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John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

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Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#171

I'm very optimistic for near-term AGI (10 years or less). Even just a few years ago most in the field would have said that it's an "unknown unknown", we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. The issue is that unlike supervised training y…

> Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. Any resources on that? I have a feeling that RL might play a big role in the first AGI, too, but why transformers in particular?

See: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.06175

A Generalist Agent

Inspired by progress in large-scale language modeling, we apply a similar approach towards building a single generalist agent beyond the realm of text outputs. The agent, which we refer to as Gato, works as a multi-modal, multi-task, multi-embodiment generalist policy. The same network with the same weights can play Atari, caption images, chat, stack blocks with a real robot arm and much more, deciding based on its context whether to output text, joint torques, button presses, or other tokens. In this report we describe the model and the data, and document the current capabilities of Gato.

Gato is a 1 to 2 billion parameters model due to latency considerations in real time physical robots usage. So for today standards of 500 billion parameters dense models Gato is tiny. Additionally Gato is trained on data produced by other RL agents. It did not do the exploration fully itself.

Demis Hassabis say that DeepMind is currently working on Gato v2.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#172

I don’t understand why you would want AGI. Even ignoring Terminator-esque worst case scenarios, AGI means humans are no longer the smartest entities on the planet. The idea that we can control something like that is laughable.

the climate crisis might kill us all off if not some deus ex machina (i.e. AGI) comes up with some good solutions fast.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#173
post #62
post #13

Carmack gave his opinions about AGI on a recent Lex Fridman interview. He has some good ideas.

I remember him saying we don't have "line of sight" to AGI, and there could just be "6 or so" breakthrough ideas needed to get there. And he said he was over 50% on us seeing "signs of life" by 2030. Something like being able to "boot up a bunch of remote Zoom workers" for your company. The "6 or so" breakthroughs sounds about right to me. But I don't really see the reason for being optimistic about 2030. It could ju…

There is an inverse relationship between the age of a futurist and the amount of time they think it will take for their predictions to become true.

In other words, people making these sort of predictions about the future are biased towards believing they'll be alive to benefit from it.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#174
post #3

> This is explicitly a focusing effort for me. I could write a $20M check myself, but knowing that other people's money is on the line engenders a greater sense of discipline and determination. Dude doesn't even need the money...

When it isn't about the money, it is usually the credibility and influence that VCs can provide. Looking at the list of investors, of course Carmack would want to have them attached to the project, if for no other reason than to make raising the next $100M a cakewalk.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#175

Interesting to see how he's progressed with this. When he first announced he was getting into AI it sounded almost like a semi retirement thing: something that interested him that he could do for fun and solo, without the expectation that it would go anywhere. But now he seems truly serious about it. Wonder if he's started hiring yet.

He mentioned, in his Lex Friedman interview, that accepting investor money was a way to keep himself serious and motivated. He feels an obligation to those putting their money in.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Artificial General Intelligence != sentient being

What, in your view, is the difference?

An AGI is something you give tasks to and it can complete them, for some collection of tasks that would be non-trivial for a human to figure out how to do. It's unclear at this point whether you could engineer an AGI, and even more unclear whether the AGI, by its nature, would be "sentient" (AKA, self-aware, conscious, having agency). Many of us believe that sentience is an emergent property of intelligence but is not a necessity- and it's unclear whether sentience truly means that we humans are self-aware, conscious and have agency.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#177

I'm very optimistic for near-term AGI (10 years or less). Even just a few years ago most in the field would have said that it's an "unknown unknown", we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. The issue is that unlike supervised training y…

> Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. Any resources on that? I have a feeling that RL might play a big role in the first AGI, too, but why transformers in particular?

Everything Deepmind published at this year's ICML would be a good start.

Transformers (or rather the QKV attention mechanism) has taken over ML research at this point, it just scales and works in places it really shouldn't. Eg. you'd think convnets would make more sense for vision because of its translation invariance, but ViT works better even without this inductive bias.

Even in things like diffusion models the attention layers are crucial to making the model work.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#178

I'm very optimistic for near-term AGI (10 years or less). Even just a few years ago most in the field would have said that it's an "unknown unknown", we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. The issue is that unlike supervised training y…

> Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer.

People have thought Deep RL would lead to AGI since practically the beginning of the deep learning revolution, and likely significantly before. It's the most intuitive approach by a longshot (even depicted in movies as agents receiving positive/negative reinforcement from their environment), but that doesn't mean it's the best. RL still faces huge struggles with compute efficiency and it isn't immediately clear that current RL algorithms will neatly scale with data & parameter count.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#179
post #131

I'm very optimistic for near-term AGI (10 years or less). Even just a few years ago most in the field would have said that it's an "unknown unknown", we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict. Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer. The issue is that unlike supervised training y…

We will have something that we ourselves define to be AGI, sure, but then it's easy to hit any goal that way. Is that machine really intelligent? What does that word even mean? Can it think for itself? Is it sentient? Similar to AI, AGI is going to be a new industry buzzword that you can throw at anything and mean nothing.

This keeps coming up, and there's no answer, because unfortunately it appears we are not really sentient, thinking, intelligent minds either. We'll find AGI and complain that it's not good enough until we lower the bar sufficiently as we discover more about our own minds.

Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round

#180
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will have something that we ourselves define to be AGI, sure, but then it's easy to hit any goal that way. Is that machine really intelligent? What does that word even mean? Can it think for itself? Is it sentient? Similar to AI, AGI is going to be a new industry buzzword that you can throw at anything and mean nothing.

From the point when an AGI is capable of constructing a slightly better version of itself and has the urge to do so, everything can happen very fast.

Can it? There aren’t that many overhangs to exploit.
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