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Euro falls below parity with the dollar

reuters.com

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Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#171

Post by blibble »

b112 wrote: post #129
yuan43 wrote: post #59

The headline is "Gas crisis sends euro back below parity against dollar." Yet the article does not explain how a "gas crisis" leads to a weaker currency. What does lead to a weaker currency? On the EU side, central bank accommodation in the face of inflation ripping higher. Germany recently logged a 37% YoY annual increase in producer prices: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economic-outlook... And the ECB…

Yet the article does not explain how a "gas crisis" leads to a weaker currency. One thing I find weird (a touchy point?) is that the UK left. Yes, that was a few years ago, but my point is historical EU / Euro pricing is now diminished overall, in its up/down cycle. COVID threw this asunder, so we did not see true fiscal results from UK leaving. And the UK left over a few years, making the departure less dramatic. Th…

the UK never joined the euro

the europhiles in the UK attempted the first steps of joining (ERM1), which pegged the pound with the deutschmark

it was forced out when George Soros and friends attacked the peg on Black Wednesday

immediately prior to this the ERM was known an the Eternal Recession Mechanism (which is now exactly what the euro is)

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#172

Post by cma »

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #110
password1 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please burst your bubble and consider that there is WAY more going on in the world than tech and software. The idea that you can point at something as complex as monetary economics and say "I know what's happening and I can trace it back to 15 years" is absurd and over-simplistic.

No big sector has seen similar level of YoY growth like tech. STOXX 600 is almost flat for last 20 years. While S and P 500 and Nasdaq rose 5-10 times over that period. While tech is not everything for the economy, it seems tech is everything for economy growth in past 30 or so years.

If workers get more pay, it can take from profits and share values go down, but the economy can still go up.

Same if industries just gets more competitive, the economy can go way up with no change or with a loss in profit.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#173

Post by mytailorisrich »

tzs wrote: post #157
mytailorisrich wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe is not bombed by Russia and there is no 'major war' disrupting the continent. There is very localised war in Ukraine, which objective impact so far only concerns what Ukraine exports, mostly wheat at this point.

It also has impacted what Russia exports. Some Russian exports are rather important to much of the EU.

It's quite different.

The war does not intrinsically disrupt Russian exports, including gas, to Europe.

Europe has made decisions based on various considerations and those decisions have resulted in disruption.

I think it's useful to sort consequences we're seeing depending on the level of control or leeway parties have on them.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#174

Post by tt293 »

b112 wrote: post #129
yuan43 wrote: post #59

The headline is "Gas crisis sends euro back below parity against dollar." Yet the article does not explain how a "gas crisis" leads to a weaker currency. What does lead to a weaker currency? On the EU side, central bank accommodation in the face of inflation ripping higher. Germany recently logged a 37% YoY annual increase in producer prices: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economic-outlook... And the ECB…

Yet the article does not explain how a "gas crisis" leads to a weaker currency. One thing I find weird (a touchy point?) is that the UK left. Yes, that was a few years ago, but my point is historical EU / Euro pricing is now diminished overall, in its up/down cycle. COVID threw this asunder, so we did not see true fiscal results from UK leaving. And the UK left over a few years, making the departure less dramatic. Th…

Because the UK's currency performed so much better against the USD since Brexit than the Euro?

Maybe check the facts first.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#175

Post by benhurmarcel »

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #110
password1 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please burst your bubble and consider that there is WAY more going on in the world than tech and software. The idea that you can point at something as complex as monetary economics and say "I know what's happening and I can trace it back to 15 years" is absurd and over-simplistic.

No big sector has seen similar level of YoY growth like tech. STOXX 600 is almost flat for last 20 years. While S and P 500 and Nasdaq rose 5-10 times over that period. While tech is not everything for the economy, it seems tech is everything for economy growth in past 30 or so years.

That tech stock growth doesn't translate to any benefit for the average citizen.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#177

Post by coffee_beqn »

emaginniss wrote: post #89
KingOfCoders wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let the Russians bomb and invade Washington State and we'll see how the dollar does.

I think if the Russians bombed Washington State, the rest of the US would actually help defend it by attacking Russia. While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great, it is far below the level that the other states would provide Washington. I know that isn't exactly your point, but you can't say that Ukraine is as intrinsic to the EU as Washington State is to the rest of the US.

Ukraine is also not in the EU.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#178

Post by macco »

mojuba wrote: post #140
mutatio wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ECB has its hands tied behind its back, perfect storms like this highlight one of the benefits of a country having its own currency and fiscal policy - the ECB cannot move like UK/US as reconciling Greece/Italy and Germany/Northern Europe can't be done without massive pain for the south.

On the other hand though, the Eurozone population pretty much equals that of the US, and surely there are a bit underdeveloped US states compared to the overdeveloped ones, right? So why is the EU bad idea and the US is not?

It's about fiscal policy. The EU has no unified fiscal policy. It can't raise taxes for transfers from north to south.

Almost every economist said in 98 that the euro is a bad idea. And it is for the south of Europe. It's great for the north and Germany especially, but for the south it is and has a killer.

In my opinion, the Euro will ultimately break the current EU.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#179

Post by cma »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #98
ejanus wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you break that circle?

> How do you break that circle? I think it’s intrinsic to the models. The U.S. pays top performers better. But the average European has a more-stable lifestyle. The same regulations and labor protections that grant that stability slow down growth, so apart from an internal restructuring it’s tough to see the situation changing.

There is also a hub effect aside from pay. Shannen has all the electronics companies because it is a huge where you can buy anything. A hub can happen randomly outside of policy, like a crystal growing in solution (and it can also be triggered if there isnt one, like dipping a string into super saturated cooled solution).

Remote work is kind of in the process of dissolving the crystallization for software.

Re: Euro falls below parity with the dollar

#180

Post by anton96 »

fzfaa wrote: post #116
jacquesm wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not wasting money. They simply don't have the massive wealth of the North to jump off from or to cushion blows. On top of that a large quantity of what they do earn is spent on interest payments to the North.

I am from the south. We are wasting money and producing too little. We don't have the massive wealth of the north because we are culturally incapable of behaving some other way.

That's a very generalist statement that doesn't explain much.

That is totally to forgot that Italy has been cost reduction/ austerity since the 90's. Precisely when it's started to do that, its economy stalled.

Spain had its debt going from 30% to 70% after the 2008 crisis.

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