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What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

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Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#131
post #127
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Further, in certain cases (P =? NP is one I know of) it has been proven that certain types [0] of proofs cannot possibly work -- and yet people keep offering "proofs" of those bound-to-be-wrong types. [0] Not sure if 'types' is the right word? Using it colloquially. Maybe 'classes' would be more accurate?

It's subtle, because some of the impossibility proofs are effectively saying that any real proof needs to be somehow sensitive to whether it's in an imaginary universe with oracles, so they can _fail_ in them!

It really is mind-bending stuff -- I have only the vaguest idea of how these proofs could work, but you summarized it beautifully.

As an aside, this is also perhaps also one of the best motivating examples of the idea of "oracles" in math. ("Ok, assume we can do $IMPOSSIBLE_THING... now what?" :) )

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If the following 25 players in the world where all 2800+ Carlsen would already be 2900+." Why are you assuming that Carlsen would always win against other players if the other players are that much stronger? Maybe if the following 25 players were all 2800+ then Carlsen would take more losses.

Because, as already explained elo measures relative strength not absolute one. If he's a better player he's going to beat them more often than not while not losing all the points he does now for drawing.

Yeah, but he wouldn't be a better player than them if they were better players.
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