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Time Till Open Source Alternative

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41–50 of 340 posts

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#41
post #35

> Two things become clear with this chart... Second, the trend is downward Um... No. The "trend" is due to the fact we don't know the future. Seriously, it takes about 7-10 years for a OS project to take off, so you won't be seeing the 10 year replacements for proprietary software from 5 years ago. The "trend" looks like more of a random distribution which narrows as it gets closer to the present.

There's a graph further down about this point. Both the minimum and the maximum appear to be dropping. Though especially with the minimum there might be recency bias at play here. It's not exactly a random sample of software we're looking at.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#44
Lots of wrong assumptions here but the most egregious of them all:

> If your closed software demands $1000 from my pocket but I can make do with a free and open source alternative, I will choose the open one.

Sorry but software purchasing decisions aren't simply based on cost and never will.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#45
post #21

Nice to see some data 2 years later to back this up https://ecc-comp.blogspot.com/2020/08/80-of-software-is-usel...

The first example in that doc is Sublime Text. "Unfortunately the only thing going for Sublime was that it was first-to-market with a few novel ideas, most notably multiple cursor editing." That was clearly written by someone who hadn't used Sublime.

Then Github is mentioned as making money from the data they collect. You need to understand Github is Microsoft. From our perspective they make money from the enterprise agreements for security and code analysis they offer through Github. That is what pays for people's free use.

Finally, the article closes with Word and Excel being useless. As much as I dislike those programs, they work. None of the free alternatives can share files without there eventually being unfixable file format problems. When working with your boss, you need to use the same program in order to share files. None of the alternatives work.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#46
There is a reverse transition to monetize the open-source versions with a hosted-service also. Lot more products being built "in the open" these days.

Anyway, it is kinda interesting to see that it doesn't take long for copies of a new tech to show up. Zero-to-one seems sporadic, but immediately we see the market replicate it.

Recently seen with something seemingly complex like DALL-E. Didn't take long for the comparables to crop up. Some of them must be open-source, I am not aware of that aspect.

Apple Airpods was another one. Almost within a year, there were other earphones available in that form-factor.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#47
post #39
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a reliable test for predicting the success of failure of open source software: "Does it directly interact with users?" If the answer is yes, OSS has mostly been an alternative option but not the first choice. (With all due respect and deference to the work put in by OSS GUI teams!) If the answer is no, and especially if it's a shared need but not the primary product (e.g. kernel, web server, intermediate proc…

Not totally, not till Oracle has been tipped into the dustbin of history. (Come the day!) I think Cisco still uses proprietary software too.

Fair! Although I've never worked with a shop that was not-Oracle and migrating to Oracle. Sadly, there's the long tail of places with existing, business critical Oracle use.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You only have to build the alternative once. Yes, there have been some areas where proprietary software has held its ground, but has done just that- it has not replaced free software in the areas that it has control over. The takeover of free software may be slow, but it is one-directional.

I wish this were true! But keeping your software current in 2022 is an continuous project. UIs improve, platforms shift, features expand, vulns appear, needs change, server bills need to be paid.

I think this is a self-aggrandizing myth that is common in forums like HN with lots of programmers and designers:

- UI's usually do not improve. They "improve" by making subjective changes for the benefit of the maker (often at the cost of the user).

- Platforms are constantly shifting when they are owned by corporations. At first, businesses will penetrate the market by creating a competitive platform. Once their platform has reached critical market share, they will switch to milking their users who are now trapped due to vendor lock-in. This forces users of proprietary software to constantly jump ship in order to get a good deal.

- Features sometimes expand, but most apps will reach a point where it no longer makes sense to add additional features. In the free-software world, we generally try to make an ecosystem of programs that work together: if a single program is too complex, its features may be divided into several smaller programs. In the corporate world, a single program may be bloated and expanded long past the point at which additional complexity will serve the user- so long as developers can continue to invent new ways to extract money, data, etc from their users.

- New vulnerabilities may be uncovered, but generally vulnerabilities are only added when the complexity of program increases. Vulnerabilities don't just appear out of nowhere. If you write a program, it doesn't just become more vulnerable over time just by merit of being old.

- Server bills usually need to be paid because people have inserted themselves as middlemen. If the internet was designed in a way that did not require paying a racketeering fee for DNS, PKI, etc. then we would see a lot of decentralized alternatives to "essential" services.

It's hard for me to entirely put into words how flawed your statement is. If you have time, you may want to check out a book called "Bullshit Jobs: A Theory" by David Graeber (https://libgen.gs/edition.php?id=5852679). It might give you a new perspective on the software industry.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#49
post #24

> All software will be open source, and no one will make money with software. This is simply a very utopian claim and just isn't going to happen. One example is Microsoft Office which has been replaced by Google Docs / Office Online, etc and little to no-one installs LibreOffice directly. Unfortunately, closed-source software is here to stay and the only absolute here is: There isn't any.

> This is simply a very utopian claim and just isn't going to happen. One example is Microsoft Office which has been replaced by Google Docs / Office Online, etc and little to no-one installs LibreOffice directly.

Well the world changed under LibreOffice's feet when the browser became a strong enough platform for office products. There is a lesson here: open source is slow, so don't just chase the present because it will become the past by the time you are viable. I can remember when some of the FSF's highest priorities were developing free software versions of RealPlayer and Flash.

Someone else on this thread already mentioned that what open source software does best is infrastructure, and I would add libraries to that. It definitely moves too slowly for cutting edge, modern application development unless a corporation is backing it.

Re: Time Till Open Source Alternative

#50
post #3

> all software will be open source, and no one will make money with software. The first half of that statement doesn't imply the second half at all. Perhaps, in the future, companies will see the writing on the wall and plan on re-licensing their software under an open licence once they have made a profit from their initial investment (and built a community to maintain the code base going forwards). Taking that idea…

Unglue[1] tried to do (roughly) this for books, but seems to have stagnated in the recent years, unfortunately.

[1] https://unglue.it/

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