Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?

> I must make the assumption that you’re young.

I am 39.

> "Russia won the war in the first 72 hours".

In which universe?

Russia is absolutely humiliated, their tanks are rusting in Ukrainian fields by hundreds, there are no new human reserves, morale on the front is all-time low, and Ukrainians are now bombing Crimean targets without any retaliation.

Which is a good thing, of course.

Sorry to burst your bubble but so far Ukrainian army did 0 wins and only suffers losses. They don't bomb Crimean targets, they do sabotages (or terroristic acts, depending on your side) which sometimes work. I will not carry on this conversation because this is US website and US fight for Ukraine, so it's pretty pointless, but you can't deny the big picture. I'll agree that Russia is not winning when Russia would lose any big city it captured. Like this mystical attack on Herson which is promised for months but not happening.

I have a quite different (and most likely biased) opinion than most people (here or in Western countries).

WWIII is already happening. The US is closing up on Russia now for more than a decade. China is growing economically but they are still far away militarily and except for Russia there isn't really another contender for the US militarily speaking.

Before 2010 the world was quite multi-polar with the US being the leader. Now, we are moving to a uni-polar world and this is of course triggering reactions both from China, Russia and countries that want to remain sovereign (ie: India, Brazil, ASEAN, etc...)

Countries not in the western sphere are already aware of this. The EU is quite aware of this too and it's going to be a loser in this new order but it doesn't seem to be able to build a politically independent force to have its own policy. Russia is the main target and they know this, that's why they are freaking out. China probably doesn't like Russia much but certainly would prefer a multi-polar world (at least until they are able to become the leader); so they'll help the Russians to slow down the West. Major other countries like India do not like China or Russia but they are concerned about the accumulation of power and inflation in the West/US hands. Smaller countries are trying to survive in this environment and feed their people either by selling their young labor for pennies, or opening their borders for rich people from the West to sun bathe.

That's the world for you, in a nutshell.

If I am to predict the future:

- Russia gets drawn in a long war with Ukraine. The US is playing the long game of starving them financially and technologically.

- China will probably collapse in a spectacular fashion. They are far from being a united country. The outcome won't be easy to predict and China is huge. It is possible this will happen without much disruption to trading lines.

- Europe/Euro/Schengen will end sometime in the next 10 years. Some European countries will be back to third-world status.

- With the fall of the Euro, the US dollar will become the ultimate currency. The US will be able to yield enormous influence all over the world.

> Inevitable because thats history. Pax Americana has effectively come to an end with the Taliban giveaway.

From the Euro POV, Pax Americana ended with the second invasion of Iraq. This was a complete misuse of the post-war common pact system based on lies. Since Europe was on the receiving end of those lies, it has not been forgotten.

This is a common view throughout Europe across many political boundaries. The reason that this is important is that the opinion of the rest of the world is what gives Pax Americana its power.

My 2c, I still don't think it's over.

The fact that USA is doing anything for Ukraine is astounding all in itself.

Russia is not even a remote threat to USA, besides nuclear weapons.

Russia is a threat to Europe - Ukraine, Georgia, Baltics, Poland, Finland, Kazahstan.

And still Germany and France would be happy to give up Ukraine whole to Russia if not for USA.

Germany was happily making itself dependent on Russia and paying Russia to modernize their army. Germany was even bypassing their own sanctions after 2014 to deliver weapons components to Russia that are now being found in wrecks in Ukraine. All while Germany is deeply relaying on USA for defense from Russia. It's crazy that USA was so chill about it until Trump.

As a Pole born and raised 40km from Kaliningrad oblast it's really weird that I trust USA more than I do Germany, France, Italy etc.