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The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

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Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#101
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It happens a lot. A theory getting ruled out by new observation. Examples: (these aren't old philosophers, crackpots, or fringe theories) * https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/science/cosmic-exp... * https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankoberlein/2020/03/22/astro... * https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03678-x * https://news.fnal.gov/2015/12/holometer-rules-out-first-theo...

None of these examples are of theories like our current hot Big Bang model getting ruled out by observation, with no better theory replacing them, which is what the post I was responding to claimed can happen. The first, in fact, is not even finalized yet, because there are still unresolved issues about the actual value of the Hubble constant: different sets of observations point at different values and the discrepan…

>Theories don't get "falsified" except in rare cases and in the idealized fanciful histories of some philosophers of science

>None of these examples are of theories like our current hot Big Bang model

In your first post you're fine with lumping together well established theories with loads of evidence like Big Bang and a philosophers zero evidence theories based on their intuition alone. The two extremes of theory legitimacy.

In your second post you're strongly rejecting the middle of some-to-little-evidence theories to back up your original easily refuted claim that theories rarely if ever get ruled out by evidence.

I think you just didn't think through or spell out your original argument very carefully.

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#102
post #100
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The question of whether new observations falsify the current theory is completely separate from the creation of a better theory. No, it isn't. Theories don't get "falsified" except in rare cases and in the idealized fanciful histories of some philosophers of science. The idea that you can run one critical experiment that, if the results come out a certain way, will falsify a theory, is a myth. Scientific models lik…

> Theories don't get "falsified" except in rare cases and in the idealized fanciful histories of some philosophers of science. Exactly. This is the problem. Hey, I get it, we're not talking about Galileo rolling things down ramps here. Cosmology is huge and messy and there's going to be a lot of noise in all observations. I'm not claiming that the Big Bang is wrong, and I would never say that we should jettison decad…

> if the contradictory data were to mount, and be confirmed and reconfirmed by multiple researchers over time, well, I'd like to think that we'd have the intellectual courage to admit that this explanation doesn't seem right, even though we don't have a better one.

If we don't have a better one, and if our current model makes reasonably good predictions about many things, even if its predictions aren't as good about some things, we wouldn't say our current model is wrong because it isn't wrong. What we would do is to start having more conversations about our current model's domain of validity.

Perhaps some historical observations will help. Consider the history of physics, or more specifically mechanics. Before Galileo and Newton the best model of mechanics we had was Aristotelian physics. When Galileo and Newton came along and gave us a better model, we dropped Aristotelian physics, and now if you asked most physicists they would probably say Aristotelian physics was wrong, period, without feeling the need to add qualifiers or explanations. This is the kind of case I think most people are thinking of when they talk about falsifying a theory with contradictory data.

But since that transition, there have been no theories of mechanics that have been falsified by contradictory data. When special relativity came along, we didn't drop Newtonian mechanics, and physicists now don't say Newtonian mechanics is wrong. They just say it has a limited domain of validity: it's an approximation to relativity that works reasonably well for relative speeds much smaller than the speed of light.

Similarly, when general relativity came along, we didn't drop Newtonian gravity and say it was wrong; we just clarified that the domain of validity of Newtonian mechanics is also limited to weak gravitational fields. And even if GR hadn't been discovered, physicists would still have continued using Newtonian mechanics even though there was data known in the 19th century, like the extra precession of Mercury's perihelion, that was not consistent with Newtonian mechanics. Newtonian mechanics still gets taught to physics students today, and is still used for practical computations in all kinds of contexts.

When Eric Lerner claims that "the Big Bang didn't happen", he is claiming that the Big Bang theory is destined to go the way of Aristotelian physics. But none of the data he cites justifies that claim. At best the data justifies a claim that the standard Big Bang model that assumes homogeneity and isotropy is an approximation with a limited domain of validity--which cosmologists all already agree on anyway! What we are still working out are the exact limits of its domain of validity. In other words, cosmologists in general expect our current Big Bang theory to work like Newtonian mechanics: we might discover models in the future that are more comprehensive and to which our current model is an approximation in some limited domain, but that's very, very different from it being falsified.

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#103
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of these examples are of theories like our current hot Big Bang model getting ruled out by observation, with no better theory replacing them, which is what the post I was responding to claimed can happen. The first, in fact, is not even finalized yet, because there are still unresolved issues about the actual value of the Hubble constant: different sets of observations point at different values and the discrepan…

>Theories don't get "falsified" except in rare cases and in the idealized fanciful histories of some philosophers of science >None of these examples are of theories like our current hot Big Bang model In your first post you're fine with lumping together well established theories with loads of evidence like Big Bang and a philosophers zero evidence theories based on their intuition alone. The two extremes of theory le…

> In your first post you're fine with lumping together well established theories with loads of evidence like Big Bang and a philosophers zero evidence theories based on their intuition alone.

