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Euro falls below parity with the dollar

reuters.com

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Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#191

Post by 3minus1 »

password1 wrote: post #99
mg wrote: post #33

Every article about the EUR/USD ratio talks about gas prices. But the current rise of the Dollar started 15 years ago. Over these 15 years, it has become more and more apparent, that software is eating the world. And the US keeps extending their lead in this area. I would not be surprised if that contributes to a long term trend in the EUR/USD ratio. (I'm sitting in a cafe in Germany, writing this text on laptop made…

Please burst your bubble and consider that there is WAY more going on in the world than tech and software. The idea that you can point at something as complex as monetary economics and say "I know what's happening and I can trace it back to 15 years" is absurd and over-simplistic.

making a blanket dismissal and providing no actual argument or data doesn't exactly help

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#192

Post by lm28469 »

Jochim wrote: post #81
brundolf wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem they're having is with natural gas, which they need for winter heating

Petroleum prices also spiked, probably related to the war in Ukraine but I'm not 100% sure.

Sure, nothing to do with megacorps absolutely milking the market.... https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/teaser/27887.jpeg

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#193

Post by est31 »

simonh wrote: post #63
cloutchaser wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its both really. In Europe you can’t do innovation, or it’s an order of magnitude more expensive.

You can do innovation, the problem is scaling up to the mass market. The EU is supposed to be a massive single market at scale to rival the US and China, and in some ways it is, but it still has a fragments cultural and legal landscape. The gravitational pull of the US on European dev talent is really hard to ignore. Every year the cream of European IT graduates move to the US because that's where the big companies a…

Shouldn't cheaper dev talent mean that it's easier to start a Google etc. competitor? Many of those smart IT graduates also stay in the EU for various reasons, and accept the lower pay.

The point about the market I agree, the EU market is way too fragmented still, but it's slowly getting there.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#194

Post by lm28469 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #93
KingOfCoders wrote: post #67

Last time a major war was in Europe, currencies tanked much more. I'm glad the EUR is as stable as it is while Europe is bombed by Russia.

Europe is not bombed by Russia and there is no 'major war' disrupting the continent. There is very localised war in Ukraine, which objective impact so far only concerns what Ukraine exports, mostly wheat at this point.

> mostly wheat at this point

Wheat and a few million people who had to leave their country, but yeah, wheat...

It obviously is a major crisis in Europe and has many ramifications, if all your neighbours mysteriously die in the same week it won't affect you personally but you surely will feel down or threatened. If it was just about wheat nobody would care, Ukrainian wheat isn't even exported to EU countries

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#195

Post by blibble »

yuan43 wrote: post #59

The headline is "Gas crisis sends euro back below parity against dollar." Yet the article does not explain how a "gas crisis" leads to a weaker currency. What does lead to a weaker currency? On the EU side, central bank accommodation in the face of inflation ripping higher. Germany recently logged a 37% YoY annual increase in producer prices: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economic-outlook... And the ECB…

the euro was supposed to make its constituent economies converge, but the exact opposite happened

the only real solutions are:

full fiscal union (the EU decides Germany/France/...'s budget, with redistribution)

or collapse of the euro

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#196

Post by v-erne »

nine_zeros wrote: post #77
BenjiWiebe wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it really be that bad? Now I work very close to home, but when I didn't, I'd meet people commuting the other way. If it was no longer profitable to commute, we could either move to be closer to our job or switch jobs to be closer to home.

> Would it really be that bad? Are you asking about America? This summer, my wife's friend ($70k/yr) was considering a tradeoff between eating healthy vs supporting her mom's rent. Going closer to work is not a choice for many as rents closer to work are prohibitively high. Further, a lot of driving is errands and healthcare. I can't even get something to eat without driving 5 mins.

Wow that's really bad - I have like four big supermarkets in 5 min walking distance from my flat and at least 4 convinience stores and even two real old school street markets. And I live on the far outsikrts of my town. And this is the norm here.

How Americans could screw themselves so much and let this happen ?

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#197

Post by mytailorisrich »

lm28469 wrote: post #194
mytailorisrich wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe is not bombed by Russia and there is no 'major war' disrupting the continent. There is very localised war in Ukraine, which objective impact so far only concerns what Ukraine exports, mostly wheat at this point.

> mostly wheat at this point Wheat and a few million people who had to leave their country, but yeah, wheat... It obviously is a major crisis in Europe and has many ramifications, if all your neighbours mysteriously die in the same week it won't affect you personally but you surely will feel down or threatened. If it was just about wheat nobody would care, Ukrainian wheat isn't even exported to EU countries

Two things on this:

People left early in the war because of panic and because Russia was trying to invade the while of Ukraine. But if we look at the situation now, arguably there is no reason to have refugees outside of Ukraine.

Second thing is that, in any case, the Ukrainian refugees are not disruptive at continent level, though they might be in specific areas near Ukraine.

Of course a war, any war, is disruptive and horrible for the people involved. But we're looking at the macro impact on Europe here.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#198

Post by mhh__ »

yuan43 wrote: post #59

The headline is "Gas crisis sends euro back below parity against dollar." Yet the article does not explain how a "gas crisis" leads to a weaker currency. What does lead to a weaker currency? On the EU side, central bank accommodation in the face of inflation ripping higher. Germany recently logged a 37% YoY annual increase in producer prices: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economic-outlook... And the ECB…

With financial news you can basically just say

"[current geopolitics] leads to price going [up or down]". Even with a survey of big players markets don't always have a simple interpretation

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#199

Post by pjmlp »

fzfaa wrote: post #95
mutatio wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ECB has its hands tied behind its back, perfect storms like this highlight one of the benefits of a country having its own currency and fiscal policy - the ECB cannot move like UK/US as reconciling Greece/Italy and Germany/Northern Europe can't be done without massive pain for the south.

It's time to inflict massive pain for the south. Can't spend any more decades wasting money.

If you want more "Brexits" that is certainly the way to influence public opinion and the growing national parties.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#200

Post by pjmlp »

fzfaa wrote: post #116
jacquesm wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not wasting money. They simply don't have the massive wealth of the North to jump off from or to cushion blows. On top of that a large quantity of what they do earn is spent on interest payments to the North.

I am from the south. We are wasting money and producing too little. We don't have the massive wealth of the north because we are culturally incapable of behaving some other way.

Yet when we move north we are able to be productive, so maybe we are failing to bring that cultural change back home.
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