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John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

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Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. Who is we exactly? As someone working in AI research I know no one that would agree with this statement, so im quite puzzled by that statement.

> As someone working in AI research Being in the tail end of my PhD, I want to second this sentiment. I'm not even bullish on AGI (more specifically HLI) in 50 years. Scale will only take you so far and we have to move past frequentism. Hell, causality research still isn't that popular but is quite important for intelligence. I think people (especially tech enthusiasts) are getting caught in the gullibility gap.

> I think people (especially tech enthusiasts) are getting caught in the gullibility gap.

I think it's that coupled with inserting their own often fanciful projections to fill the void and gaps between the lack of understanding how the mechanics works. Here is a good example of influencers laboring under this narrative [0] and a glimpse as to why it's so effective and pervasive.

I'm conflicted, because I think this is precisely what keeps many Corps and VCs throwing money into this tech thinking it's just right around the corner, as, I'm also studying AI and ML, but I also realize how implausible AGI is in my lifetime given where we are and how narrow parameters these algos function in to yield some degree of accuracy and more specifically how many errors there are to do so as it's just part of the process--learning how gradient descent works was pretty eye opening.

The Marketing has made many people not just fall into a gullibility gap as they make it seem like some sort of black magic, when it's really just statistics fed with immense amounts of specific data, but influncers make it seem like it's capable of ending the World (Elon) when in reality people should be more worried about big tech's capability at aggregating data points from info people willfully post online to exclude you or cluster you into a certain group because of your use of free apps and selling it the highest bidder which are tied to your real ID. Or the algos with weights (biases) that are used and bundled into outsourced/automated HR solutions.

0: https://youtu.be/jdIyNMkusLE?t=1268

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of, but the key difference between AGI and nuclear weapons is that we can control our nuclear weapons. The current state of AI safety is nowhere near the point where controlling an AGI is possible. More disturbingly, to me it seems likely that it will be easier to create an AGI than to discover how to control it safely.

>> The current state of AI safety is nowhere near the point where controlling an AGI is possible. I just don't understand this logic though. Just.....switch it off. Unlike humans, computers have an extremely easy way to disable - just pull the plug. Even if your AGI is self-replicating, somehow(and you also somehow don't realize this long before it gets to that point) just....pull the plug. Even Carmack says this isn…

> I don't understand how you can look at the current or even predicted state of the technology that we have and say "we are nowhere near the point where controlling an AGI is possible". Like....just pull the plug.

https://www.deepmind.com/blog/specification-gaming-the-flip-...

https://vkrakovna.wordpress.com/2018/04/02/specification-gam...

https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.03453 (The Surprising Creativity of Digital Evolution)

We literally don't know how to stop effective optimizing processes, deployed in non-handcrafted environments, from discovering solutions and workarounds that satisfy the letter of our instructions but not the spirit. Even for "dumb" systems, we have to rely on noticing, then post-hoc disincentivizing, unwanted behaviors, because we don't know how to robustly specify objectives.

When you train a system to, for example, "stop saying racist stuff", without actually understanding what you're doing, all you get is a system that "stops saying racist stuff" when measured by the specific standard you've deployed.

Ask any security professional how seriously people take securing a system, let alone how ineffective they are at it. Now consider the same situation but worse because almost no one takes AI safety seriously.

If you nod solemnly at the words "safety" and "reliability" but don't think anything "really bad" can happen, you will be satisfied with a solution that "works on your machine". If you aren't deeply motivated to build a safe system from the start because you can always correct things late, you are not building a safe system.

It will be possible to produce economically viable autonomous agents without robustly specified objectives.

But hey, surely a smart enough system won't even need a robustly specified objective because it knows what we mean and will always want it just as much.

Surely dangerous behavior like "empowerment" isn't an instrumental goal that effective systems will simply rediscover.

Surely the economic incentives of automation won't encourage just training bad behavior out of sight and out of mind.

Surely in the face of overwhelming profit, corporations won't ignore warning signs of recurring dangerous behavior.

Surely the only people capable of building an AGI will always be those guaranteed to prioritize alignment rather than the appearance of it.

Surely you and every single person will be taking AI safety seriously, constantly watching out for strange behavior.

Surely pulling the plug is easy, whether AI runs on millions of unsecured unmonitored devices or across hundreds of money printing server farms.

Surely an AGI can only be dangerous if it explicitly decides to fool humans rather than earnestly pursuing underspecified objectives.

Surely it's easy to build an epistemically humble AGI because epistemic humility is natural or easy enough to specify.

Surely humanity can afford to delay figuring out how best to safely handle something so potentially impactful, because we always handle these things in time.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#583
post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sends you a text from your spouse's phone number that an emergency has happened and you need to go to xyz location right now. Someone else is a gun owner and they get a similar text, but their spouse is being held captive and are sent to the same location with a description of you as the kidnapper. Scale this as desired. Use your imagination!

Again, what part of this couldn't an evil human group already do today? What in this plan requires an AGI for it to be a scary scenario? Of course if you do it to everyone, total gridlock ensues and nobody gets to the place where they would be killed. If you only do it to a few, maybe there will be a handful of killings before everyone learns not to trust a text ever again. As an aside, I agree living in a country wh…

Scale! Do this to two people, no problem you can get a team of folks to dig through their social media, come up with a plan, execute. Might take a day to get a good crisis cooked up.

An AI might be able to run this attack against the entire planet, all at once.

