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Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#561
post #430
post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't dispersing a core business, that the global economy relies on, to other countries a bad move for Taiwan? If advanced micro chips are made in another country doesn't that mean China might be more likely to use a forceful invasion and other countries can say "Yes, this is terrible - but at least we still have our chips!"

Taiwan doesn't own TSMC. They don't tell TSMC how to do business any more than the US government dictates to Intel. I'm sure it wields influence, of course. The US government offers incentives for companies to build foundries in the US, and there's a large pool of skilled workers in the industry in that area. Also Taiwan is a small country, so it's quite possible TSMC needs to expand internationally in order to be ab…

Sure, but the US gov't provided no seed money or had any role otherwise in founding of Intel, unlike TSMC. Up until recently the US chips companies were pretty much on their own without much special pampering. TSMC has little or no desire to expand beyond their tiny island -- not only b/c of the gov't investment's national stake in TSMC, but also TSMC's business model doesn't work -- and certainly can't maintain its fat profit marign -- without gov't largess and econ protection.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the process you lose the ability to have any of these core competencies yourself. Nonsense. The US could obtain the core competencies themselves and indeed will as globalization winds down. People will never stop coming to the US for opportunity.

> People will never stop coming to the US for opportunity. Is true _as long as the US continues to understand this_ and doesn't change its stance on immigration and business and open markets. The US will win as long as it's the country where the best of this world are invited and able to come and do their best work. On the other hand, I don't see China having any chance at beating the US on that front anytime soon. M…

> beating the US on that front anytime soon

Current trends suggest otherwise, see PRC rapidly catching up and leading R&D and innovation indexes controlled by citations or quality in the last few years.

> quantities are incomparable

If anything US is at an substantial quantity disadvantage and slight to modest quality advantage.

While US does absorb _some_ of the best global talent, those are also subsect of best with resources to go to US, and capped by immigration to around 700k, not all whom are relevant STEM talent for high tech industrial competition. Meanwhile rate of PRC domestic STEM talent generation is about 4-5x (rough estimate generously assuming all US immigration is STEM) of US domestic highereducation + immigration is pulling talent even accounting for outbound PRC brain drain. Yes, US has a bigger pool to draw from but their bucket is also smaller. US was projected to have like 3+ million STEM job gap in coming years, while PRC is generating so much talent that there's record unemploment. Which is obviously not good but puts the numbers in perspective - PRC is producing roughly as much STEM grads as all OECD nations combined, while geopolitical tensions is helping PRC retain more of that talent.

Other considerations is that recent trend of PRC R&D and tech catchup is result of highered reforms set decades ago. PRC is still in process of building talent and institution base compared to relative mature western R&D system. IMO trends last few years show it's entirely possible for PRC to be competitive or overtake US in strategic high tech/talent industries in medium/long term, if not the entire US aligned block who are small subsect of OECD countries. But they I think state of geoeconomics will limit their market access and each will end up leading different blocs.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did it eradicated poverty in Burundi? South Sudan? Malawi? Pakistan? I can cherry pick examples too; means nothing, and what about the tankman? Was he lifted out of poverty? Or all the other victims of the goverment? Also China capitalism includes things like stealing tech secrets from the companies that manufacture there[0], is that part of the "ideal capitalism" you advocate for? [0] https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/1…

>Also China capitalism includes things like stealing tech secrets from the companies that manufacture there[0], is that part of the "ideal capitalism" you advocate for? Sure, China has copied/stole tech from the West, just as the West has copied tech from China long ago. It happens when an economy is playing catchup. But in my humble opinion, the idea that China could only steal western tech is rooted in racism and a…

Good old "if you critize a government it means you are racist against people in that country". No, that's not how it works, government positions -specially at autocracies- attract a rare kind of people, extremly greedy and ruthless, not representative of the rest.

Also if the government orders you to steal secrets from your clients to follow such orders it's just basic survival instinct.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#565
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were never going to build Apple products there though. That was for LCD television components.

I don't think the point they were making was about Apple products being built there, but that Foxconn continues to put their attention elsewhere with other projects.

Sort of both points. They have a plant built and they have yet to put it to use. All the while, they are opening new factories elsewhere.

From TFA: >Foxconn also reportedly considered using the site to make electric vehicles and other electronics, but nothing has come of any of its announcements.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#566
post #5

I suppose this means Wisconsin is SOL. https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/25/foxconn_wisconsin_fac...

They were never going to build Apple products there though. That was for LCD television components.

And now they're not making LCDs. Or, anything else there. While building new facilities where the labor is cheap, despite the PR grandstanding a few years back.

Sounds to me like WI is SOL.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will never stop coming to the US for opportunity. Is true _as long as the US continues to understand this_ and doesn't change its stance on immigration and business and open markets. The US will win as long as it's the country where the best of this world are invited and able to come and do their best work. On the other hand, I don't see China having any chance at beating the US on that front anytime soon. M…

> beating the US on that front anytime soon Current trends suggest otherwise, see PRC rapidly catching up and leading R&D and innovation indexes controlled by citations or quality in the last few years. > quantities are incomparable If anything US is at an substantial quantity disadvantage and slight to modest quality advantage. While US does absorb _some_ of the best global talent, those are also subsect of best wit…

I don't doubt what you're saying, although I'm not sure about the validity of the data derived on count of publications, since that's easily gamed.

