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Preparedness Paradox

en.wikipedia.org

51–60 of 130 posts

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#51

I’m having this struggle with projects at work. I’ve had to push back on all sorts of requests from our project manager and designer so that our team has the bandwidth to focus on some very important stability and security concerns for our next release. They want all sorts of additional fancy bells and whistles (that don’t add much user value or functionality) that we just can’t focus on right now, because it would c…

Yep, the curse of doing things right. You can't prove it was needed. You need to demonstrate that you are fixing genuine problems, or you will eventually be replaced by someone who delivers faster, even if there are subsequent bugs. One way to do this is to negotiate with the business in what needs doing, using risk. If you think there is a risk of a security or stability issue then you should be able to assess that…

While this works with rational actors the experience I have had in the industry is often the opposite. In fact, the company I work for now is probably the only company I've worked for in the last decade that actually correctly evaluates risk. The average corporate drone overseeing the engineer org is very typically the least rational actor in the entire org.

Given the opportunity most start-up and mid-tier business will prioritize speed over safety. Despite my many attempts to explain this trade off using various methods such as engineer-speak, business-speak, or some combination of the two the need for money and the need to constantly impress investors trumps all. I have quite literally told people the total cost of a half-fix will be more than double the cost in engineering hours to implement a correct fix and by-and-large the half-fix will be chosen because it "gets the feature out to users quicker". It's the most asinine thing I've heard and I fully understand the need to deliver on time and on budget.

In the end your ass is never covered. It will be your fault whether you suggested to do it and they said no, or they said yes. Your team will end up working the long hours to implement the obvious security and safety changes. The math for the other side is simple, if the cost to take on the risk is less than the cost to implement the fix, it will never get done. Companies use pager duty for free labor for a reason. It's the industry's most effective permitter of poor practices.

Sure, something as simple as "we should really hash our passwords" might be so glaringly obvious even the most dense business person would understand. But when you wander into the land of ambiguity is when you really get burned. When the company is spending $XX,XXX/mo. on cloud storage because the ticket specifically said to not worry about lifecycle it's going to be you in the office explaining why this wasn't fixed. Rarely will any business person take "its your fault" as the answer. They'll happily assign you as many 60 hour weeks as you need to fix the problem and in a large enough corporate-tier screw up you may be the sacrificial lamb for the investors to feel like "the problem was solved".

Call me cynical but this is an unwinnable battle. Unfortunately, until software bugs start literally killing people, the desire to actually allow engineers to do their job will be low.

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#53
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point about the levee issue. Apparently there's a little wikiwar going on with that one already. I couldn't follow their logic with Fukushima either. The wording was a little strange. The Year 2000 scenario and covid scenarios are great examples IMO. The problem is that any great example is intrinsically going to be controversial, and that seems to be the paradox itself.

For a real world example, you can look to the hole in the ozone layer. This conservative commentator and roughly 42k twitter users agree that we "suddenly just stopped talking about it", when in reality governments implemented bans on CFCs that mostly solved the problem. https://twitter.com/mattwalshblog/status/1549713211188027394

[deleted]

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#54

This also manifests in for instance how we treat testing in software engineering. Folks don't get as much credit for writing tests because it's impossible to count the set of SEVs that didn't happen. On the other hand, you get outsized credit for the heroics of fixing them.

Testing is a loss of time. It absorbs about 50% the workforce, and projects that don’t have it don’t necessarily suffer. Also, ask an engineer whether tests are complete, and he’ll always tell you that we haven’t tested anything yet. You need a cutoff at one point.

I think you're demonstrating exactly the fallacy that I identified.

I know personally I've caught massive issues in my own unit testing of my own code - so I know for a fact it's not a dead loss of time. I'm also not sure why you think it takes 50% of the workforce - that's never been my experience.

The trick is knowing what to test, how much to test it and how long to spend.

