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John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

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Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#381

Does anyone else subscribe to the idea that AGI is impossible/unlikely without 'embodied cognition', i.e. we cannot create a human-like 'intelligence' unless it has a similar embodiment to us, able to move around a physical environment with it's own limbs, sense of touch, sight, etc. ? Any arguments against the necessity of this? I feel like any AGI developed in silico without freedom of movement will be fundamentall…

The term AGI means "artificial general intelligence", it does not mean human-like intelligence. So it being incomprehensible to us does not preclude it from being an AGI.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#382

Does anyone else subscribe to the idea that AGI is impossible/unlikely without 'embodied cognition', i.e. we cannot create a human-like 'intelligence' unless it has a similar embodiment to us, able to move around a physical environment with it's own limbs, sense of touch, sight, etc. ? Any arguments against the necessity of this? I feel like any AGI developed in silico without freedom of movement will be fundamentall…

I do expect it if we want AGI to have appropriate emotions. We know emotions are sometimes created by cognition, and often created by chemical processes. This will have to be incorporated into the model somehow if we want to have human-like intelligence.

However, AGI doesn't need embodiment in order to be useful. In fact, it might be detrimental. I believe AGI will happen much sooner than embodied AGI.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#383
post #172

I don’t understand why you would want AGI. Even ignoring Terminator-esque worst case scenarios, AGI means humans are no longer the smartest entities on the planet. The idea that we can control something like that is laughable.

the climate crisis might kill us all off if not some deus ex machina (i.e. AGI) comes up with some good solutions fast.

I'd wager we already have some good solutions, except they "cost too much" or would require "too much political capital"

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#384
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not. My evidence? OpenWorm [1]. OpenWorm is an effort to model the behaviour of a worm that has 302 mapped neurons. 302. Efforts so far have fallen way short of the mark. How many neurons does a human brain have? 86 billion (according to Google). I've seen other estimates that the computational power of the brain is roughly estimated as 10^15 operations per second. I suspect that's on the low end. We can't even r…

Biology is not necessarily the only path to intelligence. Modern ML has diverged very far from biomimetic approaches at this point. The brain does have more "parameters" than ML models but this applies just as much to humans as it does to animals that we don't consider particularly intelligent.

> Biology is not necessarily the only path to intelligence.

True.

> Modern ML has diverged very far from biomimetic approaches at this point.

I agree but my take on this is different: it just lays bare how simplistic modern "ML" is. And I put "ML" in quotations because most "ML" is really just statistics.

If you accept the premise that ML is a highly simplified version of the one model of sentience we have that works (and you might disagree with that) then that just puts us even further from AGI. Why? The information/entropy in the system.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#385
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if Carmack's in I'm in. Has he ever been drastically wrong?

The jury is still out on VR and Meta but it hardly seems promising.

Fair point, though I think VR is going to be solid for games once hardware properly catches up in a decade or so.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. Who is we exactly? As someone working in AI research I know no one that would agree with this statement, so im quite puzzled by that statement.

I work in AI and would roughly agree with it to first order. For me the key breakthrough has been seeing how large transformers trained with big datasets have shown incredible performance in completely different data modalities (text, image, and probably soon others too). This was absolutely not expected by most researchers 5 years ago.

The problem here is that transformers aren't always the best tool. They are powerful because they can capture large receptive fields but ConvNext even shows that a convolution can still out perform Transformers on some tasks. There's plenty of modern CNNs that have both small and large receptive fields that perform better than transformers. But of course there is no one size fits all architecture and it is fairly naive to think so. I think what was more surprising with transformers is that you could scale them well and perform complex tasks with them alone.

But I think a big part you're ignoring here is how training has changed in the last 5 years. You look back at something like VGG where we go depthwise with CNNs vs something like Swin and there's a ton more complexity in the latter (and difficulties in reproduction of results likely due to this). There's vastly more uses of data augmentation, different types of normalization (see ConvNext), better learning rate schedules, and massive compute allows for a much better hyper-parameter search (I do also want to note that there are problems in this area as many are HP searching over the test set and not a validation or training set).

Yeah, the field has come a long way and I fully expect it to continue to grow like crazy but AGI/HLI is a vastly more complex problem that we have a lot of evidence that the current methods won't get us there.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#387

Does anyone else subscribe to the idea that AGI is impossible/unlikely without 'embodied cognition', i.e. we cannot create a human-like 'intelligence' unless it has a similar embodiment to us, able to move around a physical environment with it's own limbs, sense of touch, sight, etc. ? Any arguments against the necessity of this? I feel like any AGI developed in silico without freedom of movement will be fundamentall…

I don't think it is necessary - though all forms of intelligence we're aware of have bodies, that's just a fact about the hardware we run on. It seems plausible to me that we could create forms of intelligence that only run on a computer and have no bodies. I agree that we might find it difficult to recognize them as intelligent though because we're so conditioned to thinking of intelligence as embodied. An interesti…

not necessarily handicapped but certainly different. i did an artwork about the inherent problems with an intelligence that was not aware about how other entities would perceive it https://jpreston.xyz/i-can-feel.html

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#389

I'm very optimistic for near-term AGI (10 years or less). Even just a few years ago most in the field would have said that it's an "unknown unknown", we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. The issue is that unlike supervised training y…

Even Yann LeCun, who arguably knows a lot about RL agents, isn't proposing just "an RL agent that uses a large transformer" but something more multi-part [1]. Current approaches are getting better but I don't think that's the same as approaching AGI. [1] https://venturebeat.com/business/yann-lecuns-vision-for-crea...

Yann LeCun's paper isn't really a traditional ML paper, it discusses ideas at a high level but doesn't mention anything about implementation. If you were to try to create an RL agent based on his ideas, with the perception encoder and the perception-action loop etc, you would probably still use a large transformer to do it.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. Who is we exactly? As someone working in AI research I know no one that would agree with this statement, so im quite puzzled by that statement.

> As someone working in AI research Being in the tail end of my PhD, I want to second this sentiment. I'm not even bullish on AGI (more specifically HLI) in 50 years. Scale will only take you so far and we have to move past frequentism. Hell, causality research still isn't that popular but is quite important for intelligence. I think people (especially tech enthusiasts) are getting caught in the gullibility gap.

I know it maybe too much to ask but as a noob to this field I’d love to hear more about why AGI is not feasible even in 50 years.
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