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Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

bloomberg.com

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Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#181
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It gives a child a normal childhood and saves them from a system of foster care that can never fully meet the needs of a child?

Much respect to those who adopt, but bloodlines matter

If you place value on them and decide they matter, sure.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#182
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an opposite data point: in Israel, military service of 3 years is mandatory for males, 2 years for females. Israel has BY FAR the highest fertility in the OECD. So military service probably isn't a strong correlation here.

The highest fertility rates in Israel, by far, are in groups exempted from mandatory military service.

> Among Jews, the TFR among Haredim has fluctuated around 7 children per woman since the 1980s, and around 2.5 children per woman among the secular and the traditional who identify as not religious. However, Haredi fertility in the 2007 to 2013 period was lower than in the 1990s, while fertility in the non-Haredi Jewish population has increased since then.

> Even among Jewish women who self-identify as secular and traditional but not religious, the combined TFR exceeds 2.2, making it higher than the TFR in all other OECD countries.

https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/israels-exceptiona...

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#183
post #19

What's the harm? By the end of the century robots will be doing most of the work anyway. People can concentrate on the things that matter to them instead.

Robots don't buy products or services, meaning your revenues are shrinking. Meanwhile growing numbers of elderly citizens who require care are going to be supported by an ever smaller pool of young workers who will be overworked instead of starting families of their own. You have a spiral of death which is likely unavoidable.

At that point the actual workers might decide to just stop pouring endless resources in to keeping elderly people alive at all costs.

This is only a problem because we gained the ability to keep people alive much longer given extreme resources. If we just cap the resources dedicated here we would have no issue.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#184

My wife and I are Korean-American, albeit with many ties to our country of origin. Something I've noticed is that many couples that do want a child have a very difficult time conceiving. People are having kids at a later age on average, but even younger couples seem to have a hard time. Various gynecological disorders seem to be very common too - fibroids, endometriosis, adenomyosis, amongst others, all of which affe…

father of twins (10 Y/O) via medical help here. 10 years ago our doctor said, "30 years ago the natural rate of twins was 3 sets per 1000 births. Now it's 3 sets per 100 births". After a quick search I couldn't find any data supporting a 10x increase in twins over the past 40 years but plenty of articles showing something closer to a 2x increase in the rate of twin births. I suspect the rate of twins amongst our peer group is skewed though since we're upper middle class surrounded by similar peers who can all afford fertility treatments so it appears that there are way more twins then ever...

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Wanna guess what happens in that welcoming environment? My guess is people feel inclined to make some babies. I would assume the exact opposite given that this will probably probably crank up pressure on working-aged people as more and more old people need to be supported by fewer and fewer young. I would also assume a significant exodus of the young to places with actual opportunities rather than a country sized re…

This was my exact same though while reading OP's comment. Taxes will go way up since the number of people having to support all the old people will be fewer and fewer. The increased taxes will cause people to have fewer and fewer children. It's a vicious cycle.

Fortunately tax policy can be adjusted to encourage things you want to happen within a society. If taxes are punitive, tax credits for having children would lead to a baby boom based on the same logic.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#186
post #22

Something has deeply deeply changed in society for a fertility rate to go from 6 to 0.8 in 60 years, the living memory of a single life. Before, society grew with the average working age person only needing to half support an elderly retiree. Now, that same working age person will need to support more than 2 elderly retirees themselves, over 4 times the resources. Has it occurred to people that, maybe, modern fertili…

There's just a lump in the population vs. age graph and you're fixating on the back side of the lump as if it's inevitably going towards zero. After the lump passes through South Koreans will look around and see a lack of traffic congestion, abundance of housing, lack of competitors for their now abundant resources, and lack of disproportionately large population of unproductive elderly dependents. Wanna guess what h…

> How about some DATA: go to https://population.io, select Rep. of Korea, plug in some age/gender b.s. and scroll down to "Age Distribution" at the left column. Now look to the left of ~20yo (younger than 20), it's a nearly horizontal line. What does that tell you?

Yeah, something is definitely wrong with the site because actual population pyramid data looks much more alarming:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2019%EB%85%84_%ED%95...

Or https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... as mentioned by a sibling comment.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#187
post #162

Birth rates are low pretty much everywhere in the developed world, but South Korea is an outlier in how low they are. For example, Japan's fertility rate is 1.3, compared to Korea's 0.84. That's a huge difference. It's possible there's something unique to South Korea that causes it. Perhaps it's mandatory 2 years of military service for males. Or maybe their famously judgmental culture. I don't know.

As an opposite data point: in Israel, military service of 3 years is mandatory for males, 2 years for females. Israel has BY FAR the highest fertility in the OECD. So military service probably isn't a strong correlation here.

The fact that it's both men and women in Israel could be significant. I heard stories about people meeting their romantic partners in the army during the mandatory service.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#188
Korean politics is blaming feminism for this phenomenon, but it's really a mix of all the issues in the comments, as well as sexual crime injustices (bare minimal sentencing for sex crimes) and women afraid of bringing a child into such society. It's just a natural evolutionary reaction.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#189

My first kid just reached 18. Now I'm seriously thinking of having another one. Remember when we were younger and the world's population hit 7 billion, everyone was really, really concerned about overpopulation??? I even did not want to have any kids because of this. Now, Korea is seriously going to be worse than even Japan. And faster too. Back in Jamaica one of my grandma had 7 children, the other one had 8 (with 2…

The answer is easy. Middle easterners want kids for cultural and religious reasons. I know any talk of religion and/or culture is verboten in modern American discourse but it's a significant factor in most the world. Yet it makes most Americans uncomfortable

It also helps that Qatar (along with the UAE and Kuwait) provide hefty benefits to married couples for marriage and childbirth.

Emirati and Qatari women have almost 50% more children than Saudi women despite cultural similarities because their government offers crazy good benefits.

Saudi Arabia has less money per citizen so families bear more of the cost and opt for smaller families.

Culture plays a huge role but so do government incentives.

Re: Korea shatters its own record for world’s lowest fertility rate

#190
post #67
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nitpick: industrialisation started in Belgium.

Pretty much everything I can find says it started in Britain with textiles. Everything from Wikipedia, National Geographic, to Encyclopedia Britannica all say the same thing.

I discovered that, while the pages seem to follow the exact same structure and I suspect were written by the same person, the Dutch and English pages differ in a significant way: the English page says Wallonia/Belgium was the first industrialzed country in mainland Europe, while the Dutch page does not mention that qualification [1]. Elsewhere I found thr claim that Wallonia was the first fully industrialized region, but without year or source.

Timeline seems to be on your side though.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sillon_industriel

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