Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't imply any task, just a wide variety of tasks. 10 years at most.
Then it's NOT generalized. ANY means ANY.
Can you do any task asked of you, which could be asked of a human being? ANY task.
John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
61–70 of 643 posts
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#62Carmack gave his opinions about AGI on a recent Lex Fridman interview. He has some good ideas.
I remember him saying we don't have "line of sight" to AGI, and there could just be "6 or so" breakthrough ideas needed to get there.
And he said he was over 50% on us seeing "signs of life" by 2030. Something like being able to "boot up a bunch of remote Zoom workers" for your company.
The "6 or so" breakthroughs sounds about right to me. But I don't really see the reason for being optimistic about 2030. It could just as easily be 2050, or 2100, etc.
That timeline sounds more like a Kurzweil-ish argument based on computing power equivalence to a human brain. Not a recognition that we fundamentally still don't know how brains work! (or what intelligence is, etc.)
Also a lot of people even question the idea of AGI. We could live in a future of scary powerful narrow AIs for over a century (and arguably we already are)
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are probably right, but if anyone can make a dent Carmak is the person.
Do game dev skills transfer to AGI? I know he's a smart guy, but I don't think that's a given.
He's not just a game dev, he is one of the most legendary graphics programmers (and just programmers) alive. Similar to how GPUs transferred well from gaming to ML, it seems like much of the math and parallel/efficiency-focused thinking of graphics programing is useful in ML.
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
You have some catching up to do. Consensus is dropping to this lifetime for sure, if not this decade.
what consensus? i think most researchers remain skeptical
Yeah, I don't think there is even any agreement about what criteria a "minimal AGI" would need to meet. If we can't even define what the thing is, saying we'll have it within ten years is pure hubris.
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#65Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#66Interesting to see how he's progressed with this. When he first announced he was getting into AI it sounded almost like a semi retirement thing: something that interested him that he could do for fun and solo, without the expectation that it would go anywhere. But now he seems truly serious about it. Wonder if he's started hiring yet.
I got the same impression, and maybe it still is. You can still raise money for a retirement project if the goal of the money is to hire a staff. VC money isn't solely for young 20-something founders who want to live their job.
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't imply any task, just a wide variety of tasks. 10 years at most.
By definition it has to be any task otherwise it wouldn't be general. What tasks wouldn't an AGI be able to perform and still be an AGI?
Reliably trick a humans into thinking it's a human. That's it.
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not blowing 20 million if it results in meaningful progress in this area. We have something like 2700 billionaires on this planet. This isn’t even a drop in the bucket for someone like that interested in furthering this research. AGI could quite literally shift any job to automation. This is human-experience changing stuff.
> This is human-experience changing stuff. that's one way of putting it it will remove the need for the vast majority of the population, which will end extremely badly
But by the same token, there's no need for billions of humans now. AGI isn't really going to change that except for making work even more superfluous than it already is.
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#69I assume the name is a reference to Commander Keen?
You are a keen observer.
Re: John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has raised a $20M round
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't imply any task, just a wide variety of tasks. 10 years at most.
By definition it has to be any task otherwise it wouldn't be general. What tasks wouldn't an AGI be able to perform and still be an AGI?
It sounds like you may be demanding more from AGI that we do of humans. AGI is a mushy concept, not a hard requirement. "Any task" is definitely not required for a low functioning AGI, just as it's not a requirement for a low functioning human, who still easily fits the definition of an intelligent being.