Try to think like a not-human, and give yourself the capacity of near-infinite scale. What could you do? Human systems are hilariously easy to disrupt and you don't need nukes to make that happen.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#584
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the off chance that you're serious: Even if you can pull the plug before it is too late, less moral people like Meta Mark will not unplug theirs. And as soon as it has access to the internet, it can copy itself. Good luck pulling the plug of the internet.

I'm 100% serious. I literally don't understand your concern at all. >>And as soon as it has access to the internet, it can copy itself. So can viruses, including ones that can "intelligently" modify themselves to avoid detection, and yet this isn't a major problem. How is this any differenent? >>Good luck pulling the plug of the internet. I could reach down and pull my ethernet cable out but it would make posting thi…

> So can viruses, including ones that can "intelligently" modify themselves to avoid detection, and yet this isn't a major problem. How is this any different?

I now regret spending half an hour writing a response to your earlier comment.

You can't tell why a mass deployment of motivated autonomous "NSO-9000s" might be more dangerous than a virus that just changes its signature to fool a executable scanner? I don't believe you.

If you honestly believe that an "intelligent" (as adaptive as a slime mold) virus is basically as dangerous as a maliciously deployed AGI then there is literally nothing an AGI could do that would make you consider safety is important during the endeavor of building one.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#585
post #92
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you liked that you'll love the Lex Fridman interview.

I watched some clips from the interview, good stuff. I personally don’t like Lex’s interviewing style though, so I couldn’t watch the whole thing.

Glad I'm not the only one. I'm 90 minutes in and finding some of Lex's questions really bad. Especially "What is the best programming language?", but I'm also astonished that Lex doesn't seem to know what an x86 is, hasn't really heard of Pascal, and was incredulous that anyone could write a game in assembly language (but as Carmack points out, everyone in the 80s was writing games in assembly, BASIC just wasn't fast enough).

Maybe Lex was trying to dumb things down for a non-technical (or younger?) viewer, but it doesn't come across that way and just interrupts Carmack's flow. Carmack is excellent though.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

watch the film

Sorry, I just wasted ten minutes watching a YouTube video that someone else in this thread asserted was going to explain everything. Said video was entirely tangential to the point in question - why can't we just tell the AGI to sod off with it's wishes and goals. At the end of the day it is all just bits going through wires, which we are perfectly capable of disconnecting. Now I'm not going to spend a couple of hour…

> Yeah, let's not do that, I agree fully on this point. If we are concerned a thing will be evil and/or coercive, let's not give it weapons or other means by which to enact coercion.

The problem is that we can't know if the AGI is behaving maliciously or not far into the future, because it has potantial to be far more intelligent than us.

As for coercion, let's think of it as a manipulation. If a super intelligent agent has malicious goals, it can be very manipulative and be subtle in the process as to not spook humans. Companionship of intelligence with evilness is scary.

Of course we can (if we won't have distributed machines running AGI, because things like this may complicate things) "unplug" it. But the real problem arises from the fact that us humans can be easily manipulated. That's how I look at the problem.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#587
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a different person were doing it, I think that'd be fair, but Carmack has a track record of quality engineering and quality product. I don't think you can blame Quest on him given the way he chose to exit.

whether or not something is or is not an inconsequential gimmick doesn't have much to do with quality engineering.

Nothing could be further from the truth, and I would even say your opinion can come across as offensive, and easily said by someone who spends a lot of time on HN instead of building things.

A poorly-engineered system has a longer iteration cycle and shorter technical shelf life. Being able to rapidly address customer feedback IS the gold standard of a good product. Yeesh.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#588
That is great news. My friend Ben Goertzel has been working in AGI for decades but I haven’t yet seen anything tangible. I do like the ideas of hybrid neuro-symbolic approaches.

I really enjoyed John Carmack’s and Lex Firdman’s 5 hour talk/interview.

Anyway, I like to efforts for human values preserving AGI. But, it will be a long time before we see it. I am 71 and I hope that I live to see it, outlying out of intellectual curiosity.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> capable of constructing a slightly better version of itself With just self-improvement I think you hit diminishing returns, rather than an exponential explosion. Say on the first pass it cleans up a bunch of low-hanging inefficiencies and improves itself 30%. Then on the second pass it has slightly more capacity to think with, but it also already did everything that was possible with the first 100% capacity - maybe…

I'm not just imagining self-improvement in the sense, that it optimizes its design to become more efficient or powerful by a few percent. A system, that can 'think out of the box' may come up with some disruptive new ideas and designs. Just a thought: Isn't lacking intellectual capacity, what keeps us from understanding, how the human brain actually works? Maybe an AGI will eventually understand it and will construct…

I think diminishing returns applies regardless of whether it's improving itself through optimization or breakthrough new ideas. There's only so much firepower you can squeeze out if everything else were to remain stagnant.

Like if all modern breakthroughs and disruptive new ideas in machine learning were sent back to the 70s, I don't think it'd make a huge difference when they'd still be severely hamstrung by hardware capabilities.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

whether or not something is or is not an inconsequential gimmick doesn't have much to do with quality engineering.

Nothing could be further from the truth, and I would even say your opinion can come across as offensive, and easily said by someone who spends a lot of time on HN instead of building things. A poorly-engineered system has a longer iteration cycle and shorter technical shelf life. Being able to rapidly address customer feedback IS the gold standard of a good product. Yeesh.

> easily said by someone who spends a lot of time on HN instead of building things.

Heh. My "life's work": https://ardour.org ... My "previous life's work": http://amazon.com/

Being an inconsequential gimmick isn't about implementation, it's about semantics, relevance and utility. Only the last of these is really impacted at all by engineering, and even then, the engineering component doesn't matter if the thing just isn't useful.

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