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Day ahead electricity prices for EU

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Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#151

Post by tmikaeld »

sprak wrote: post #23

Sweden has four zones and according to [1] tomorrow's price will be from north to south: Zone 1: 14,25 cents/kWh Zone 2: 14,25 cents/kWh Zone 3: 108,64 cents/kWh Zone 4: 201,63 cents/kWh 1 Swedish krona is 0,094 USD. So between 1,3 and 20 American cents per kWh. Most people live in Zone 3 followed by Zone 4. Facebook's datacenter is in Zone 1. [1]: https://elen.nu

The disturbing thing is that Zone 4 has to pay export prices, when it would be fairer to pay pre-export prices.

It's already starting to bankrupt businesses in Zone 4, that are calling for immediate changes [0].

[0] https://www.di.se/live/efter-elprissmockan-skanska-foretag-v...

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#152

Post by balderdash »

the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #28
capableweb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why nobody is doing anything about it > I've read somewhere Before wondering why someone, somewhere is not doing something, confirm that the thing is actually happening in the first place.

I have no clue about Czechia but that’s basically happening in Austria. Austria mainly produces energy from renewables which did not go up in price buy since the price on the exchanges is determined by the most expensive source we still pay exorbitant prices. Producers are making all the money right now.

The marginal cost of production didn’t go up for renewables, but that’s not the price setting mechanism, the Austrian people demanded more electricity than renewables could provide, so the price rose until it was high enough to justify turning on the gas fired plants and where the Czechs and Germans would be willing to sell power to the Austrians…

Also the people that are “making all the money” now that power prices are super high, stood to loose money if power prices were super low, why shouldn’t they be compensated for bearing that risk?

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#153

Post by bitL »

ohgodplsno wrote: post #127
capableweb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why nobody is doing anything about it > I've read somewhere Before wondering why someone, somewhere is not doing something, confirm that the thing is actually happening in the first place.

EDF, the French electricity provider is able to produce electricity at about 20€/MWh. It is forced to sell it to leeches (read: "competition"), up to 100TWh, at 42€/MWh through a mechanism called ARENH. Should they need this 100TWh (and they do), they are forced to buy it at current market prices, or anywhere between 530 and 715€/MWh. The "competition" are resellers that have not installed a single MW of production,…

OK, you have confirmed my worries there is some well-connected mafia operating in that market.

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#154

Post by Ekaros »

dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #96
sph wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can anybody explain why that is? Why a country that generates 99+% of its own electricity like UK is seeing price increases? Everybody blames the war, but AFAIK UK imports 1% of its gas from Russia, and its electricity is generated locally, so why are prices increasing? I would expect grain and wheat to increase 500%, not power.

Because electricity is sold across the entire European market. Low cost producers are going to sell to those who pay the most, to maximise profit, unless they're unable to move the electricity ( or more likely 'contra' it) to where it is intended to be consumed. Just like oil. The US has cheap oil but it's a global market, so everyone pays the (more or less) the same price regardless of how close they are to the oil.

Also because electricity market is bit special how it operates. Suppliers tell what price they will sell and and then buyer at what price they will buy. And the price for all transactions will be set at highest match of supply to demand.

Because demand side has no upper price limit the whole market price can raise to very high.

Ofc, this ignores cases of own production, futures and so on.

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#155

Post by andrepd »

dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #90
bjourne wrote: post #60

Remember that, while prices have soared, electricity generation has not become more expensive. The "electricity crisis" is a crisis for European consumers but a massive windfall for producers. This is a market failure - not an electricity failure.

> electricity generation has not become more expensive A lot of generation in Europe is using gas, so it very much has. It's more or less a normal market experiencing a jump in price on inputs. If you can produce cheaper than the market price then you make lots of money. That's normal. The market is telling buyers to use less electricity and sellers to produce more. It's how markets work.

That is predicated on the rational market hypothesis: that all agents have perfect information, make perfectly rational decision, there is no market friction, and goods are perfectly elastic. Of course, neither of these assumptions are true in this case.

Back in the real world, we can look at hard data. Margins for energy producers and retailers have increased massively in the latest quarter. Also, we know that markets don't react directly (and exclusively) to fundamentals. They react to panics, they react to extremely complex interactions of manual and automatic trading algorithms. Reality is far from the simple "supply and demand" that economics 101 textbooks portray.

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#156

Post by Tenoke »

locallost wrote: post #95

This is nothing. If you want to panic, check the futures markets for the next 2 quarters, especially France. So I think short term we are pretty screwed. But I think if you can produce electricity at 1/10 or even 1/20 of the price, wouldn't you be adding new capacity now? The only fast option are renewables, so my wild guess is that there will be so much new capacity added in the next years, the bottleneck will not b…

Should I panic enough in Germany to be wise to consider moving away? Where as a European?

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#157

Post by himinlomax »

bitL wrote: post #22
sokoloff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you could make electricity for 0.1€/MWh, you’re going to get quite rich anyway. (That cannot be the right cost.)

IIRC they are mostly using nuclear power plants, i.e. from cheap Russian fuel rods stockpiles.

Fuel is an insignificant part of the cost of nuclear.

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#159

Post by andrepd »

Tenoke wrote: post #156
locallost wrote: post #95

This is nothing. If you want to panic, check the futures markets for the next 2 quarters, especially France. So I think short term we are pretty screwed. But I think if you can produce electricity at 1/10 or even 1/20 of the price, wouldn't you be adding new capacity now? The only fast option are renewables, so my wild guess is that there will be so much new capacity added in the next years, the bottleneck will not b…

Should I panic enough in Germany to be wise to consider moving away? Where as a European?

You should definitely not move countries due to a post in hackernews.

Re: Day ahead electricity prices for EU

#160

Post by andrepd »

boshomi wrote: post #137
locallost wrote: post #95

This is nothing. If you want to panic, check the futures markets for the next 2 quarters, especially France. So I think short term we are pretty screwed. But I think if you can produce electricity at 1/10 or even 1/20 of the price, wouldn't you be adding new capacity now? The only fast option are renewables, so my wild guess is that there will be so much new capacity added in the next years, the bottleneck will not b…

Eye watering French power prices: * Baseload from nov22 to feb23 above 2000€/MWh * Peak Load nov22 to dec22 at 3000€/MWh * Peak Load Q1/23 at 2970€/MWh But the prices for other nations also went up steeply. [1] https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/power/futures#%7B%22snipp...

France has a shitload of nuclear capacity and low dependence on gas. Why is their energy rising so much?
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