This is just an advert for some guy's book, isn't it?
He provides examples, a thorough logical argument, and practical advice without a single ad in between. I don’t know why you would say that.
Second-Order Thinking
11–20 of 266 posts
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#12This is just "long term thinking". I would say the article isn't worth reading. But at least, it's a good reminder to focus on thinking about the long term consequences of actions/decisions.
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#13Surely this is just 'thinking', instead of acting on impulse or gut-feel. Second-order thinking is thinking about thinking. eg, If we have a decision to make, first order thinking is analyzing the situation and making the decision. Second order thinking is deciding how to go about analyzing the situation, how to arrive at a decision, how to measure the outcome, etc.
Second order thinking would be thinking about processes, rather than the situation.
So if you have a problem like in the article, you don't like the current government. First order thinking is fund the rebels. Second order thinking is thinking about which countries have had good outcomes from government change and which countries had bad outcomes, which countries had a gradual power turn over, which countries end up friendly to you. By quantifying what outcomes are most favorable and finding out the prerequisites, we can then formulate a policy that is consistent for many cases.
Then you can eliminate first order thinking, since you have already done a better job in the general case and you can clearly see funding the rebels is far outside the parameters of your general policy, so it's a waste of time or worse.
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#14This is just an advert for some guy's book, isn't it?
I'm curious how they wrote 3 volumes about that - has anyone read it?
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#15This is just an advert for some guy's book, isn't it?
After a short intro, the first sentence is: "In his exceptional book, The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks explains the concept of second-order thinking, which he calls second-level thinking."
The book is linked to Amazon and it looks like it is an Amazon Affiliate link.
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#16My first thought was: "What then?" - the question the author would like us to always ask - is implied in what game theory investigates, including a solid mathematical theory for accounting wins and losses (example: repeat prisoner's dilemma, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CO3-796fGv8 - free video).
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#17>> First-order thinking is fast and easy.
Most definitely not. Thinking about the processes and long term effects takes a deeo understanding of things, time to properly think it through, experience to get it right and constabt adjustments. So basiy the opposite of fast and easy.
Pretending to practice second -order thinking is fast and easy. As is writing a short blog about it.
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#18Surely this is just 'thinking', instead of acting on impulse or gut-feel. Second-order thinking is thinking about thinking. eg, If we have a decision to make, first order thinking is analyzing the situation and making the decision. Second order thinking is deciding how to go about analyzing the situation, how to arrive at a decision, how to measure the outcome, etc.
The way Ray Dalio describes it in "Principles" is very helpful in my opinion. He says whenever you are trying to solve a problem, rather than just doing it you should imagine you are trying to build a machine to do it. And if you are trying to perform a task you should imagine you are writing the script for a movie in which the task is performed.
The advantage of this second-order thinking is then you have a different frame of reference. You can for example compare the actual outcome to the script of the movie you imagined before. You also have more obvious agency and different choices. When you are designing your machine you are making concious choices and evaluating your options more specifically than if you are just plowing ahead with the obvious route. The machine analogy also means you can focus more on how you make the task automated, sustainable etc. So for example in tech rather than just doing a job, you write a script so next time the job becomes trivial, or (better) you automate the processes so you don't need to do the job again.
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#19This just in from the eggheads: actions have consequences.
I think it’s more likely that what Smart People actually have isn’t some supernatural common sense that allows them to iterate over cause and effect to a greater degree than Joe Stupid, but rather a set of specific domain experience and knowledge that allows them to infer that particular effects follow particular events about which they are reasoning.
Re: Second-Order Thinking
#20This is just "long term thinking". I would say the article isn't worth reading. But at least, it's a good reminder to focus on thinking about the long term consequences of actions/decisions.
Thanks for the TL/DR