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A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

reneweconomy.com.au

91–100 of 365 posts

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#91
post #78

While 120 GWh of electricity storage may be remotely feasible to build now, I would not characterize it as "little" in any way, shape or form.

It’s roughly 2 years worth of EV batteries sold in Australia right now.

So, calling it little storage actually sounds reasonable.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#92
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite a lot of people live in Texas and California where renewables are already pretty advanced, plus there's nuclear in the north, and they have hydro and grid connections with Canada who have even more hydro and nuclear so the USA should be easier. The US intends to hit this target (i.e. 95% carbon-free generation) in 8 years I think, with 100% and wider electrification of current fossil fuel uses in 2035 and it di…

> even before the recent climate bill passed What is in the bill that is investment in renewables? My understanding is that there aren’t so much subsidies to generators-suppliers, but rather rebates and savings for homeowners and consumers.

Fairly big incentives, including, for the first time, battery investments.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#93
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a lot of cynicism around renewable energy and electric cars and I frankly don't get it. The typical cynical approach is to point out one potential problem, and dismiss the entire solution as if it was worthless, which is obviously false. As others have pointed out, there are now HVDC lines that can go over thousands of kilometers (transcontinental scale!) with reasonable losses. There's no reason to believe tha…

Did you consider how strategical targets became such networks? How much geopolitics nightmares they represent?

Conversely, did you consider how much critical infrastructure we already have today, and how surprisingly little of it is targeted?

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#94
post #84

If you lower this to, say, 75%, a good analysis will show that a renewables grid with zero storage is possible around the world. Storage is only required for the last n % and n is much larger than most people realize. If we accept that the energy economy will shift with supply-and-demand based pricing, what can actually happen is having peak production oversupply which will find users with its lower prices enabling o…

That was Germany's plan. Go to at least 80% renewable and fill up the rest with natural gas power plants that can change the load quickly. Oops.

Germany’s problem wasn’t the end goal but the path to it.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#95
I believe that this model is built using Excel and VBScript. I would love to see the source code for this.

These sorts of things should be shared before anyone starts basing policy on it. I want to know the inputs, the outputs, etc. I want a lot of people going though this, looking at the data.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#96
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite a lot of people live in Texas and California where renewables are already pretty advanced, plus there's nuclear in the north, and they have hydro and grid connections with Canada who have even more hydro and nuclear so the USA should be easier. The US intends to hit this target (i.e. 95% carbon-free generation) in 8 years I think, with 100% and wider electrification of current fossil fuel uses in 2035 and it di…

I read somewhere that it's the storage/distribution part that's hurting California. Can't go full-throttle without disaster. If the storage/distribution part was worked out, CA would be full renewable tomorrow.

Is California at the point now where more renewables are not just diminishing returns, but potentially negative returns due to inconsistent generation causing thrashing and large levels of curtailment required to stabilize the grid?

They're definitely causing faster natural gas generator breakdown due to them having turning up and down more frequently, causing greater wear and tear.

More batteries and demand response to stabilize the day to day grid and absorb the uncontrollable generation output is going to be increasingly necessary.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#97
post #57

"in Australia" is an important qualification here. Australia has a very high ratio of available solar and wind energy to population. Not that getting Australia fully on renewables wouldn't be exciting. But it is definitely an easier target than say the US.

Quite a lot of people live in Texas and California where renewables are already pretty advanced, plus there's nuclear in the north, and they have hydro and grid connections with Canada who have even more hydro and nuclear so the USA should be easier. The US intends to hit this target (i.e. 95% carbon-free generation) in 8 years I think, with 100% and wider electrification of current fossil fuel uses in 2035 and it di…

62% of the power in Oregon comes from renewables, mostly renewables that are available 24/7.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#98

I believe that this model is built using Excel and VBScript. I would love to see the source code for this. These sorts of things should be shared before anyone starts basing policy on it. I want to know the inputs, the outputs, etc. I want a lot of people going though this, looking at the data.

As a homeowner (1750 sqft, 100% electric with one EV [no gas appliances or fireplace]) in a dry (9-10 inches of rain per year) climate with a small 8.4kW solar installation with one 13.4kW battery, I can tell you that if we had 5-10kW more battery storage our home would be 100% off grid. As it stands now we're 71% self-powered with a current energy offset of 106%.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#99
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read somewhere that it's the storage/distribution part that's hurting California. Can't go full-throttle without disaster. If the storage/distribution part was worked out, CA would be full renewable tomorrow.

Is California at the point now where more renewables are not just diminishing returns, but potentially negative returns due to inconsistent generation causing thrashing and large levels of curtailment required to stabilize the grid? They're definitely causing faster natural gas generator breakdown due to them having turning up and down more frequently, causing greater wear and tear. More batteries and demand response…

No, because there never is such an issue. Renewables can turn themselves off and on so fast that this won't ever be a problem. The current Australian model we're discussing has about 15% 'overgeneration' because that's economically efficient, there's no problems caused by that.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#100
I'm very impressed to learn about Snowy 2.0. Of course, it's not a silver bullet - in a renewable world, storage will have to be fairly distributed across the grid to maintain frequency.

For comparison, it seems Germany uses nearly 2x more electricity than Australia and currently has about 10x less pumped storage (including wip) than what Snowy 2.0 will have alone.

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