121–130 of 130 posts
This makes me wonder; how different would the COVID pandemic death toll have been if governments didn’t change anything? No travel bans, no lockdowns, etc. I suspect many people would still voluntarily use masks, self-isolate, protect their eldery and take other precautions.
After putting on sun-cream and insect repellent, I’d be later considering if I had really needed to: Did I not get bit by mosquitoes because there weren’t any in that area at that time of day – or was it because of the insect repellent? Did I not get burnt because there had been enough cloud to block damaging ultra-violet radiation – or was it the sun-cream? At the start of the holiday, I was bad at estimating the risk (due to lack of experience) so called it wrong and ended up getting bitten and slightly sun-burnt.
I compared these experiences with those of acquaintances who had been vaccinated against Covid-19. When they and others they know personally finally got infected they concluded it wasn’t that bad and that the health services and the government had been over-reacting. I tried to persuade them that comparing Ireland against other countries that had less vaccination uptake showed that the decreased severity of the disease on a macro scale was most likely due to the vaccines doing their job.
Y2k. People act like it was a nothing because we fixed everything, but it wouldn't have been a nothing if we didn't fix everything!
Nop. We just want to pretend to think that we did something the last two years.
Glad the article mentions y2k. The massive hype and hysteria resulted in all the systems of significance being patched.
Home many y2k patches did u install in 1999?
In the modern world, a good fraction of potential problems can be estimated using good computer models. Examples include building design parameters for withstanding earthquakes and hurricanes, river flow models for projecting potential flooding, aircraft design models that discover problems before planes start crashing, climate models that show the results of burning fossil fuels for decades, etc. Yes, many people do…
I've seen this so much regarding covid-19 in Australia, especially at the start. Everyone I know complained bitterly at the restrictions we had in Sydney, even when they weren't that strict, saying "but only 5 people have died" or whatever. I'd say "Yeah, because what we're doing is working. Look at Italy, or the UK, or France, or the USA". Interestingly, there was a clear divide between people(like me) who had famil…
"The End Is Near and It's Going to Be Awesome: How Going Broke Will Leave America Richer, Happier, and More Secure" [0]
[0] https://www.amazon.com/End-Near-Its-Going-Awesome/dp/0062220...
I don't understand why it's called a paradox. It's just people having trouble understanding counterfactuals. Getting better at systems thinking is a great way to get better at avoiding this. At work I've learned to point out "we wouldn't need to spend time on this if we invested the time to implement X", so the product folks are more aware of the counterfactuals when it comes time to justify the investment.
Otherwise it just seems like a relationship between two variables…