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What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

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Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#11

Post by shmageggy »

mpol wrote: post #3

Even with the hot streak in 2019, his performance rating was 2889, which is not enough. It could have continued for a thousand games and it would not have been enough. He will need more wins against high rated players, even more wins than in 2019. Quote from the article: "...won every tournament he took part in, scored 32 wins, 47 draws and not a single loss, with a rating performance of 2889."

> In this simulation. Magnus reached the rating in 1600 simulated trajectories out of 2000. If Magnus Carlsen continues showing the same performance as he did during the 2019 period, he has 80% chance of reaching 2900.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#12

Post by jackdh »

herendin wrote: post #6
rurban wrote: post #2

Not by playing on the club level, as pointed out. He'll loose with every draw to such low ranked players. He needs to play a lot of high ranked tournaments, and don't take draws. Excitíng

It sounds like focusing so hard on the rating might be bad for his quality of life, by preventing him playing 'fun' tournaments. Edit : He can try to game the ratings system by looking for high-rated opponents who he knows will not play as well as their ratings suggest for some reason (like illness or personal issues). But he doesn't seem the sort to enjoy this

Is it not possible to go to a tournament and have it not affect your rank? Or is every tournament ranked all the time?

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#13

Post by sgjohnson »

mpol wrote: post #10
Normille wrote: post #7

I still can't understand how chess ratings work --even after 'RTFM' and having people try and explain it to me. Far far below the lofty heights of Carlsen &co., I play a fair bit on Lichess. Sometimes I'll play someone with a similar ranking to myself and beat them and will earn 3 or 4 points. Then we'll have a re-match which I lose and they'll gain 12 or 15 points. I just can't fathom how them beating me earns them…

Lichess doesn't use ELO rating but a different rating system. And yes, I don't understand that difference either. About white versus black, there is some consensus that after about 20 moves, white's advantage is gone. I doubt that statement is supported by statistics. I guess the rating just assumes everyone plays white and black just as often, so it will even out in the end. (edit) By the way, if you are strong with…

> About white versus black, there is some consensus that after about 20 moves, white's advantage is gone. I doubt that statement is supported by statistics.

That statement is supported by statistics, however, the problem with that statement is that the average chess game is 25 moves.

except in top-level classical play.

But it's not relevant, because virtually all experts agree that chess is a theoretical draw. It's extremely difficult to prove it, however.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#14

Post by narag »

mpol wrote: post #10
Normille wrote: post #7

I still can't understand how chess ratings work --even after 'RTFM' and having people try and explain it to me. Far far below the lofty heights of Carlsen &co., I play a fair bit on Lichess. Sometimes I'll play someone with a similar ranking to myself and beat them and will earn 3 or 4 points. Then we'll have a re-match which I lose and they'll gain 12 or 15 points. I just can't fathom how them beating me earns them…

Lichess doesn't use ELO rating but a different rating system. And yes, I don't understand that difference either. About white versus black, there is some consensus that after about 20 moves, white's advantage is gone. I doubt that statement is supported by statistics. I guess the rating just assumes everyone plays white and black just as often, so it will even out in the end. (edit) By the way, if you are strong with…

Lichess doesn't use ELO rating but a different rating system.

That explains some odditites I've observed, like different strength with the same rating at different hours of the day or different days.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#16

Post by sgjohnson »

mpol wrote: post #3

Even with the hot streak in 2019, his performance rating was 2889, which is not enough. It could have continued for a thousand games and it would not have been enough. He will need more wins against high rated players, even more wins than in 2019. Quote from the article: "...won every tournament he took part in, scored 32 wins, 47 draws and not a single loss, with a rating performance of 2889."

He is fighting an uphill battle though, because nobody has a higher rating than him, and there's only so many points you can gain from winning games against lower rated players.

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#17

Post by mpol »

shmageggy wrote: post #11
mpol wrote: post #3

Even with the hot streak in 2019, his performance rating was 2889, which is not enough. It could have continued for a thousand games and it would not have been enough. He will need more wins against high rated players, even more wins than in 2019. Quote from the article: "...won every tournament he took part in, scored 32 wins, 47 draws and not a single loss, with a rating performance of 2889."

> In this simulation. Magnus reached the rating in 1600 simulated trajectories out of 2000. If Magnus Carlsen continues showing the same performance as he did during the 2019 period, he has 80% chance of reaching 2900.

Yes, I read that too. There are not many details, like what kind of simulations there have been made.

Also, "the same performance" has a different meaning from TPR performance I guess. With a TPR of 2889 you will not reach 2900, afaik. Unless 1 tournament is played with a TPR of 2920 and the next one with a TPR of 2840. But then it's a fleeting 2900 :) I guess that will do for Carlsen :)

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#18

Post by sgjohnson »

jackdh wrote: post #12
herendin wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like focusing so hard on the rating might be bad for his quality of life, by preventing him playing 'fun' tournaments. Edit : He can try to game the ratings system by looking for high-rated opponents who he knows will not play as well as their ratings suggest for some reason (like illness or personal issues). But he doesn't seem the sort to enjoy this

Is it not possible to go to a tournament and have it not affect your rank? Or is every tournament ranked all the time?

It is. If the tournament is not organized by FIDE, or a national chess federation, it won't affect your FIDE rating.

It will also not affect your FIDE rating if the tournament is not organised to the required standard (which is basically nonexistent for under-1800 rated players, and going all the way to the required presence of International Arbiters, metal detectors and blood tests for top level play)

Re: What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900?

#19

Post by shmageggy »

> ...assuming... the mix of opponents are the same in the two periods (2019 and 2020-2022)

This seems like a big issue. There are currently a bunch of really promising young players coming up the ranks who will likely be continuing to improve and be underrated for a while. That's going to make it even harder.

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