But what I'm saying is about immigration. I really doubt that the PRC will attract much STEM immigration in the future, at least in comparison to the US. As far as I can tell, the few dedicated folks who choose to emigrate to China do so despite an uphill battle and end up with limited job opportunities. The PRC will have a large internal talent pool to draw from, but will not attract foreign and diverse talent... at least that's my hunch, and mostly because of (1) hostile policies to foreigners (2) language barrier - Mandarin is much harder to learn than English (3) cultural barrier - Chinese culture is old and more self-centered than US's young, outward facing and constantly reinventing culture, and (4) having a bad reputation for personal freedoms and judicial fairness.

So sure, PRC isn't near its final state in term of STEM talent. But I think despite its domestic talent pool, it will not benefit from the diversity of talent that the US will continue to benefit from. And ultimately, 1.3B people is a large pool to draw talent from, but it's not as large as the other 6.4B people.

I do find this topic fascinating. I'm reading a book interview with Lee Kuan Yew which I find is making me reevaluate my prior beliefs. I'm more bullish on China than US on the long term, but LKY's insight were convincing and making a bull case for the US.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#568
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is more likely that TSMC is diversifying away from building only in Taiwan. They have the expertise. Apple's expertise is engineering, design, and marketing. They don't own their own factories because that is not their expertise, and they probably don't want to bring that in house.

Designing their own chips in-house wasn't "their expertise" either, a few years ago. You won't expand into other areas unless you at least make it a priority and try.

Acquiring PA Semi helped, but they were a fabless semiconductor startup, though with an experienced engineering team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P.A._Semi

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#569
post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like $20 a day. But its still dirt cheap compare to developed countries.

for how many hours a day, with what kind of PTO/benefits?

Nice question! To earn $20 a day they certainly would need to work overtime. And there is almost no such thing as benefits.

Re: Vietnam to make Apple Watch and MacBook

#570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This middle income trap is not a good thing by the way One of OG researchers who coined the term believe phenonmenon is overstated, to the point of not being useful or existing at all. Fundementally, middle income trap is not a good concept in evaluating PRC because even according to the original middle income analysis countries with proper industrial policies designed to move up value chain (like PRC) is likely con…

What you have described is BY DEFINTION the middle income trap. Economic growth and development is not linear - the type of strategy that brought incomes up from $400 to $2000 a year are not going to be the same to bring them up from $2000 to $10000. The kind of regional income transfers you mentioned is a MASSIVE legal undertaking that will inevitabely face a significant amount of opposition from the richer coastal…

I don't think we're disagreeing that equitable development is a huge challenge for PRC, at PRC scale, but my main point is middle income is not a useful lens to evaluate PRC, because 1) it's arbitrary cutoff that PRC is going to pass sooner than later 2) stupid large countries operate on different dynamics/expectations. It's even very not useful to lump 32M malaysia together with 200M Brazil let alone 1400M PRC.

> BY DEFINTION

Conceptually middle income trap is about countries stops moving up value chain and income gets stuck in middle income levels. It's a dumb blunt indicator that has no bearing on equity of development. If country has 100 Tony Starks making 20Trillion dollars in GDP of wizard widgets, while 1.4 billion subsists on crippling poverty but GDP per capita is above middle income, then congradulations, that country has escaped the middle income trap and all the wizard widget would categorize it as an advanced economy even if 99.99% of the impoverished people starves. Techncially if PRC is stuck at +$1 above middle income, it has escaped the trap, but the real question is weather PRC can continue moving up value chain and build competitive comprehensive national power, even at the cost of extreme inequity, not how/whether such equity can be addressed, which obviously is still important consideration for policy makers.

On that note PRC per capita gdp is set reach upper income this year, if not already even with revised slow growth numbers. Official CCP stats is $12,551 for 2021, which will put PRC in upper income of $12,696 with 2% growth this year. If you entertain the Shanghai police leak demographic extrapolations seriously, PRC today has 100M less people and entered upper income years ago. Meanwhile PRC is climbing value chain rapidly in essentially every sector, it's not specializng in a few, like the mid sized countries, but issue is, PRC simply has too many people for everyone to be lifted into upper income range. The difference with Malaysia/Mexico/Turkey/Russia/Brazil is on paper, extrapolating from recent Asian Tiger and other historic medium size country development trends, there should be enough opportunities for middle sized countries of 20-200M to specialize and be competitive in some higher tier sectors and escape the middle income trap.

PRC is not a middle sized country.

My opinion expectation suitable for middle size countries is ridiculous to apply to PRC with 1.4B people where 200M-300M tier1/2/3 workforce (very course guestimate) are already specializing in most sectors + 100s of millions of bullshit makework jobs by SEOs just to keep people busy, while 100s of millions more drift in informal economy. Think of USA with 160M workforce who can do pretty much everything there is to do, except manufacturing, which during peak, PRC employed ~300M. There's simply not enough domestic opportunities or global demand for 1.4B people. A good example is central gov reluctantly holding on to inefficient collective agriculture that employs 450M when realistically mechanization will axe 440M of those jobs and provide better food security.

>MASSIVE legal undertaking

Yes, there's going to be a lot of policy changes and reforms to get common prosperity rolling, or address rural education, vocational training etc. But TBH and blunt, opportunity for education and training has already passed for 100s of millions who are stuck in informal economy. Interior provinces neglected for too many generations. I don't know if they'll be taken care of by safety net or simply neglected - even Xi stressed common prosperity is not about handouts/welfare - but whatever they get, it's unlike to uplift them into upper income. They're never going to experience 25000 per capita China Dream by 2049. I think going forward PRC will remain a 2 tier society, something like gulf state with professional class and migrant labours that goes back to their less developed homes where PPP stretchs further. There's going to be reforms to improve QoL of of the bottom, but the classes are never going to converge. And hot take: CCP probably wants it that way, modern PRC is built and likely can only be sustained by 2 tier society with massive cheap migrant labour pool.

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