Earlier quoted context omitted.
So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.
Where’s China proxywarring?
Wars in Vietnam, Korea, Central America, Syria, just to name a few.
Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
41–50 of 173 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#42I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…
I would like that to be true. Did Germany stand a chance to win WWII? Probably not, or at best a slim chance; it made huge, surprising victories against most of continental Europe, but it just picked on too many opponents. By the time the US was in, it was (slow and deadly) game over. They believed their own BS and went ahead with it regardless. I guess the risk here is that Russia or China could also believe their o…
Indeed, I think people tend to forget that Germany declared war on the US - which I have seen described (in a fantastic bit of understatement) as "most puzzling":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_declaration_of_war_agai...
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#43On my side I think its inevitable. The only question is "when", my 2c on why "inevitable" and some thoughts on where we are.
Inevitable because thats history. Pax Americana has effectively come to an end with the Taliban giveaway. The official end will be if/when they abandon Taiwan; and thats why people care so much. If US can't intervene to save its allies then their word means shit. US has become complacent, self-absorbed in its own problems and as every "empire" crumbling from within. The signs are pretty visible both economically and socially and I won't expand because it would take a whole essay. Point is, when an empire stumbles, others run to take its place (or a piece of it). Of course, there is the asterisk of nuclear weapons that ensure MAD but I bet that millions or billions of man hours are spent on finding ways to avoid MAD on both sides. If that will result in MAD in the end , I don't know; but I don't think its a deterrent which is as real as it was in the 60s.
How close are we? I would put a timeframe of 10-15 years if no other major event comes up. Because US is not what it used to be 10years ago even. The fuckup in north africa was the start, the absolute plunder in Afghanistan was next. People in US are tired of wars as inequality grows and the political system offers no exit. Couple this with a societal swift towards postmodernity thanks to the arrogance of the "elites" and you have a great mix of angered populace with no regards to rationality. Now the war in UKR creates a fundamentally unstable system in the heart of Europe. This system will have to stabilize one way or the other, Russia cannot remain a pariah for a long time or it will risk making it even more aggresive. China is asking for "lebenraum" in southeast sea which US doesn't want to give (but IMO they will be forced to). If China decides to take Taiwan the option is either war with china in their backyard, or backing out and accelerate the US downfall. Either way, it won't go out without a boom, it never does.
Newer generations in advanced countries (including me) view war as something extraterrestrial but reality is that its an everyday phenomenon for the biggest part of the world and for the most time in history. So its easy to think/hope that it will be like this forever and "war is finished", but Ukraine showed to most Europeans that its not (and IMO thats what shocked them the most)
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#44I doubt it simply because there's still a massive power imbalance between western and non-western countries. A war with China and Russia would obviously be awful for the human race, but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war, nor would it make sense to fight it. I mean what does the "winner" of WWIII gain? You might win the war, but now the planet is a nuclear waste land. I think China and Russia…
> The Taiwan situation is interesting but ultimately China knows they won't be able to take Taiwan by force without extreme consequences - nor would it be easy. Is there a reason to be sure they are this rational? Some people just get mad and kill others just for sake of "honour" as their weird philosophy defines it, no matter the consequences.
Indeed, I feel many are betting on rationality coming on top and that simply makes no sense to me.
For example, does it seem like the Russian public is rational in any way? There are many approving of the 'denazification' rhetoric in Ukraine. Since the CCP has been pushing the narrative that Taiwan is China, it's somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#45>
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#46WW3 will not happen. Countries are not stupid to destroy the Earth. Local wars here and there happened and will happen in the future. There's nothing special about Ukraine or Taiwan in that regard. World will move from US-centric model to multi-polar model. One pole is China, one pole is Russia, one pole is EU, one pole is US, one pole is Iran. Confused about India but probably it'll be a separate pole as well. Proba…
I think that the world is now more unipolar than ever before. Russia is repeatedly proving that it worth nearly nothing both in military and political sense, the Chinese military power is also very much overestimated. EU is nearly defenseless on their own too. Only the US has the military power to win any existential war (small wars of course can still be “lost”, as the adversary can become the prize not worth taking…
I don't agree to your judgement about Russia. Chinese army might lack some real fight experience, but they got numbers and they got budgets. EU increases their military budgets as well, so things will change in the future.
US has powerful army but that costs a lot. Once US economy will stagnate, and at this point that's pretty obvious, military budgets will be cut. US run from Afghanistan not because they achieved something but because they can't afford it anymore. It'll happen with other places.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US). These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winni…
When did the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine? There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. As for Taiwan, it's an unknown and if you claim otherwise, you're doing it based on nothing. Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan. Not saying the US actually wants to, maybe it's just a deterrent. However, if China does attack and the US backs…
>There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine.
NPR hosted the former commander of NATO who called for the US to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, to include shooting down Russian jets. Numerous Senators and Congressmen backed one as well.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-comman...
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#48WW3 will not happen. Countries are not stupid to destroy the Earth. Local wars here and there happened and will happen in the future. There's nothing special about Ukraine or Taiwan in that regard. World will move from US-centric model to multi-polar model. One pole is China, one pole is Russia, one pole is EU, one pole is US, one pole is Iran. Confused about India but probably it'll be a separate pole as well. Proba…
I think that the world is now more unipolar than ever before. Russia is repeatedly proving that it worth nearly nothing both in military and political sense, the Chinese military power is also very much overestimated. EU is nearly defenseless on their own too. Only the US has the military power to win any existential war (small wars of course can still be “lost”, as the adversary can become the prize not worth taking…
Nuclear weapons. That's all it comes down to. If Russia didn't have them then (rightly or wrongly) Putin would have been bombed months ago. An existential war would involve large scale use of nuclear weapons, and the US cannot win that. Neither can Russia or China, mind you.
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
> They're violating Taiwan air space daily They are not, actually, and I don't think they ever did. > it could have tried to take other countries, like Poland, Moldova, some scandinavian countries Of course not. Russia is not going to attack or invade NATO countries, nor is it clear why they would invade a non-NATO Scandinavian country... And in practical terms they couldn't really pulled off invading a country like…
> They are not, actually, and I don't think they ever did. Jan 2021 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3116557/pla... "Chinese air force entered island’s ADIZ on 91 days from January to November, according to Taipei-based think tank" April 2021 https://www.sps-aviation.com/story/?id=2907&h=Frequent-Viola... "Violation of Taiwanese airspace by military aircraft of the PRC appears to have become a regular…
The ADIZ is not Taiwanese airspace. It's an arbitrary, unilaterally defined area that extends well into international airspace and even into continental China.
As far as I know mainland Chinese planes have always stayed in their air space or international air space.
This is reported in a way that is either misleading or plainly incorrect for 'propaganda' purposes. For instance, the second article you quote is plainly a pile of cr*p.
There is a map of Taiwan's ADIZ on Wikipedia from a slide by the Taiwanese military about a Chinese 'violation [1]. You can see that it extends well beyond national air space and that, in that slide, Chinese planes never came close to Taiwanese air space. This is fairly typical of what makes headlines as "Chinese incursion into Taiwan's air defence zone"...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B109%E5%...
Re: Ask HN: Is WWIII already in its early stages?
#50In my opinion, the World War is ongoing, when every country sees the opportunity to enter a fray and exit in a better position.
"Perceived opportunity" here is the key and actual warfare is less relevant, because in normal situation entering a war has obviously negative outcome.
So, it looks like we're in already.