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The end of the manual transmission is near?

popularmechanics.com

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Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real issue isn't the demise of manual transmissions. It's the upcoming demise of transmissions entirely as electrification continues it's march towards ubiquity.

You need a lot more mining and environmental destruction to get enough batteries for replacing all cars with electric vehicles. Kind of wondering if maybe one day we could have safe micro reactors that can power vehicles.

More likely we just won't have cars.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#202

I wouldn't jump to this conclusion just yet! Porsche, Ferrari, etc all commanded huge premiums this year for their manual versions. Specifically among younger buyers and first time buyers! You even see this effect downmarket - Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. Manuals are also an order of magnitude less c…

Huge premiums != large market. It just means the market is bigger than their production. Manual transmissions are not "an order of magnitude less complex and cheaper." They're far more expensive because the volume is much lower and every configuration has to be crash-tested, so the cost of that crash testing is amortized over a much, much smaller number of vehicles. Manual transmission vehicles get significantly wors…

> Manual transmissions are not "an order of magnitude less complex and cheaper."

Don't take my word for it. Just look at the size of a manual drivetrain vs an automatic. The increase in steel is directly proportional to the engineering required/number of moving parts.

>Manual transmission vehicles get significantly worse mileage

While it's true that CVTs have finally surpassed manuals for fuel efficiency, I think you are largely overstating the difference. We are taking about 1 to 2 MPG difference.

Dual clutches are certainly faster, but again they are huge and complex things. And not more efficient. Among car enthusiasts, they are becoming about as popular as devices that chew your food for you - technically superior, but who cares?

>Early gearboxes had longevity issues (clutches) but that's largely been sorted out and is no worse than manual transmission cars.

I don't know how someone can take this seriously. A Nissan CVT is not even serviceable - you literally have to swap the entire unit when it goes bad. Which costs more than a used Nissan! Meanwhile a comparable manual will run as long as it's engine.

Again, there's fundamentally half as many moving parts in the drive train. You can't escape the laws of thermodynamics.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#203
I probably own my last manual car, a Scion XA. When I was a teenager, driving stick was fun. It conferred a feeling of skill and exclusiveness, and also a way to drive like a teenager despite an underpowered engine on my way to my cello lesson.

Today, I've paid my dues. I've pushed the lever back and forth, and stepped on the pedal, probably millions of times. It makes me feel like I'm in one of those psychology experiments, where they see how many times a rat will push a button in order to earn a pellet of food.

But also, driving has stopped being fun, due to congestion. Today it's just a chore.

Of course it's a matter of personal preference, I get that. Today, I like everything automatic. Get in, step on the pedal, go. Step on the other pedal, stop. Even better than automatic tranny, is adaptive cruise control. That's like night and day when on the highway.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#204
post #189

I wouldn't jump to this conclusion just yet! Porsche, Ferrari, etc all commanded huge premiums this year for their manual versions. Specifically among younger buyers and first time buyers! You even see this effect downmarket - Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. Manuals are also an order of magnitude less c…

> You even see this effect downmarket - Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. They didn't say never, just that it was unlikely. I think the new Nissan Z scared them into offering one. The timing was too perfect to be coincidental. From the lead engineer a few years ago: > Tada said he knows people keep asking…

Haha! Fair enough. I remember at the time this was considered bell tolling for manuals. And then a couple years later Toyota is showing up with their tail between their legs.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll never own an electric car?

It will be interesting exercise to design a "manual gearbox" for an electric car so manual transmission drivers can have their enjoyment.

Maybe we should just replace the windscreen with a big monitor and have all the controls and knobs just be controller inputs for some racing game so manual fans can pretend to be doing something interesting while their self driving electric car moves them to the office.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#206

I reiterate my compromise proposal: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32397975 I will give up my manual transmission, if you will bring back pull-knobs, twist knobs and other tactile switches for the main controls of my vehicle, with the appropriate tactile feedback at set points so I can set them without looking. After thinking on it, I am going to raise my demands, however: you also need to produce cars that are…

That's exactly what Olympian Motors is doing. They're a YC company.

It's beautifully styled imo and has only physical controls inside

https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/olympian-motors

https://olympianmotors.com/

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#207
This article misses mentioning that by far most EVs have no gear changing at all. The Porsche Taycan has 2 gears as did the original Tesla Roadster. Pretty much every other EV has one. So it's not only that manuals have been losing ground to automatics, but automatics have their days numbered as well.

Also grouping dual clutch transmissions like the PDK with regular old torque converter automatics is extremely silly.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#209
post #9

There's nothing worse than getting stuck in traffic going up a slick hill in a Midwest winter with a manual transmission. Your car goes backward!

In an old manual transmission, that's true. Modern cars have anti roll back systems. But also, use the hand brake.

You can also heel-toe it, but that takes significant practice.

Re: The end of the manual transmission is near?

#210
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a better compromise, a semi-automatic: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-automatic_transmission You choose when to change the gears but the computer deals with the clutch, best of both worlds.

But anyone that drives a manual will let you know it's mostly about the clutch and how you use it, rather than choosing what gear you're in. Using a clutch just right can produce amazing amount of torque just when you need it. Automatic clutch can be incredibly efficient, but it simply can't know what you want to do.

> Using a clutch just right can produce amazing amount of torque just when you need it.

Nailed it. Not to dismiss those romanticizing clutching and shifting, but that is incidental. The entire point of a manual transmission is performance. It's control over torque that delivers it.

I love that I can pump RPMs into the red before clutching into gear, the vigor of that power, G forces pulling the body against the seat, chirping wheels in 4th gear at 70mph, going up a steep hill with a quickness. (Crud, did I just romanticize torque?)

I find it hard to believe the ICE manual will ever die completely so long as there is a rally to race. No matter how quick an automatic electric is, it's not going to beat decent drivers of ICE manuals. But hopefully someday they'll all be rice burners, for the enviro.

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