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I Choose Optimism

secularhumanism.org

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Re: I Choose Optimism

#61

Post by maxbendick »

In analyzing political pieces (especially one so concerned with The Enlightenment), it's important to go deeper than content. What moved someone to put so much effort into this thought specifically? Nietzsche, critic of enlightenment, would ask: "which kind of will-to-power is expressed here?"

Steven Pinker is popular among accomplished people, and there's no conspiracy about this: rational optimism just gets that crowd going. Maybe it's because they don't have much better to worry about!

Reading this kind of writing is like eating a bag of candy. I eat one saccharine piece of "{X} good thing has grown by {Y}%", and then I grasp for the next morsel before I've finished chewing the first.

Re: I Choose Optimism

#62

Post by throwanapple »

systemvoltage wrote: post #54
adrianN wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy gets better for more people in more places than ever before. Environmental destruction is also progressing faster than ever before. Many crucial ecosystems are on the brink of collapse (e.g. the rainforests) and we show no signs of intending to protect them.

Media doesn't report good things that happen in the environment. From 2013-2019, they hammered constantly on how the Great Barrier Reef was dying. But, not a peep when they found that it is healthiest its ever been in recent history: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/parts-australia... No wonder the trust in media has fallen to the lowest. Reuters/AP are informative as a root source, but I have stopped tru…

Regarding the Great Barrier Reef, it's not as simple as you're saying: https://theconversation.com/record-coral-cover-doesnt-necess...

Re: I Choose Optimism

#63

Post by archhn »

M3L0NM4N wrote: post #42
archhn wrote: post #12

You choose homeostasis. Feeeling good about the future makes you feel good. This leads to immediate improvements in one's quality of life. People are attracted to those who have a "positive outlook." No one likes hanging around a doomsayer. This author clearly lives in a place where he can afford such optimism. It's not so easy in the slums of Tanzania.

I believe feeling good about the future with many specific reasons to feel good about the future is totally valid though. Ask yourself why people in the slums of Tanzania might not be "optimistic about the future". Is it because of their poor current living situation, or is it because they don't see as much of the political, scientific, and social progress being made over time globally? I'd argue it's more likely the…

I don't know what's going to happen in the future. No one does. I don't have all the facts. And even if I did, I would need a galaxy brain to integrate them all into an outlook. Not everything is publicized. There are many groups of people who work to further their own agendas. We aren't one globe, one humanity. It's a nice idea, but it doesn't reflect reality.

I base my pessimism on the childishness I see flourishing in adults who have lost contact with reality because they've never endured serious hardship. These people can be easily manipulated because they have little fear. They have never made life or death decisions. So they don't understand the significance of forming an accurate model of the world. The result is a nation full of dreamers. Such people are ill adapted to the real world and will naturally be ineffective in all that they do.

There are very strong incentives for forming an optimistic outlook. None of these are conditioned on data or serious consideration. I think people look for reasons to justify how they want to feel. In other words, optimism precedes the reasons one has for being optimistic.

Voltaire lampooned optimism very well in Candide. His ultimate conclusion was: don't waste your time on idealistic notions of a world in which terrible things are always happening; instead, tend to your garden--do your best to improve what you can and no more. This is a wise suggestion. Optimism and pessimism are both traps. They are pathological extensions of present conditions.

I wish I could heed this wisdom...

Re: I Choose Optimism

#64

Post by boxed »

maxbendick wrote: post #61

In analyzing political pieces (especially one so concerned with The Enlightenment), it's important to go deeper than content. What moved someone to put so much effort into this thought specifically? Nietzsche, critic of enlightenment, would ask: "which kind of will-to-power is expressed here?" Steven Pinker is popular among accomplished people, and there's no conspiracy about this: rational optimism just gets that cr…

This comment is a text book case of projection. Everything written above is 100% true of the comment itself. Critical but without substance. Looks down their nose but not realizing they are lying on their back and actually lookup UP.

The original article and Pinker are quite clear: there are HUGE problems to be solved. Theirs is not a philosophy of complacency, but of hard work. REAL hard work that can actually SUCCEED. Unlike complaining, and unlike just ignoring the problem, and unlike pretending everything is getting worse when we know it isn't.

Re: I Choose Optimism

#65

Post by boxed »

ARandomerDude wrote: post #33

> For most of history, people thought: “The world is bad and, usually, it’s getting worse.” In other words, no longer did humans see themselves as mere pawns for the gods. What? Citation needed. A negative view of individual sin is certainly part of the Christian worldview, but gods are not, nor is an overall negative outlook. The whole point is that God loves his people enough to save them, the Church will expand, a…

> The whole point is that God loves his people enough to save them, the Church will expand, and Christ will return in glory.

ish. It also promises that not even death is an escape, but that God will raise all the dead and judge an enormous majority to be literally thrown into a valley of fire.

Reading the Bible I see more of a threat, than a promise.

