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Euro falls below parity with the dollar

reuters.com

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Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#221

Post by throwayyy479087 »

mojuba wrote: post #140
mutatio wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ECB has its hands tied behind its back, perfect storms like this highlight one of the benefits of a country having its own currency and fiscal policy - the ECB cannot move like UK/US as reconciling Greece/Italy and Germany/Northern Europe can't be done without massive pain for the south.

On the other hand though, the Eurozone population pretty much equals that of the US, and surely there are a bit underdeveloped US states compared to the overdeveloped ones, right? So why is the EU bad idea and the US is not?

The difference in per-capita GDP between the poorest and wealthiest US states is small compared to EU nations. I did some quick research:

Luxembourg GDP Per Capita: 114,370

Ireland GDP Per Capita: 83,990

-----

Romania GDP Per Capita: 12,510

Bulgaria GDP Per Capita: 9,850

vs:

New York GDP Per Capita: 93,463

-----

Mississippi GDP Per Capita: 42,411

Yes, NY transfers wealth to Mississippi but the scale of transfer and the relative number of wealthy states vs poor (there's like 5 in the deep south) means the dynamic is completely different. Without significant development in ex-Soviet states I'm not sure how the EU can hold together longterm.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#222

Post by thehappypm »

lm28469 wrote: post #188
brundolf wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem they're having is with natural gas, which they need for winter heating

It's mostly exaggerated. Some of my friends are already complaining because they won't be able to keep their flat at 25c in winter... I haven't used heating in 5 years in Berlin, at the coldest it was 17c in my flat, having grown in the mountain that's my comfy zone People want to live like kings for 50 euros a month, reality is catching up

Sounds like you were mooching off the heat of nearby flats :)

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#223

Post by atwood22 »

orangepurple wrote: post #85
simonh wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can do innovation, the problem is scaling up to the mass market. The EU is supposed to be a massive single market at scale to rival the US and China, and in some ways it is, but it still has a fragments cultural and legal landscape. The gravitational pull of the US on European dev talent is really hard to ignore. Every year the cream of European IT graduates move to the US because that's where the big companies a…

On what visa do these students move and work on in the US? The US visa process is extremely onerous

Many people come over on an L1 visa. A U.S. company will higher a foreign worker, have them work in a foreign office for one year, and then they qualify for an L1 visa.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#224

Post by dang »

password1 wrote: post #99
mg wrote: post #33

Every article about the EUR/USD ratio talks about gas prices. But the current rise of the Dollar started 15 years ago. Over these 15 years, it has become more and more apparent, that software is eating the world. And the US keeps extending their lead in this area. I would not be surprised if that contributes to a long term trend in the EUR/USD ratio. (I'm sitting in a cafe in Germany, writing this text on laptop made…

Please burst your bubble and consider that there is WAY more going on in the world than tech and software. The idea that you can point at something as complex as monetary economics and say "I know what's happening and I can trace it back to 15 years" is absurd and over-simplistic.

Please edit swipes out of your comments here. They degrade discussion and you can make your substantive points without them.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#225

Post by mojuba »

throwayyy479087 wrote: post #221
mojuba wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand though, the Eurozone population pretty much equals that of the US, and surely there are a bit underdeveloped US states compared to the overdeveloped ones, right? So why is the EU bad idea and the US is not?

The difference in per-capita GDP between the poorest and wealthiest US states is small compared to EU nations. I did some quick research: Luxembourg GDP Per Capita: 114,370 Ireland GDP Per Capita: 83,990 ----- Romania GDP Per Capita: 12,510 Bulgaria GDP Per Capita: 9,850 vs: New York GDP Per Capita: 93,463 ----- Mississippi GDP Per Capita: 42,411 Yes, NY transfers wealth to Mississippi but the scale of transfer and t…

Neither Romania nor Bulgaria use the Euro as a currency. I meant literally the Eurozone - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#226

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

emaginniss wrote: post #89
KingOfCoders wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let the Russians bomb and invade Washington State and we'll see how the dollar does.

