1) Russia is about to lose bigley to a backwater country called Ukraine.
2) China has a tin-pot military that has not really fought an external war since Korea.
No.
Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
51–60 of 173 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#52> China preparing to invade Taiwan ...
There is, as of now, no evidence China is preparing to invade anything. There's always sable rattling, hasn't happened yet.
> Wars happen when two or nation's drive for self-preservation collide
That's a naive view of war, which ignores individual a-holes. There's no self-preservation in Russia invading Ukraine...
I understand it's easy to despair and fear seeing some of the things happening in the world. I am much more optimistic.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The Taiwan situation is interesting but ultimately China knows they won't be able to take Taiwan by force without extreme consequences - nor would it be easy. Is there a reason to be sure they are this rational? Some people just get mad and kill others just for sake of "honour" as their weird philosophy defines it, no matter the consequences.
Indeed, I feel many are betting on rationality coming on top and that simply makes no sense to me. For example, does it seem like the Russian public is rational in any way? There are many approving of the 'denazification' rhetoric in Ukraine. Since the CCP has been pushing the narrative that Taiwan is China, it's somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Meanwhile, believing what do politicians say is among the most absurdly irrational acts possible. It is a well known fact lying and manipulating is their everyday job. Historically this has been especially intense and well known in Russia. To me it seems really weird and fascinating there still are people trusting politicians in Russia.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
When did the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine? There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. As for Taiwan, it's an unknown and if you claim otherwise, you're doing it based on nothing. Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan. Not saying the US actually wants to, maybe it's just a deterrent. However, if China does attack and the US backs…
>There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. NPR hosted the former commander of NATO who called for the US to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, to include shooting down Russian jets. Numerous Senators and Congressmen backed one as well. https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-comman...
Yeah but the U.S. didn't do that, did they?
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.
My half Ukrainian wife says that the US is willing to fight the war in Ukraine until the last Ukrainian.
And Russia is willing to fight it to the last Dagestani, Ossetian etc.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#561) Russia is about to lose bigley to a backwater country called Ukraine. 2) China has a tin-pot military that has not really fought an external war since Korea. No.
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Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#57I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…
I would like that to be true. Did Germany stand a chance to win WWII? Probably not, or at best a slim chance; it made huge, surprising victories against most of continental Europe, but it just picked on too many opponents. By the time the US was in, it was (slow and deadly) game over. They believed their own BS and went ahead with it regardless. I guess the risk here is that Russia or China could also believe their o…
I know this is a serious thread, but it reminds me of Norm’s bit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uXdtafGdIVM
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#58I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…
> China's economy depends on being able to export to the West
China's import is far more important for now.
It imports vast amounts of food and fuel by boat. It would be trivial to stop those.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#59> China preparing to invade Taiwan They have been preparing for a long time, but Taiwan is preparing extremely well, too. If China decides to strike, they will take enormous damage and if they succeed, they will just get some barren land with toxic waste which is an unreasonably high price to pay and completely unnecessary - it's not like they lack land like Bangladesh.
>They have been preparing for a long time, but Taiwan is preparing extremely well, too.
Are they? My coworker doesn't speak highly of his time in Taiwan's armed forces. Government ministers have begun to speak frankly on this issue, too. Apparently they overinvested in expensive, flashy systems like tanks and jets while underinvesting in training, drones, defensive weapons and personnel.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-c...
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would like that to be true. Did Germany stand a chance to win WWII? Probably not, or at best a slim chance; it made huge, surprising victories against most of continental Europe, but it just picked on too many opponents. By the time the US was in, it was (slow and deadly) game over. They believed their own BS and went ahead with it regardless. I guess the risk here is that Russia or China could also believe their o…
Indeed, I think people tend to forget that Germany declared war on the US - which I have seen described (in a fantastic bit of understatement) as "most puzzling": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_declaration_of_war_agai...
Thank you for the interesting link! It seems to hold the key to why Germany declared war against the U.S. - essentially it was a condition of Japan’s first strike against the U.S.:
On 28 November 1941, Ribbentrop confirmed to Hiroshi Oshima, the Japanese ambassador to Germany, what Hitler himself had told Japanese foreign minister Yosuke Matsuoka: that if Japan got involved in a war with the US, Germany would enter the war on Japan's side. When the Japanese asked for written confirmation of this, Hitler provided it, along with Mussolini's consent.