Re: I Choose Optimism

#66

Post by Karrot_Kream »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #23
narcraft wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there hypothetically was a magical source of near infinite renewable energy that could be harnessed without negative side effects, would you be ok with 2600+ sqft homes and air conditioning? I sometimes get the impression that sustainability advocates/environmentalists are more anti-technolgy or anti-human than they are pro-nature and saying things like "there is no amount of renewable energy that will make [enjoy…

Air conditioning wasn't really a need in most places historically. Vernacular architecture relied heavily on passive solar design as the default. This uses less energy and also provides superior human comfort.

It's true, but our life expectancy when air conditioning wasn't used was also a lot lower, and life was very difficult outside a small band of areas with good climates (usually cold climates because until the invention of air conditioning, it was much easier for humans to heat spaces than cool and dehumidify them.) And many people in very humid parts of the world had their lives immensely improved thanks to the aircon. Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of modern Singapore, credits [1] the aircon as a core reason for development to even exist in the tropics.

American homes are built cheaply (and needlessly sprawly but that's another story) without any heed to ventilation because the US government has put every policy in place possible to make sure energy prices remain low which has removed any market incentive to decrease energy usage, partially because fossil fuel companies spend lots of money lobbying the government. But strategic use of AC in a properly ventilated home is absolutely life-changing.

[1]: https://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8278085/singapore-lee-kuan-yew...

Re: I Choose Optimism

#67

Post by Barrin92 »

>It was optimism that made science take off.

No, the title should be "optimism chose me". Articles like this are the product of scientific progress. People don't have ideas, ideas have people. Science took itself off once it got started. (in tandem with capital).

It's funny that 'rational optimism', Enlightenment obsessed people stress science and secularism so much. They may not notice it but the framework they're in is fundamentally religious and idealistic, assuming they can move the world in directions they want by thinking the right thoughts.

"Appreciation and its close cousin, gratitude, are something we need a lot more of these days. But our gratitude is not for heaven-sent good fortune. It’s for the innumerable positive changes and advancements forged by science,"

The author is even somewhat self aware of the fact that this sounds suspiciously like worship, but somehow not completely.

Re: I Choose Optimism

#68

Post by systemvoltage »

throwanapple wrote: post #62
systemvoltage wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Media doesn't report good things that happen in the environment. From 2013-2019, they hammered constantly on how the Great Barrier Reef was dying. But, not a peep when they found that it is healthiest its ever been in recent history: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/parts-australia... No wonder the trust in media has fallen to the lowest. Reuters/AP are informative as a root source, but I have stopped tru…

Regarding the Great Barrier Reef, it's not as simple as you're saying: https://theconversation.com/record-coral-cover-doesnt-necess...

Maybe, why is this source trustworthy, I have no idea. There are probably many examples of improvement in the environment that goes unreported.

I used to trust climate science. That trust is being eroded for me. Just the other day, someone reported that kids are gaining weight due to climate change. The reason? They can’t go out and play when it’s 2 deg C hotter. Come on.

I despise climate catastrophization by the media.

Re: I Choose Optimism

#69

Post by [deleted] »

boxed wrote: post #64
maxbendick wrote: post #61

In analyzing political pieces (especially one so concerned with The Enlightenment), it's important to go deeper than content. What moved someone to put so much effort into this thought specifically? Nietzsche, critic of enlightenment, would ask: "which kind of will-to-power is expressed here?" Steven Pinker is popular among accomplished people, and there's no conspiracy about this: rational optimism just gets that cr…

This comment is a text book case of projection. Everything written above is 100% true of the comment itself. Critical but without substance. Looks down their nose but not realizing they are lying on their back and actually lookup UP. The original article and Pinker are quite clear: there are HUGE problems to be solved. Theirs is not a philosophy of complacency, but of hard work. REAL hard work that can actually SUCCE…

[deleted]

Re: I Choose Optimism

#70

Post by Animats »

Encouraging trends:

- Energy is getting fixed. Simply because wind and solar are cheap, and electric vehicles work well. There will be lots of kicking and screaming during the transition, but 20 years out, it won't be a problem.

- We seem to be past peak crazyness in major national leaders. Donald Trump is out. Boris Johnson is out. Benjamin Netanyahu is out. Putin remains a problem.

- Vaccine technology has made huge strides in recent years. Omicron vaccine ships in October. Broad-spectrum vaccines for most of the flu/coronavirus family are in test. We have a monkeypox vaccine already. Cranking out a designed vaccine for a new threat is now routine. Even an AIDS vaccine, which is really hard, now looks possible.

- The supply chain disruptions of the last few years have led to major investments in new manufacturing capacity all over the world. From wafer fabs to fertilizer factories, plants are going up. Having multiple sources is now important again. It takes a while for this to have an effect, after which prices go down.

- The population bomb fizzled out. World population is leveling off. All the major developed countries are now below replacement rate.

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