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The dictatorship of the articulate

florentcrivello.com

51–60 of 409 posts

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#51

> It’s a funny coincidence that the field where we’re seeing the most innovation happens to be the one we regulated least, and that the fields that got worse are the most regulated ones. Well. This is insinuating that more regulation reduced innovation. But it's confusing correlation with causation. The things that are the most regulated are also the ones with failure is more costly. So maybe _that_ is the reason why…

That argument may work with something like medical care, but housing and college tuition don't fall into that category as cleanly. With medicine, the cost of failure is everything up to and including death. With housing, the "cost of failure" is not having a house. Similarly for college, the cost of failure is not graduating college. Neither of these are good outcomes, obviously, but the solution to not having a hous…

Firstly, the cost of not having a house for a prolonged period in the north half of the US is death (in the winter). Secondly, there are a lot of other really bad failure cases. For example, houses burning down, poisoning people (via lead, asbestos or others), destroyed in earthquakes, etc. A lot of these can have immediate and severe negative costs for both the people living in them and for society as a whole.

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#52

The world is complex now, it was simple back then, let me explain. I was thinking the other day, in 1950, you could drop a kid randomly anywhere on the map (say the U.S. but not necessarily), he would easily find its way: to the farm, to the factory, to the military or to the church. Everything would be ok for the 1950 kid youd drop anywhere. He would be fine and happy. Drop a kid nowdays and youd be dropping a body,…

> Everything would be ok for the 1950 kid youd drop anywhere

Not if the kid was black. Just ask Emmett Till, a kid from Chicago ‘dropped’ into Mississippi on vacation.

Or if the kid was a woman. You think she would have no problem finding a job in the 1950s?

Or if the kid was a Muslim. Or gay. Or disabled.

Even if you were a straight white male, your mortality rate was a lot higher in the 1950s than today.

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everything would be ok for the 1950 kid youd drop anywhere. He would be fine and happy. Sure. It was a happy and golden time for everyone. So, one of the amazing things about the modern world is that actual information is at everyone's fingertips, which I find is better than anecdotal conjecture. A quick google away, I can find this document: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1380550/pdf/amj... From this…

Youre twisting my point. Im not saying society was better then. Im saying it was simpler in its structure and certainly more predictive for a given person. Maybe a little bit happier on average even but if we disagree on that no need to break bad about it I can be easily convinced of the contrary.

Don’t mean to twist your point; I’m just putting some statistical information out there that I think suggests a more hopeful picture than your assertion that a random kid in 1950 had pretty good odds of a positive outcome compared to a modern kid having ‘very little’ chance of being happy.

I don’t think it is fair to gloss over the large number of people who were children in the 1950s for whom their chances of happiness were limited from the start, and to hold out some hope that maybe actually on the population level the odds for kids today are slightly better.

But still not good enough, for sure.

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#54
post #9

The premise is wrong, technological change has slowed only in relative terms, not in absolute terms: https://twitter.com/ThomasPHI2/status/1516079819913674759

That assertion doesn't stand up when relatively simple equivalent things like bridges and bus lanes are built slower and more expensively in certain regions compared to the 1930s, which is a main premise of the article.

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That argument may work with something like medical care, but housing and college tuition don't fall into that category as cleanly. With medicine, the cost of failure is everything up to and including death. With housing, the "cost of failure" is not having a house. Similarly for college, the cost of failure is not graduating college. Neither of these are good outcomes, obviously, but the solution to not having a hous…

Firstly, the cost of not having a house for a prolonged period in the north half of the US is death (in the winter). Secondly, there are a lot of other really bad failure cases. For example, houses burning down, poisoning people (via lead, asbestos or others), destroyed in earthquakes, etc. A lot of these can have immediate and severe negative costs for both the people living in them and for society as a whole.

While I was hyperbolic in diminishing the cost of not having a home, my point of regulating any new housing to the point it costs more to build than can ever be made back is a direct cause to the fact many areas no longer have sufficient housing for residents and the housing that does exist costing more than it's worth.

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#56

"As Marc Andreessen remarks, in every case, the culprit is regulation." - a particularly enjoyable quote.

I wonder who Andreessen thinks is responsible for all the ridiculous zoning laws… wonder what sort of means he may consider if his letter asking not to build near him isn’t successful…

For those out of the loop like I was: > I am writing this letter to communicate our IMMENSE objection to the creation of multifamily overlay zones in Atherton … Please IMMEDIATELY REMOVE all multifamily overlay zoning projects from the Housing Element which will be submitted to the state in July. They will MASSIVELY decrease our home values, the quality of life of ourselves and our neighbors and IMMENSELY increase the noise pollution and traffic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/marc-andre...

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#57

"Dictatorship of the Articulate" is a quality phrase. The actual piece is a waste of time. Andreesson capitalism build worship supplemented by for instance American Enterprise Institute propaganda that does not reflect reality. Would downvote if I could.

I was similarly disappointed. The phrase "dictatorship of the articulate" brings to mind a passage from "Dawn of Everything", by the recently deceased David Graeber. It's a thick, meandering book, with a lot of hits and misses, but it's still an engaging read.

