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For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

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Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#41

It’s striking to me that Hacker News has a significant audience of flat earthers. Don’t look up, right? Let’s be clear, human caused climate change is very real. Rigorous science confirms this and CO2 + methane levels are now driving very visible and catastrophic weather all over the world.

You realise the nuance is in blaming where the methane production is coming from as well as the c02. There's a huge amount of shifting the "who is going to take any responsibility" which has made this pointlessly political and just wastes time and effort. This isn't helped by certain parties "reviewing" scientific data until it's massaged into narratives that they can push. (Again on all sides of whatever political spectrum you want to draw)

Unfortunately few take a step back and realise we need to try to get people to stop pointing fingers and work together, but that doesn't sell news, allow people to feel righteous or give people the ability to say "I told you". But it gets the job done.

It's asif politics is full of the worst of middle managers unfortunately.

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#42
post #28
post #17

Quoted post unavailable.

The newspapers printed those stories in the 1970s, but they didn't reflect general scientific consensus at that time. Or were you thinking of a different decade?

The 50s and 60s were also full of reports on global cooling. Temperatures started dropping from the 1940s by the data they used back then (these days that fall has been edited out).

But there's a deeper problem with the point you're trying to make here. You claim the reports didn't reflect the scientific consensus. Really? Go read those reports. They do claim they were reporting the consensus. To the extent they admitted the existence of uncertainty it was uncertainty of the form, we don't know why temperatures are falling, we don't know how bad it'll get but it'll probably be bad, etc.

So how do you know that reports back then were lying about the existence of a consensus, but today's reports aren't? Who gets to declare a "general scientific consensus" anyway? Can we meet these people and ask how they determined that? What about virology, where they claim there's an absolute consensus that SARS-CoV-2 couldn't have escaped from a lab even though it's obvious it could?

Here's some quotes from articles published in the 60s and 70s [1]

New York Times, 1961: "Scientists agree world is colder. After a week of discussions on the causes of climate change, an assembly of specialists from several continents seems to have reached unanimous agreement on only one point: it is getting colder"

Washington Post, 1970: "Get a good grip on your long johns cold weather haters, the worst may be yet to come. That's the long long range forecast being given out by climatologists".

New York Times, July 1970: "The US and the Soviet Union are mounting large scale investigations to determine why the Arctic climate is becoming more frigid." (this one also discusses geo-engineering with the goal of melting the poles)

Letter to the US President, 1972: "we feel obliged to inform you of the results of the recent scientific conference held here recently ... a global deterioration of climate by an order of magnitude larger than any hitherto experienced by mankind is a very real possibility and indeed may be due very soon. The cooling has a natural cause"

The Post-Crescent, 1973: "'Clearly we are living in an unusual time and cannot, based on past evidence, expect the present warm age to last much longer' [said] Imbrie, [who] is a part of CLIMPA, a new three institution climate research team (Brown, Columbia and Oregon State Universities) engaged in a global study of climactic change under the sponsorship of NSF-IDOE".

etc. There are more examples at the link.

https://realclimatescience.com/1970s-global-cooling-scare/

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#43
post #33

It was very eye opening to see how many groups and individuals who "just want to have a debate" on the reality of climate change are funded by fossil fuel companies[1][2][3][4]. We are being lied to, and it's working. Just see the first few comments in reply to this article. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/30/us-oil-d... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-skeptic-idUST... [3] http…

If that's important to you, then you should also be aware that many of the greens and various anti-nuke groups from the 1980s and onwards were funded by the Soviets. Some of these details can be found in books like "The Spy and the Traitor: The Greatest Espionage Story of the Cold War".

Come on.. lol.

References please.

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#44
post #23

Sadly the fact that it HAS been written about for so long just fuels the fire (no pun intended) for the sceptics. Something I often hear when trying to talk to people who refuse to believe the impact we have: "See these domsday prophets have been ranting about this for over a century and we're still here enjoying life!"

The same with "we only have 10 years left". After 30 years this doesn't carry much weight.

This just makes the problem worse because little remember this 30 years later and think you're a liar or idiot because you pushed exaggerated claims.

In the 80s in the UK acid rain was hyped up, in the 90s it was 20 years of oil reserves in the education system. Both now have generated adults distrusting education because they're not an academic and they just remember what a fool told them at face value without nuance.

One of the biggest recently being reports that we will have millions dead unless X which doesn't match reality which is just going to create more anti intellectual fear

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#45

It was very eye opening to see how many groups and individuals who "just want to have a debate" on the reality of climate change are funded by fossil fuel companies[1][2][3][4]. We are being lied to, and it's working. Just see the first few comments in reply to this article. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/30/us-oil-d... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-skeptic-idUST... [3] http…

Your first link claims Koch Industries is "a little-known, privately owned US oil company". That's the sort of lie you've got to expect from the Guardian. Quoting Wikipedia: "Koch Industries, Inc. (/ˈkoʊk/) is an American privately held multinational conglomerate corporation based in Wichita, Kansas and is the second-largest privately held company in the United States, after Cargill.[2] Its subsidiaries are involved…

I think you're missing the forest for the trees. When you look at the people who actually study this stuff for a living there is very little disagreement about the nature of the problem and the direction things are headed. Most of the controversy and the oft-regurgitated talking points about "solar cycles", "ice age", "but everyone thought it was global cooling in the 70s", etc seem to originate from the same few sources.