I don't know where you're getting this from. It should be clear from the post you refer to that by "theories" I meant models like our current hot Big Bang model, not "zero evidence theories based on intuition alone".

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sure i did. but what you say doesnt invalidate what i said. if someone finds this interesting they can pursue answers perhaps. personally i find it entertaining. also apparently this guys work has been published in a reputable journal

the point was that "the unpopular, unconvincing hypothesis is right" need be treated as a possibility only if the probability is high enough, and knowing that the vast majority are wrong is an important bayesian input in properly estimating that probability

The vast majority of doctors did not believe in germ theory 170 years. There were like one or two people called cranks telling surgeons to wash their hands before surgery. The vast majority can often be wrong. It’s a terrible input

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#106
Hey all,

Somebody talking 'bout me? Why don't you all tune in next month to our debate in London https://howthelightgetsin.org/events/cosmology-and-the-big-b... Science advances by comparing predictions with subsequent observations. Right now the Big Bang makes 16 wrong quantitative predictions and one right one. The details are not in serious dispute in the literature. My conclusions are what's controversial. The consensus is "well we can fix all these problems, just wait." Sort of like getting on an airline that just had 16 crashes out of 17 flights. But throw out the Big Bang and you've got a lot of correct predictions. Details here: https://youtu.be/tK3OStArUqE

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#107
post #4

> One paper’s title begins with the candid exclamation: “Panic!” Completely burying the full title "Panic! At the Disks: First Rest-frame Optical Observations of Galaxy Structure at z>3 with JWST in the SMACS 0723 Field" which is the best Panic! at the Disco pun I've seen in a long time.

The reference to the band is only funny because the paper clearly shows that the whole collision-merger theory that is fundamental to cosmology today is wrong, so the theorists will panic. It's an inside joke. As my article says, no mergers, no growth of galaxies, no tiny galaxies long ago, no expansion optical illusion and thus no expansion.

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#108

Hey all, Somebody talking 'bout me? Why don't you all tune in next month to our debate in London https://howthelightgetsin.org/events/cosmology-and-the-big-b... Science advances by comparing predictions with subsequent observations. Right now the Big Bang makes 16 wrong quantitative predictions and one right one. The details are not in serious dispute in the literature. My conclusions are what's controversial. The co…

Hey Eric, I wonder if that really you. Just wanted to say hi, read your book many years ago and found the Plasma Universe theory very fascinating and frankly less bleak than the Big Bang with its philosophical implications about irreversible decay and such (you make that point in the book itself.)

Also, I have the feeling Gravitational Cosmology has reached a point where most effort goes into “refining the constants” - was it Hilbert that said that was all that was left to do, right before Quantum Mechanics was introduced? - so a little bombshell discovery would make things very exiting and fresh.

Keep it up!

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#109
post #108

Hey all, Somebody talking 'bout me? Why don't you all tune in next month to our debate in London https://howthelightgetsin.org/events/cosmology-and-the-big-b... Science advances by comparing predictions with subsequent observations. Right now the Big Bang makes 16 wrong quantitative predictions and one right one. The details are not in serious dispute in the literature. My conclusions are what's controversial. The co…

Hey Eric, I wonder if that really you. Just wanted to say hi, read your book many years ago and found the Plasma Universe theory very fascinating and frankly less bleak than the Big Bang with its philosophical implications about irreversible decay and such (you make that point in the book itself.) Also, I have the feeling Gravitational Cosmology has reached a point where most effort goes into “refining the constants”…

I was mistaken. It wasn’t Hilbert (who had a somewhat similar ambition in Mathematics) but Lord Kelvin.

https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/science/physics/lord-kelvin-...

Re: The Big Bang didn't happen: What do the James Webb images show?

#110
post #108

Hey all, Somebody talking 'bout me? Why don't you all tune in next month to our debate in London https://howthelightgetsin.org/events/cosmology-and-the-big-b... Science advances by comparing predictions with subsequent observations. Right now the Big Bang makes 16 wrong quantitative predictions and one right one. The details are not in serious dispute in the literature. My conclusions are what's controversial. The co…

Hey Eric, I wonder if that really you. Just wanted to say hi, read your book many years ago and found the Plasma Universe theory very fascinating and frankly less bleak than the Big Bang with its philosophical implications about irreversible decay and such (you make that point in the book itself.) Also, I have the feeling Gravitational Cosmology has reached a point where most effort goes into “refining the constants”…

Hi, It's really me. The equivalent these days is the term "Precision Cosmology", implying all that's left is the next decimal point. To which I reply: "Precision Cosmology is precisely wrong."
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