An excerpt from Chapter 10, subtitled "IN WHICH WE LAY OUT A THEORY CONCERNING THE THREE ELEMENTARY FORMS OF DOMINATION, AND BEGIN TO EXPLORE ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN HISTORY":

""" So does that mean property, like political power, ultimately derives (as Chairman Mao so delicately put it) ‘from the barrel of a gun’ – or, at best, from the ability to command the loyalties of those trained to use them?

No. Or not exactly.

To illustrate why not, and continue our thought experiment, let’s take a different sort of property. Consider a diamond necklace. If Kim Kardashian walks down the street in Paris wearing a diamond necklace worth millions of dollars, she is not only showing off her wealth, she is also flaunting her power over violence, since everyone assumes she would not be able to do so without the existence, visible or not, of an armed personal security detail, trained to deal with potential thieves. Property rights of all sorts are ultimately backed up by what legal theorists like von Ihering euphemistically called ‘force’. But let us imagine, for a moment, what would happen if everyone on earth were suddenly to become physically invulnerable. Say they all drank a potion which made it impossible for anyone to harm anyone else. Could Kim Kardashian still maintain exclusive rights over her jewellery?

Well, perhaps not if she showed it off too regularly, since someone would presumably snatch it; but she certainly could if she normally kept it hidden in a safe, the combination of which she alone knew and only revealed to trusted audiences at events which were not announced in advance. So there is a second way of ensuring that one has access to rights others do not have: the control of information. Only Kim and her closest confidants know where the diamonds are normally kept, or when she is likely to appear wearing them. This obviously applies to all forms of property that are ultimately backed up by the ‘threat of force’ – landed property, wares in stores, and so forth. If humans were incapable of hurting each other, no one would be able to declare something absolutely sacred to themselves or to defend it against ‘all the world’. They could only exclude those who agreed to be excluded.

Still, let us take the experiment a step further and imagine everyone on earth drank another potion which rendered them all incapable of keeping a secret, but still unable to harm one another physically as well. Access to information, as well as force, has now been equalized. Can Kim still keep her diamonds? Possibly. But only if she manages to convince absolutely everyone that, being Kim Kardashian, she is such a unique and extraordinary human being that she actually deserves to have things no one else can.

We would like to suggest that these three principles – call them control of violence, control of information, and individual charisma – are also the three possible bases of social power. The threat of violence tends to be the most dependable, which is why it has become the basis for uniform systems of law everywhere; charisma tends to be the most ephemeral. Usually, all three coexist to some degree. Even in societies where interpersonal violence is rare, one may well find hierarchies based on knowledge. It doesn’t even particularly matter what that knowledge is about: maybe some sort of technical know-how (say, of smelting copper, or using herbal medicines); or maybe something we consider total mumbo jumbo (the names of the twenty-seven hells and thirty-nine heavens, and what creatures one would be likely to meet if one travelled there). """

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#58
post #26

After playing around with GPT-3 a bit, I've started to suspect a lot of humans are actually very good at manipulating semantic sentences, without necessarily understanding their content. It would explain why so many "smart" people will often speak long sentences that sound right, but have zero information content in them. Maybe it's just not that hard to construct grammatically and semantically correct, but zero info…

According to the PIAAC, 54% of Americans are illiterate. That is, they are able to read simple things like menus, but they are not capable of synthesizing new information from multiple texts, or understanding the nuance of an authors argument. If I recall correctly, Americans scored an average of around 275/500, while the best scoring country, Finland, scored an average of 300/500. (This is a statistically significant jump, and causes a huge portion of those in Finland to not be considered illiterate, but they just begs the question of why the literacy cutoff is where it is.)

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#59
post #26

After playing around with GPT-3 a bit, I've started to suspect a lot of humans are actually very good at manipulating semantic sentences, without necessarily understanding their content. It would explain why so many "smart" people will often speak long sentences that sound right, but have zero information content in them. Maybe it's just not that hard to construct grammatically and semantically correct, but zero info…

As a former technical writer for a major health insurance company, I can attest to this. After writing hundreds of massive documents, guides, tutorials, call scripts, policies and the like, I still had only a tenuous understanding of all the complex bullshit I was writing about. For that specific industry, the convoluted and needlessly complex garbage is absolutely by design, but it’s a similar concept, I think.

Well, Devil's advocate, i think it's good to talk about stuff you don't understand. It's useful to practice declarative knowledge and hedging ignorance, in front of others, that we might tune into the useful level of understanding.

Just to know what words are relevant, what biases are appreciated, what ignorance is allowed.

We might even begin to understand the counterpoint for the OP: it takes time to digest change. Not everyone sees change the same.

Maybe we've had enough radical futurism coming to roost; I think it's weird that dystopian sci-fi now feels normal and I can't watch old movies. Maybe you haven't had enough.. commute to manifest a heretofore only simulated job on Mars in your Tesla Boring Machine.

Life is short, life is long.

Re: The dictatorship of the articulate

#60
post #26

After playing around with GPT-3 a bit, I've started to suspect a lot of humans are actually very good at manipulating semantic sentences, without necessarily understanding their content. It would explain why so many "smart" people will often speak long sentences that sound right, but have zero information content in them. Maybe it's just not that hard to construct grammatically and semantically correct, but zero info…

This reminded me strongly of https://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/03/better-babblers.html which rings more and more true as time goes by.
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