I think if the Russians bombed Washington State, the rest of the US would actually help defend it by attacking Russia. While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great, it is far below the level that the other states would provide Washington. I know that isn't exactly your point, but you can't say that Ukraine is as intrinsic to the EU as Washington State is to the rest of the US.

> While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great

It seems adequate. Europe is helping Ukraine and putting pressure for a quick end to the conflict.

The real question is why is the US helping so much to the point Ukraine is refusing to negotiate. Part of me thinks it’s actually advantageous to them to weaken both Russia and the EU.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#227

Post by vandreas2 »

throwayyy479087 wrote: post #221
mojuba wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand though, the Eurozone population pretty much equals that of the US, and surely there are a bit underdeveloped US states compared to the overdeveloped ones, right? So why is the EU bad idea and the US is not?

The difference in per-capita GDP between the poorest and wealthiest US states is small compared to EU nations. I did some quick research: Luxembourg GDP Per Capita: 114,370 Ireland GDP Per Capita: 83,990 ----- Romania GDP Per Capita: 12,510 Bulgaria GDP Per Capita: 9,850 vs: New York GDP Per Capita: 93,463 ----- Mississippi GDP Per Capita: 42,411 Yes, NY transfers wealth to Mississippi but the scale of transfer and t…

There is significant development in ex Soviet states

https://tradingeconomics.com/romania/gdp-per-capita

https://tradingeconomics.com/estonia/gdp-per-capita

https://tradingeconomics.com/bulgaria/gdp-per-capita

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-per-capita

https://tradingeconomics.com/lithuania/gdp-per-capita

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#228

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

nickff wrote: post #216
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deeply negative real rates and little indication that the ECB has the stomach for any substantive action. You can't have positive real rates AND pump up the real estate bubble. There are two parts to growth - population and actual growth. The majority of "actual" GDP growth for the last 20 years in the West has been people paying more money (inflation adjusted) for the same land. Why? Because you could! Interest on…

You seem to be implying or assuming that increased real estate prices lead to increased rent, but that's a non-sequitor; in fact, rents have become decoupled from real estate prices in many areas over the past 20 years.

I find this incredibly hard to believe, especially when it's not hard to find people that buy houses for the sole purpose of renting them out[0]. In order to ensure you at least break even in the short term, you'd need to charge a rent at least equal to the mortgage + property tax.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#229

Post by s1artibartfast »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #147
HatchedLake721 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the definition of "major war"? It's the biggest war on the continent since WW2 where two countries with 100,000s of soldiers fight each other with modern weapons.

People tend to forget Yugoslavia, which was really in the heart of Europe and killed about 150k people. There is a lot of hyperbole about Ukraine, not least because of Russia but so far it is not intrinsically disruptive outside of Ukraine's (and Russia's) borders beyond the disruption to Ukraine's exports (e.g. wheat). The disruption to gas supplies on Europe is mostly self-inflicted and not an intrinsic consequence…

>The disruption to gas supplies on Europe is mostly self-inflicted and not an intrinsic consequence of the war.

If Europe wanted, they could simply go back to business as usual and ignore the war entirely.

It's surprising that people forget that the EU initiated the financial war with Russia

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#230

Post by makomk »

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #226
emaginniss wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if the Russians bombed Washington State, the rest of the US would actually help defend it by attacking Russia. While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great, it is far below the level that the other states would provide Washington. I know that isn't exactly your point, but you can't say that Ukraine is as intrinsic to the EU as Washington State is to the rest of the US.

> While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great It seems adequate. Europe is helping Ukraine and putting pressure for a quick end to the conflict. The real question is why is the US helping so much to the point Ukraine is refusing to negotiate. Part of me thinks it’s actually advantageous to them to weaken both Russia and the EU.

The US, through NATO, is committed to defending much of Europe and the EU against Russian invasion if they decide to try anything. This war was an opportunity to demonstrate that the price will be too high to for Russia to pay and that they will not be allowed to get away with annexing other European countries, while destroying a large chunk of their military capacity in the process, all without having to actually commit the US military to fighting on the ground like they would if Russia decided to get grabby elsewhere. It is in their direct interests to seize that opportunity.
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