Live data from Hacker News

Stable Diffusion is a big deal

simonwillison.net

391–400 of 488 posts

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it didn't but people who took only one semester of art classes may remain under the delusion that art is about making pretty pictures. People who need illustration or graphics with no particular style can meet their needs with this tool but that is far from art. This replaces commercial illustration, not artists.

This is first generation tech that is dropping jaws compared to just 2 years ago. A career typically requires 40 years of job security.

> A career typically requires 40 years of job security.

40 years ago was 1980. There's a vanishingly small number of fields that have had continuous job security from 1980-2020 (even ignoring Covid).

You might as well say that careers are over for everyone, and have been for a while.

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#392
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see this replacing the clip and misappropriated art in slide presentations that no one is paying for currently with a $20/month service that lets you do "line art angry man in toga at computer" to put into your talk on Kuberentes. It might replace the "nice pic, do you have it at {size} so I can use it as a desktop image" comments on various social media sites. I don't see it replacing an actual photograph as a…

> because they are subtly wrong in some ways Well, they are now . Give it a year and we'll see.

I find it quite amazing how much commentary gets based on "Yes, this happened in two years. Now let's assume nothing changes hereafter."

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i dont think it would be a massive stretch of the imagination to be able to train a robotic arm to hold a brush and reproduce something that is on screen and do it really well.

Machines like that already exist but specifically with oil painting there is a lot of important information in how was the paint applied. So it is really really hard. Too many decisions in tools used, angles of the strokes, pressure, thickness of the color etc. You might make painting that looks identical from far away but when you come close it will be completely different.

Sounds like a job for machine learning.

"Just" need a decent simulation of how that works, first!

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#394
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's one huge difference between Copilot and stuff like this. Art that's 98% correct is awesome. Code that's 98% correct is completely useless. I think Copilot is going to live off hype for a while then tank and be looked back on as a failed experiment. Whereas I think that this kind of AI will eventually get to a point where it's extremely useful and could change up certain industries (game assets, marketing mate…

As a new user of copilot for the last three months, I can't disagree more. I was initially skeptical, and I have noticed it often produces code that looks good but is wrong. However, it still saves me enough time each day to pay for the monthly subscription - in one day. That's a 30x ROI. I imagine it only gets better from here. I wont go back to programming without it.

Can I ask what kind of programming you do for it to be so helpful?

I mostly do maintenance of legacy codebases (also known as codebases, lol) where a lot of the work is figuring out where the changes need to be made and actually making the changes is frequently just a few lines here and there.

When I do have to figure out how to use some API, it's often not an open source one, so Copilot would not have it in its corpus.

I think these kinds of conditions are really common since software tends to last for maintenance longer than it is in initial greenfield development.

So I'm confused what kind of work benefits from Copilot. Just pumping out greenfield development of new websites/webapps that don't use much legacy or closed source code or services, just using existing popular open source libraries in commonplace ways?

The other thing I wonder about is code quality. When I look up API docs and stackoverflow examples, I get to read them all, maybe test some examples out in a CLI/REPL, and then decide carefully exactly what to do myself, what special cases to worry about or not, what errors to handle, etc.

Maybe what I end up writing is even the same as Copilot would have written. But in the process, I learn about finer details of the library and make detailed decisions about how to deal with rare edge cases. Might even end up writing a comment calling out a common pitfall I realized might exist.

My question is -- in order to save so much time with Copilot, are you still able to do all this extra thinking and deciding and learning (in cases that warrant it)? Or would doing that just end up consuming most of the time Copilot "saved"?

In other words do you end up producing code much more rapidly, but at the expense of code that looks more like a junior than a senior wrote it, because it is most concerned with working at all, and does not have time to worry about finer details? At the expense of not being as deeply familiar with the foibles of the API you're working on?

Honest questions as I haven't tried Copilot, and these are the thoughts that make me imagine it won't be of value. A lot of what I know I learned from doing the parts of the work that Copilot would be automating. Sure, Copilot would save me time when initially writing it. But would I then have less deep knowledge available when there's a fire in production because I never explored the fine details of my dependencies as much?

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#395
post #307

Is it just me, or do the comments in this thread seem to be the exact opposite of the sentiment in the comments on similar Github Copilot threads? I just find it a bit ironic that programmers are irate about Github Copilot using their copyrighted material to train. However, if it's an ML model training off of copyrighted artists material, clearly its a transformative work. I just find the opposing sentiments for thes…

Copilot is paid and closed source. It takes freely from the commons but doesn't give back as freely. There is a big difference.

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#396
The author mentions a video demo of a Photoshop plugin being developed "which has to be seen to be believed" and then links to this video:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/wys3w5/app...

