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Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
111–120 of 151 posts
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#112Sweden Age Adjusted Mortality 3rd January 2020 through 18th June 2021: -2.3% Source: ONS Not only did lockdowns fail, they were unnecessary and cruel and tyrannical. I sincerely hope that the responsible people will face justice that is just as harsh as the lockdown enforcement was.
Similar to people exagerrating Australia/NZ as people being locked in their homes for two years, Sweden gets the opposite.
They had some constitutional limit on lockdowns, and a Health official who was a bit overenthusiastic about 'herd immunity' but they also had lots of recommendations and an expectation that people would actually obey them.
> As the outbreak reached Sweden, authorities responded with limited measures, in contrast with lockdowns and legal restrictions introduced in other countries. The Swedish public were expected to follow a series of non-voluntary recommendations[note 2] from the Public Health Agency of Sweden (Folkhälsomyndigheten). These included working from home where possible, limiting travel within the country, social distancing, and for people above 70 and those with potential COVID-19 symptoms to self-isolate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
"non-voluntary recommendations"? Note 2 is:
> A Swedish government agency is an independent body with delegated power to pass binding regulations as well as recommendations on how someone can or should act to meet a law or binding regulation within the agency's area of activity (in this case The Swedish Communicable Diseases Act). Although there is not a legal framework for a governmental agency to impose sanctions on someone for going against its recommendations, they are not optional as they work as guidelines on how to act to follow a law or regulation (in this case an obligation to help halting the spread of an infectious disease). The Swedish Constitution prohibits ministerial rule – politicians overruling the advice from its agencies is extremely unusual in Sweden – and mandates that the relevant government body, in this case an expert agency – the Public Health Agency – must initiate all actions to prevent the virus' spread in accordance with Swedish law, rendering state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell a central figure in the crisis.
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#113Very flawed report. They mentioned everything but china which had crematoriums go overdrive and massive amounts of people die. Yet they mentioned it in article once that they kept infections out? I thought that article was supposed to debunk the bs non free countries reported as their numbers
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's exactly what I thought. We have to learn to live in a community, and that means sacrificing personal liberty for the benefit of others.
And if we fail to be able to cope, what then? As https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/... and many other sources will attest, COVID and COVID lockdowns was TERRIBLE for mental health among teenagers. And yes, poor mental health is a communicable disease within a family. This is personal. 3/4 of my teenage children are receiving psychiatric care. Including a daughter who was temporarily institut…
So sorry about your family. I also started personally getting psychiatric care after all this happened, and continuing now. The situation is so complex, but definitely it should have been managed better overall. I'm no expert so can't comment.
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's exactly what I thought. We have to learn to live in a community, and that means sacrificing personal liberty for the benefit of others.
This was my thinking. From the way the author writes, they seem to say, "I would skip lockdowns, in exchange for giving up my 15 extra days of life". If that were the thing on offer, I think a lot of people would say "forget the extra 15 days, I'll not have a lockdown". That's not what it is though. The question is, would you go into lockdown to give everyone in the country 15 extra days of life. That's what you're t…
It's not fair to frame this as just you not having lockdown vs. everyone living 15 more days. Frame it instead as everyone not having lockdown vs. everyone living 15 more days.
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#116>The United States was roughly around the global average. Contrary to the view of many conservatives, the deaths probably were caused by Covid itself, and NOT by lockdowns I feel like the common view by people who thought numbers were being artificially inflated was that they were counting people who died while having tested positive for covid being attributed to covid and not just 'the lockdowns' Fairly distinctly r…
> Fairly distinctly remember a million memes of like a car accident or something else tragic and a caption of "sorry to tell you mam, your son died of covid" or something to that ends.
Those weren't just memes. That really happened. https://wpde.com/news/nation-world/man-who-died-in-motorcycl...
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#117Interesting analysis, though he mentions early on a huge issue with the analysis: > It does come with one major caveat: Because it counts ALL deaths, it cannot on its own disentangle deaths caused by Covid itself, impacts from the lockdowns themselves, impacts from vaccines, or unrelated death trends. Especially as time goes on, and we see the effects of missed cancer screenings, economic destruction, increased obesi…
That is not an issue with the analysis as a whole, and indeed he addresses several of those points. It is an issue only with the excess deaths statistic. The data we have so far does not show a correlation between lockdowns and GDP, and tends to show a correlation between lockdowns and a reduction in excess deaths.
The data is the data, but there is a huge missing story that this analysis completely misses.
Why?
It is not appropriate to mix an all-cause mortality number (which is what this is) without actually tracking the underlying separation between groups to answer the why question. E.g. Vaccinated/Unvaccinated, WhichVaccine, Obesity, Age, WhichVariant, and the related ICD codes for someone's health.
Furthermore, it is a travesty to attempt to draw huge conclusions (which many are now doing) from all cause mortality at a population level without that important separation of data elements.
Because Covid in many cases does not relate to seropositivity, cases is not an accurate count, as some people with strong immune systems will never be considered a "case" [1]
We need strong analyses around health, weight, obesity, and other comorbidities, not data mingled bungled studies that look only at outcomes with no relationship. Tragically, this study points out that perhaps we should incarcerate entire populations, because if we do that, we can drive down death rates.
[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.26.21259239v...
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some of the approaches used for counting such deaths should be considered quite suspect. Take Toronto, the most populous city in Canada, and one of the most populous in North America, for example. This is how Toronto's public health unit described its methodology: "Individuals who have died with COVID-19, but not as a result of COVID-19 are included in the case counts for COVID-19 deaths in Toronto." https://twitter.…
That might affect "deaths due to COVID-19" counts, but it does not, cannot, affect "excess deaths" counts, which don't include a cause of death. It is for this reason, among others, that people looking at global trends focus on "excess deaths."
but a vaccinated population in which a vaccine is driving up adverse events would likewise contribute to All Cause Mortality would fall into this trap.
Likewise, extreme draconian governmental responses that destroyed economies, hurt supply chains, and drove many to suicide and substance abuse would increase all cause mortality.
All Cause Mortality is best when comparing outcomes between different groups A/B, but not at entire population levels which is what this "analysis" does.
We must not conflate cause and effect by using this flawed method.
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#119I'm not at all convinced excess deaths is a good measure of Covid-19 deaths.
What would you use instead?
1. I didn't make claims about Covid response quality in different countries, so I don't have to use anything...
2. I might try to adapt a normalization scheme to countries reporting methodologies. Of course that would be complex and difficult to derive.
Re: Covid “Fudge Factor” – A map of Covid data corruption and approach that worked
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
That might affect "deaths due to COVID-19" counts, but it does not, cannot, affect "excess deaths" counts, which don't include a cause of death. It is for this reason, among others, that people looking at global trends focus on "excess deaths."
but a vaccinated population in which a vaccine is driving up adverse events would likewise contribute to All Cause Mortality would fall into this trap. Likewise, extreme draconian governmental responses that destroyed economies, hurt supply chains, and drove many to suicide and substance abuse would increase all cause mortality. All Cause Mortality is best when comparing outcomes between different groups A/B, but not…
Which is why comparing countries which had strict lockdowns with countries which did not have strict lockdowns is helpful in showing that stricter lockdowns resulted in lower comparative excess deaths.
Instead of hypothetical scenarios in which suicide spikes and all-cause mortality rises, we have realities in which the opposite happened[0].
There is no collection of facts from the real world in which the vaccines are causing more harm than they prevent, and no collection of facts from the real world in which lockdowns didn't save lives where implemented. But nothing is likely to convince the true believers, so carry on.
0. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-suicides-have-dec...