Live data from Hacker News

Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

bloomberg.com

521–530 of 643 posts

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#521
post #17

Peter Zeihan wrote a really interesting book about this topic recently - "The End of the World is Just the Begining". He sees population decline as one of the gravest dangers facing civilisation. Implication being in the title of the book.

I'm old enough to remember when population increase was said to be one of the gravest dangers facing civilization.

If you're in the market for doom porn, there will always be someone willing to sell it to you.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many kids are forced to do these activities to pad their application for colleges and sometimes it is for show and prestige.

Oh. That’s batshit crazy (the college application thing). Why should non-academic achievements make any difference whatsoever when applying to college? Is that a thing anywhere except the US? As for show and prestige, that’s usually what the parents want, so that’s squarely in the "something is wrong" category.

colleges have decided they want balanced students who have some of everything (except free time, because lmao they dont need that). so its karate or swimming oe soccer or football or baseball for athleticism, usually 2 during childhood. its piano or violin. its starting extra language study early. boy scouts or national honor society for leadership. speech and debate, model un or working for a campaign to show political consciousness. 100+ nonprofit work (actually documented) or starting your own of you want to stand out.

all these can be fun but as a kid you are not doing them to have fun, there is constant pressure to win awards and be the best at these. and the list is picked more from appearance on a college application than enjoyment for a child.

this is most american kids now with any ambition of getting into a prestigious school. it will not get you scholarships though.

it is also not mentioning that "academic excellence" in high school has moved from straight As to 6-8 AP exams in a single year, i shit you not.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#523

It's always interesting to look at what these numbers exactly mean because it's deeply counter-intuitive. For the sake of simple modeling, imagine we have a society with 100 people with a fertility rate of 1, that give birth at 20 and die at 80. Here is how that looks: --- Year 0: 100 newborns Year 20: 100 twenties, 50 newborns Year 40: 100 forties, 50 twenties, 25 newborns Year 60: 100 sixties, 50 forties, 25 twenti…

The population didn't double over the first 60 years unless your 100 newborns were created ex nihilo.

True, but if Korea used to have a birth rate over over 5, those 100 newborns could have been born from 40 twenties.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#524

I imagine booming populations in Africa will likely offset much of the working population in these countries with low birth rates. As a European I can imagine what impact having high immigration from Africa mixed with all the property being unaffordable and owned by older white generations will have i.e. huge disparity in wealth between black and white, quick growth of black population and decline in white population…

Korea and Japan are very much against mass immigration. Koreans in particular are notoriously xenophobic: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/asia/south-korea-di... There's also an even weirder anti-feminist backlash happening as well.

Those are unhealthy attitudes. It would be good if they addressed this, but sadly societies and cultures are rarely rational about how they develop. Much of modern life is determined by culture, but despite culture being entirely man-made, we don't seem to be able to control it.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#525

I've been meaning to write about this for a while, but this does not surprise me in the least. The life in Korea is way too competitive and stressful. The hellscape begins in pre-school and primary school where parents make kids go to private school AFTER school, often till late evenings. This progressively gets worse and worse until university. In my father's generation, people could relax after getting into univers…

the difference also is that your father generation (if he is 50 or more) did not really have a lot of good job. most of the jobs were blue collar. now it changed a lot as most of the jobs are really for the highly educated and its very competitive

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#526
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of dangerous logic is how you end up with anti-vax conspiracy theories about Bill Gates and mind control, about how one could trust Pfizer’s Phase 3 vaccine trial data they submitted for approval, etc. On the one hand, yes of course: sources matter and you need to consider whether anyone has a motive to mislead, or even merely a motive to not dig too deeply into a claim they might wish to believe. But on th…

>This kind of dangerous logic... Different or opposing opinions are neither dangerous or violent.

To be clear, the danger is not in differing opinions, it's in overindexing on imagined motives and using those to dismiss a claim.

Unpopular opinion, I guess.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think genetics don't matter? Depending on the study, IQ heritability is between 60-80%.

Okay but that just implies that having a wide distribution of IQ is well adapted to our natural environment.

In the same sense as humans having a range of strength and speed is well adapted, sure. But athletics also tends to run in families.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#528

It's always interesting to look at what these numbers exactly mean because it's deeply counter-intuitive. For the sake of simple modeling, imagine we have a society with 100 people with a fertility rate of 1, that give birth at 20 and die at 80. Here is how that looks: --- Year 0: 100 newborns Year 20: 100 twenties, 50 newborns Year 40: 100 forties, 50 twenties, 25 newborns Year 60: 100 sixties, 50 forties, 25 twenti…

This is the most valuable comment I have read on hacker news. My mind is blown. Thank you.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#529
post #92

I have 3 kids with one due at the end of the year. All are from the same woman and we’ve known each other since being teenagers. We are planning to have 5-7 total. They really add a richness to life. It’s fun to see people stare when we go out.

Serious question: How on earth can you afford this?

"Afford" is said in many ways. I know my kids will probably have to take out student loans to go to school. Other than that, you live frugally. Health insurance costs usually cap out at 3 kids.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide some of these sources for folks open to educating themselves?

You can look for M. Bairoch's research for instance ("Révolution Industrielle et Sous-Développement") Some other put the "start" of industrialization way before, at the end of the Renaissance. As I understand it, there was a progressive flow of industrialization that was clearly visible in Belgium/Netherland, and also started brewing in the other surrounding countries, but the "Industrial Revolution" term was coined…

Wait, Bairoch's Belgian, though.

By your earlier logic, he shouldn't be trusted with this claim any more than Wikipedia or Britannica should be trusted with the claim of British origins.

Seems like we'd need a non-British, non-Belgian source to make any definitive claim, right? /s

Post reply on HN