...but it seems to just be a copy of this scene from Aladdin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inzkJ34VMfk&t=20s

Am I missing something?

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody gets paid to be a telephone operator or a cobbler or a steeplejack anymore either. If new tools come along that automates and further commoditizes the production of art, I don't see the issue. Automatic driving for trucking, public transport, taxis would economically impact vastly more people, and everyone here seems to be cheering for that. There's nothing special about art. People will still do it as a hobby…

Cobblers still exist. I visit one regularly for shoe repair. https://www.davepagecobbler.com/

I grew up in a car dependent area and moved to a walkable big city in my teenage years, and only then became aware that cobblers were still a thing -- in fact, in NYC, they're not an obscure thing, but as common as bank branches.

I think that's why there's a lot of people online who think cobblers aren't a thing anymore. They're from car dependent areas. If you drive everywhere, shoe soles don't wear out much faster than shoe uppers anyway, so it doesn't make sense to care. But if you move to a walkable city, you'll suddenly find it quite economical, since the soles wear out far faster, and the cost of a sole replacement is less than a new pair of shoes, so you might replace the sole a couple times before discarding the shoe.

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#398
post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are the most impressive software achievements in decades and anyone who has a “meh” reaction will absolutely end up looking silly. With the risk of looking silly, I declare "meh" once more, just as I "meh"-eh when GPT-3 came out. The so-called "AI" is not fundamentally different from the AI of the 80s, it's just that now we have much better hardware. The main problem of the past AI winters still remains - the…

incremental improvements are easy to dismiss but it can be hard to tell when some critical mass of utility is reached. The first cars were electric (and steam-powered) but it took 100 years to supplant ICE (steam is next /s). the components for drone technology aren't new but control systems and batteries needed time to improve, VR has incrementally improved since the 80's, even the internet was around for 20 years b…

It sure looks to me like this new development is hailed as a leap, rather than incremental improvement. Although I'm judging just by reading the comments in the HN bubble.

Either way, I think the current "AI" is fundamentally limited by the statistical approach to problem solving. Without any reasoning capabilities, no amount of incremental improvements will change the fact that neural networks are simply making guesses based on existing data sets. Nothing magical or revolutionary, it's the same thing we've known for many decades.

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can go back and forth all day. But legally your friend has no legs to stand on. People do "like copies" of works all the time, and it's been ok'ed by the courts just as much. Unless your friend thinks the AI is copying snippets of his work into generated images, I'm not sure where they are getting these ideas from.

> But legally your friend has no legs to stand on. My friend is just upset. Legally he has every right in the World, he's the author for Christ Sake! Will he try anything? Of course not. Are you okay with this? Well, then you should reconsider your values. > People do "like copies" of works all the time, If those copies are authorized, I don't see the problem. Try to recreate a Star Wars image and sell it on the Inte…

>Would you bet your life on the fact that it doesn't?

Yes, because that's not how it works.

If your friend is still upset, maybe they should consider the artists they "stole" their learning material from.

Re: Stable Diffusion is a big deal

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You included “cobbler” only because it sounds old-timey to you, and I was pointing out that it’s not. Repairing expensive shoes is not an automated process. It’s more like fixing a roof leak, landscaping, or changing a flat tire. Jobs for those things still exist and aren’t going anywhere.

You're nitpicking one of the given examples without engaging the user on the point they were trying to make. To be nuanced, maybe they might have said, "cobblers are less in demand now that many people have moved from owning fewer pairs of shoes they make last through repair to owning more pairs of shoes that they tend to get rid of when they are worn out due to changes in construction materials used in production,"…

It's a nitpick, but a little bigger than that. It's as bad as including "bus driver" in the list. Cobblers just shouldn't be included in the category at all.

Cobblers are in just as much demand in most of the world as they always have been. They only fell out of demand in car-dependent areas, which is a small minority of the world population (but a vast majority of the HN commenting population since most of the USA outside of a few cities is car dependent)

I don't know if it has anything to do with construction but doubt it. If you actually walk everywhere shoes don't last very long these days, especially shoes under $100.

There are a lot of other urban services that exist in almost the entire populated world, but that most Americans think quaint because they are not relevant to a car dependent highway world.

All that said, this really is a nitpick and the original point stands very well. Some of us just don't like it when car-dependent people forget that they are a small minority worldwide and instead treat urban walkable people as the insignificant minority! Or rather, HN being a forum for all things interesting, we find it interesting to make it a teachable moment. What could be more interesting than finding out that something that has always seemed obvious to you is actually backwards?

Post reply on HN