I think this is mostly right, but it makes it seem like successful apps are more of a crap shoot than they really are.
Too many (most?) apps are built without spending any time researching whether it solves a real problem people have (and are willing to pay for). I get it, we want to build things, not do market research.
Most people think that to build a successful app, you just have to "come up" with a brilliant idea and then go build it. That's not the case at all (while it does occasionally work, THAT is pure luck). Successful apps usually happen because the founder(s) saw a real pain point or gap in the market, and then build something to solve that.
You'll notice that the approaches are almost completely opposite:
- Build something and hope that people need it
- Find a problem that people actually have and build a solution that solves it well
Of course, this doesn't guarantee success (nothing does), but it vastly increases your chances of not wasting time building something nobody wants.
Also, I'm not naive about the different backgrounds/privileges people have; of course luck plays a factor here. I'm speaking directly about people who are already in a position to create an app (i.e. a lot of HN readers)