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Second-Order Thinking

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Re: Second-Order Thinking

#21

Post by jdmoreira »

danw1979 wrote: post #19

This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning.

> This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences.

Everyone can understand that actions have (first-order) consequences. The problem is that most people stop there. But consequences also have consequences, those are second-order consequences. And you can follow the reasoning to nth-order consequences.

The better game players (chess for example but can applied to anything) simply go deeper in the search tree and try to average out all outcomes... that's what higher-order thinking is. You go deeper in the tree and you backtrack.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#22

Post by theshrike79 »

danw1979 wrote: post #19

This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning.

I once had a project manager that didn't do second order thinking at all.

He saw our current state and the finish line. To him there was just one simple step between now and completing the project called "just do all the stuff".

I tried explaining the Coastline Paradox[0] to him but it just didn't stick.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#23

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

> Second-order thinking takes a lot of work. It’s not easy to think in terms of systems, interactions, and time.

Experience helps a lot, there. After having your ass handed to you a few times, second-order thinking basically becomes automatic.

Just sayin’…

”Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgment.”

-Attributed to Nasrudin, but made famous by Will Rogers

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#24

Post by noduerme »

Aaaand third order thinking is skimming this and knowing it's about as deep as the conversation I tried to have at a bar three hours ago when I explained I was just playing "devil's advocate" to someone who was already playing devil's advocate.

Whenever I get desperate enough to start a blog full of deep thoughts that only gets posted here, watch out HN.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#26

Post by natmaka »

12ian34 wrote: post #12

This is just "long term thinking". I would say the article isn't worth reading. But at least, it's a good reminder to focus on thinking about the long term consequences of actions/decisions.

Indeed, and in many ways it leads to holism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holism

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#28

Post by noduerme »

danw1979 wrote: post #19

This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning.

what's the difference between domain experience and iterating over cause and effect?

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#29

Post by noduerme »

theshrike79 wrote: post #22
danw1979 wrote: post #19

This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences. I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning.

I once had a project manager that didn't do second order thinking at all. He saw our current state and the finish line. To him there was just one simple step between now and completing the project called "just do all the stuff". I tried explaining the Coastline Paradox[0] to him but it just didn't stick. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox

no no.. that's why those guys make the big bucks. Turning creative/intelligent work into blobs that can be measured and priced is a highly paid job reserved for a certain type of exceptionally dopey, incapable jackass.

Re: Second-Order Thinking

#30

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

I use the predictive horizon model. It's not that there's a clear division between first order and second order thinking, it's that some people's ability to model consequences covers a narrow area, a few people can model successfully much further out, and a tiny minority can make astounding predictive leaps that reach far into the future.

It's a continuous variable, not a Boolean.

But it means most of the population literally cannot see consequences that seem obvious to someone with a wider reach.

Asking "and then what" won't change this, because if your modelling ability is poor you'll just get a longer list of wrong predictions.

It's a mix of native ability (IQ helps, but it's not a sole determinant), domain specific experience, and experience with synthetic thinking - the ability to filter and combine multiple trends, as opposed to purely analytical thinking which usually looks at one or two.

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