links to your work / research re: interfaces with focus on art? I'd be very interested to check it out.

https://quantumdelta.nl/ is some kind of hub but landing pages offer too much hype and too little content :)

thank you.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#38

I have a fair amount of experience in this space. It’s like, at a vacuum tube era, at best. There is a definite opportunity for advancement, but it is still extremely early. We are building user interfaces that make it easier to “play around” with quantum computing phenomena—especially with music and art—with the idea that our aesthetic sensibilities may help drive discovery.

> It’s like, at a vacuum tube era, at best. How is it even remotely close? Vacuum tubes were a thriving industry, producing many groundbreaking products and services.

Yet before that stage, they were a new tech, no one even had ideas of how to use.

So far, quantum computing is used in labs, not for any real useful purpose.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#39
This is how I think about it.

It's insurance money. If you're a manager of a big company like IBM, Microsoft or Google, you have to align your current product portfolio and future portfolio in such a way that shows your investor that your company will keep growing, even if your current products are stagnant.

You can surely say Quantum computing won't do much in next 5 years. But what about 10 years? 20 years? 30 years? The farther you look into the future, the bigger the probability of having a huge tech breakthrough that could give the company who has it a massive edge on the market.

Even if you have a chance of 1% of having a sort of transistor revolution from QC, it becomes a race to the bottom. If Google starts researching it, IBM will follow suit, and so will Microsoft. If in 30 years this turns out to be a big deal, no one will be 30 years behind.

Re: The quantum computing bubble

#40
post #6

There’s also billions going into commercial fusion reactors, which haven’t turned net positive yet. The goal of the investment is to build that capability tho, same (I think?) as with quantum computing. Weird critique imo.

The physics underpinning fusion was proven in the 1950's. Since then it's been an engineering problem.

The physics underpinning qc was arguably proven in the 2020's. It's not quite done (in the way that fusion was not quite done in the 50's) but there is a fairly clear set of demonstrations that QC's with error correction are possible. However the engineering barriers are fierce and there is still a possibility that they are insurmountable. In addition there are concerns that while QC will work the class of problems that is NP and also BQP may be very small. Even if a problem is in that group then it may be that the algorithms we have are not superquadratic or quadratic - meaning that the improvement that they offer over classical algorithms may be marginal.

Worse, there are often very good heuristic approaches to some of these problems which means that although a superquadratic QC approach would be an amazing breakthrough of computer science (genuinely amazing and worthy of accolades and prizes and fundamentally important for our understanding of the universe etc) it would offer only marginal economic value (possibly). Now, this is not true of some problems where there are exponential explosions and no good heuristics... but there is an even worse catch.. Which is that the quantum algorithms offer computer scientists fresh insight into what's tripping up the classical approaches. In this scenario it can be that an amazing breakthrough happens in QC, and someone uses that to get an insight that pushes the classical approach close enough to the QC approach as to render the QC approach marginal.

The theoretical picture is moving very fast though - so we will have to see.

On the other hand the practical side is moving more slowly. We see announcements that make one think that a Moore's law type of scaling is happening but hidden in the small print there are often (always as far I can decode) catches that mean that while the results look great they are still very much mired in problems. For example, are all the bits on a QC useable at once? Can they be used to form an actual algorithm? How long does the machine run for? How long does it take to start? Some of the answers are jarring - often only a small subset of a machine can be used in an actual problem solving episode; sometimes the machines run for a few steps only; sometimes the machines take 24hrs or longer to start.

It has taken 70 years to nearly build fusion reactors, it took 70 years to create mRNA vaccines. It may well take 70 years (from now) to build practical, valuable quantum computers. And something could go wrong on that path that just renders them moot.

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