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“We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

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Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#251
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know we're talking about drone strikes, but we should always and forever note that the civilian casualties from the US' war on terror far outweighs [0] those who died from terrorism. Not to mention the US troops who died to make Iraqi oil available to US businesses, or who continue to die by suicide and social deaths related to their experiences in the war [1]. [0] https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/W…

Ya, I wouldn't defend the broader war. I think Afghanistan was reasonable and necessary but probably should have been more surgical, and Iraq was basically indefensible. However, conditional on being committed to fighting the wars, I think drone strikes are an excellent tactical choice.

And now think about other countries conducting drone strikes on US soil as they see fit. It would be only fair, right? And what level of collateral damage would be acceptable in that scenario? 2000-3000 would be OK? Maybe 10000-20000 since those other countries can't afford precision munitions and global surveillance network. It's easy to justify any number of collateral damage when it's not you and yours that is the collateral damage.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would prefer to be tried in a court of law, you?

It's not the choice you have though in areas where those killings take place. It's either drone strikes or nothing. Boots on the ground to catch bad guys and bring then to court isn't possible.

You're essentially saying that it's perfectly reasonable for the CIA to extra-judicially kill any people in Pakistan with virtually no oversight, because the CIA gets to decide who is a "bad guy" and has a right to operate in any foreign country at will, whether the country accepts it or not.

Respectfully, I beg to differ.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, the US military practically has a blank check. I can think of multiple decade-long government projects off of the top of my head (including from NASA) that had entire programs scrapped because they ran out of money. Overages from a single military program, like the F-35, have eclipsed the entire budget of those canceled projects.

That has more to do with the fact that Congress hasn't the backbone to call the Executive to heel on spending or transparency, or to empower OIG/GAO to pierce the national security veil. You can't make actionable tweaks to the system when the books are compartmentalized. None of that though doesn't cost money. Which is why I question the logic that Ad serving is somehow more responsive or accurate because a false-pos…

Congress is considerable source of explicit allowance for overages in such projects, including at times forcing politically popular purchases that military doesn't want. While forcing inefficiencies in procurement from projects having to buy votes by spreading production.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#254
post #33
post #8

"Signature strikes" -- the target has a signature (movement, data, use of a satellite phone or specific cellular number, entourage, etc) that matches that of an HVT (high value taget) that is authorized for termination by drone strike. The CIA has killed lots of the wrong people because "signature strikes" don't require second source intelligence to verify who the target is (eg: is the person using the satellite phon…

"Signatures" aren't necessarily better or worse than other sources. Other sources can be mistakes or intentional lies. What matters is the quality of the totality of the evidence, and how well convinced we are of what the accuracy based on past experience; and how much the deciders knew about last inaccuracies, when deciding to continue a practice. Statistical decision making is very slippery stuff.

If you use the same statistic model to estimate how likely it is for people to be a danger to others for political reasons, also called terrorism in some cases, you very likely would need to shoot those that implemented these decisions.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#255
post #81
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is assassination we are talking about, not ad serving

Uncertainty is (unfortunately) everywhere; for example, what probability is “beyond a reasonable doubt”? There are many who take issue with that question, but the answers I’ve seen range between 0.1% and 5%, with no general consensus.

But there are also people that acknowledge the existence of uncertainty and draw conclusions from that. Countries without a death penalty for example. Uncertainty being a fact is not a free ticket.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#256
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uncertainty is (unfortunately) everywhere; for example, what probability is “beyond a reasonable doubt”? There are many who take issue with that question, but the answers I’ve seen range between 0.1% and 5%, with no general consensus.

What's the appeal process for being assassinated by the CIA like?

The CIA will torture any witnesses of you having had any life and then denies that you ever existed.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> "Signatures" aren't necessarily better or worse than other sources. Right, they are almost always worse than first-hand information, and they are almost always better than low-grade intelligence obtained under pressure/influence (like the WMDs in Iraq). That is no justification.

>> Right, they are almost always worse than first-hand information, You're probably right about this, in a sense, but it beckons a pretty interesting question: provide an example when "signatures" are better than first-hand information. Counter example: If your job is to find enemy subs, then sonar feedback off the hull of a Akula Class nuclear attack sub may be better than direct visual observation of the sub

Nobody complains too loudly if you fire a torpedo at a blue whale, but there would be dire consequences if you hit the wrong sub. I wouldn't call sonar contacts statistical evidence though, even if it is partially correct.

The counter example doesn't fit. In you example the sub is hostile because it is Russian. Here the people are convicted to death by circumstantial evidence. Very, very bad circumstantial evidence. It is just "worth" it because there are little consequences for the murderers.

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

-> some basic rules have to be followed if only to ensure citizenry that they are followed. I guess one of those rules could be: Don't travel overseas to participate in a war against the US government. Yes, I understand, this is a hard rule to follow, especially if you're of the rebellious bent, but comfort requires compromise.

I heard engineer_22 participates in a war against the US government. Oh wait, you'd like due process?

The "facilities" seem to match. I think that qualifies as enough statistical evidence, no?

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would prefer to be tried in a court of law, you?

That's a false equivalence though and not what the alternative option is here. The government was killing its enemies 100 years before the word digital was invented and will continue to do so as long as government exist. They will use every technology invented in the pursuit of doing so. Blaming metadata signature based approaches is no different than blaming their use of satellites, metallurgy, hell the wheel is a b…

Or the use of chemical and nuclear weapons according to your logic. War has to deal with public perception. See Vietnam or Iraq. Tough reality, huh?

Re: “We kill people based on metadata” and other metadata things

#260
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget American citizens are on the table too, no due process required! EDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_al-Awlaki Thank you Jaywalk for the correct link

If you're in a foreign country aiding what is essentially a terrorist group or directly fighting for them on the front lines, why do you expect they would get due process?

Did you just cite Putin?
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