I agree that journalists suck and are easily manipulated. But the overwhelming scientific evidence seems to point in one direction and it's not good.

It's ok to disagree on policy, but the global warming "skeptic" game plan has been to disagree on reality.

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#46
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, for sure. A sudden ice age would definitely ruin global civilization. But that's not the issue, and the opposite of an ice age, a rapid period of warming with huge disruptions to ecosystems, is not good either. It's almost like huge disruptions to ecosystems is the problem and independent from the red team/blue team political polarization culture-war horseshit.

No it is not much about the rate of disruption, the end state we are aiming at will be painful and not much would adapt even if it would be 1000 years?! That it happens so quickly within one generation and is caused by us is icing on top.. It seems we had 5 mass extinction events on earth so far, one caused by an asteroid, and the 4 others by climate change. Sure, something will survive, regrow or be newly created..…

> No it is not much about the rate of disruption

I believe it is. The rate at which iso-climate lines are moving north is faster than a lot of species can move. Most fauna could be ok by that criteria alone, but most flora can't move so rapidly (a lot of tree species can only move 10m/10years).

And when the flora goes, a lot fauna does too.

Sure, the human species will survive. It certainly did with a few million of individuals for most of the time. But I believe we're already in the 6th mass extinction event, perhaps the biggest so far.

We're going to get a lesson from nature. The only question is how tough will it be. I believe large famines, wars, and a partial civilization collapse are coming.

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#47
post #41

It’s striking to me that Hacker News has a significant audience of flat earthers. Don’t look up, right? Let’s be clear, human caused climate change is very real. Rigorous science confirms this and CO2 + methane levels are now driving very visible and catastrophic weather all over the world.

You realise the nuance is in blaming where the methane production is coming from as well as the c02. There's a huge amount of shifting the "who is going to take any responsibility" which has made this pointlessly political and just wastes time and effort. This isn't helped by certain parties "reviewing" scientific data until it's massaged into narratives that they can push. (Again on all sides of whatever political s…

I wonder what it is that people actually want? That's the part I can never figure out, and they never seem to be able to articulate, at least truthfully.

Like, I'm fine to say that I'd be OK to see this planet burned to the ground once I've had my fun with it. I mean, I feel a bit sorry for the humans who might come after, but that's a problem I'm not going to contribute to, so whatever. This seems to be the mainstream opinion as well, based on our current trajectory and actions, but it's gauche to say it plainly and so we create rationalizations to see ourselves as better people.

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#48

"Arrhenius estimated doubling CO₂ would produce a world 5℃ hotter. This, thankfully, is higher than modern calculations but not too far off, considering he wasn’t using a sophisticated computer model!" This is talking about the variable called "equilibrium climate sensitivity". Climate sensitivity is a key question in any fact-based discussion of climate change. There are three problems with this statement: 1. ECS ca…

Could you define how long "for long periods" is and who those Scientists were?

It is really funny how the "but they told us its cooling" thing is actually only widely known and talked in the English speaking parts of the world (mainly the US). Everywhere else in the world nobody even knows about this argument. There might be a reason for that.

Also love you linking to a Newsweek article instead of some relevant papers that detail this cooling trend and how it was predicted. I mean its not a meme at all how popular Media misunderstands science and only reports on the most surprising aspects to get people to buy their publications.

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#49
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same with "we only have 10 years left". After 30 years this doesn't carry much weight.

This just makes the problem worse because little remember this 30 years later and think you're a liar or idiot because you pushed exaggerated claims. In the 80s in the UK acid rain was hyped up, in the 90s it was 20 years of oil reserves in the education system. Both now have generated adults distrusting education because they're not an academic and they just remember what a fool told them at face value without nuanc…

Acid rain was hyped up because it was a real problem and was fixed by tighter emissions standards[1]. Same with the ozone layer hole, an issue I heard a lot about as a kid, which was fixed by regulating CFCs[2]. These are examples of successfully tackling an issue and largely solving it, not "panicking over nothing".

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_rain

> Overall, the program's cap and trade program has been successful in achieving its goals. Since the 1990s, SO2 emissions have dropped 40%, and according to the Pacific Research Institute, acid rain levels have dropped 65% since 1976.[43][44] Conventional regulation was used in the European Union, which saw a decrease of over 70% in SO2 emissions during the same time period.[45]

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

Re: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news

#50
I'm already trying to imagine how society will adapt with climate change. I see mostly rich people shielding themselves from the hot climate in developed countries and feeding themselves.

Meanwhile, other countries are going to be left to die or left to generalized social unrest, drought and hunger. Massive migrations with a massive security apparatus. I'm guessing human population will fall below two billion or less before 2080 or before, until we can build a green industry while protecting people from this new climate.

I don't think it will be a "collapse" like it's often talked about by the collapse movement, but it will be a slow disaster, which will be much more "tolerable" and avoid dangerous, unstable crises or large conflicts. Intelligence agencies are going to carefully plan all of this.

Hawks are going to say "it won't be so bad" and that "only the fittest shall survive". It won't be very civilized, but individualism will go away and be replaced by communities who focus on survival at the expense of outgroups. It will probably look like dystopian movies, minus the glory, the heroes and the adventure.

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