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#55
post #11
post #2

Incoherent. How can there be a levee paradox. You can see the water it holds back. More people build because there are less floods. No idea what they are talking about with Fukushima The Millennial Bug is a good prospect. But that's a debate in itself.

Good point about the levee issue. Apparently there's a little wikiwar going on with that one already. I couldn't follow their logic with Fukushima either. The wording was a little strange. The Year 2000 scenario and covid scenarios are great examples IMO. The problem is that any great example is intrinsically going to be controversial, and that seems to be the paradox itself.

This examples can be made up arbitrarily. For any situation. You can always say that if it weren't for x, y would be even worse.

"If people didn't carry guns, there would be more violence."

"If we didn't start climate talks , climate change would be even worse."

etc...

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#56
The best strategy for countering the preparedness paradox is to prepare, while simultaneously telling everyone else not to prepare/over-react. Then you get the benefit of preparedness AND the proof that it was required. Win-Win(-lose)!

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#57

I don't understand why it's called a paradox. It's just people having trouble understanding counterfactuals. Getting better at systems thinking is a great way to get better at avoiding this. At work I've learned to point out "we wouldn't need to spend time on this if we invested the time to implement X", so the product folks are more aware of the counterfactuals when it comes time to justify the investment.

>I don't understand why it's called a paradox. It's just people having trouble understanding counterfactuals.

So? Most paradoxes can be described as "people having trouble understanding X".

The Liar's paradox is "people having trouble understanding meta-statements" (at least according to Russel's theory).

Zeno's Ahilles paradox is people not understanding convergent infinite series's.

The Potato paradox is people not understanding algebra.

The Friendship paradox is people not understanding statistics.

And so on...

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's just people having trouble understanding counterfactuals. You've just described most paradoxes. From the definition of "paradox": > a seemingly absurd or self-contradictory statement or proposition that when investigated or explained may prove to be well founded or true.

How odd, I've never come across that definition of paradox. I've always understood it to be purely self-contradictory, like: This sentence is false. If I take it to be false, it's true; if I take it to be true, it's false. The proper understanding is that it actually has no semantic meaning, but it certainly doesn't prove to be well-founded or true. Using "paradox" for something like this concept though is along the…

>How odd, I've never come across that definition of paradox. I've always understood it to be purely self-contradictory, like: This sentence is false.

That's just one kind of paradox in one domain (say, logic). There are well known named paradoxes of several different types, belonging to several different domains...

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How odd, I've never come across that definition of paradox. I've always understood it to be purely self-contradictory, like: This sentence is false. If I take it to be false, it's true; if I take it to be true, it's false. The proper understanding is that it actually has no semantic meaning, but it certainly doesn't prove to be well-founded or true. Using "paradox" for something like this concept though is along the…

Yeah, this is something that has always bugged be a tiny bit. I was more familiar with the idea of a paradox as something like your definition -- containing an actual contradiction. But it seems to be used instead to describe any initially counterintuitive situation. It is tempting to attribute this to a technical/non-technical difference (similar to fallacy, which in non-technical discussion has been expanded to bas…

i always heard it called the birthday problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

[weirdly, someone discovered an birthday overlap today at work and i just re-google/wiki'd this today]

Re: Preparedness Paradox

#60
post #57

I don't understand why it's called a paradox. It's just people having trouble understanding counterfactuals. Getting better at systems thinking is a great way to get better at avoiding this. At work I've learned to point out "we wouldn't need to spend time on this if we invested the time to implement X", so the product folks are more aware of the counterfactuals when it comes time to justify the investment.

> I don't understand why it's called a paradox. It's just people having trouble understanding counterfactuals. So? Most paradoxes can be described as "people having trouble understanding X". The Liar's paradox is "people having trouble understanding meta-statements" (at least according to Russel's theory). Zeno's Ahilles paradox is people not understanding convergent infinite series's. The Potato paradox is people no…

It seems that tunesmith has stumbled upon the paradox paradox.
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