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To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

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Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#31
UN studies assume global population will peak around the 2080s [0].

Western countries rely on immigration induced population growth to keep their economies healthy. Would it not makes sense to prepare for a future where that well has run dry?

[0] https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.deve...

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#32
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vacant != abandoned. Right from the article you linked, 2nd parg: "But this doesn’t mean millions of abandoned and dilapidated homes are withering away in the suburbs. Vacant homes can be unoccupied for many reasons beyond being uninhabitable. For example, a house can be vacant because it’s still on the market to be sold or rented or it’s a vacation home not currently in use."

Yes, we know. They should be expropriated.

So if I move for work and can't sell the old house before my start date, I just lose it? What a system.

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#33
post #8
post #6

We're in luck. There are 16 million abandoned homes in the US https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/vacancy-rates-stud... Easily takes care of the half a million people experiencing homelessness as well.

Vacant != abandoned. Right from the article you linked, 2nd parg: "But this doesn’t mean millions of abandoned and dilapidated homes are withering away in the suburbs. Vacant homes can be unoccupied for many reasons beyond being uninhabitable. For example, a house can be vacant because it’s still on the market to be sold or rented or it’s a vacation home not currently in use."

The works of the roots of the vines, of the trees, must be destroyed to keep up the price, and this is the saddest, bitterest thing of all. Carloads of oranges dumped on the ground. The people came for miles to take the fruit, but this could not be. How would they buy oranges at twenty cents a dozen if they could drive out and pick them up? And men with hoses squirt kerosene on the oranges, and they are angry at the crime, angry at the people who have come to take the fruit. A million people hungry, needing the fruit—and kerosene sprayed over the golden mountains.

- Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath, chapter 25

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#34

Apartments are terrible for people. Why not talk about needs for homes? Why can't America make small 2 bedroom homes anymore as seen in 1950s suburbs. It's either a mansion or an apartment now for new housing.

Because more and more of us want walkability and all the amenities that come with it. None of my age ~25 friends have plans about moving to the suburbs, but we are disappointed at how NYC rent increases mean we will struggle to afford a nice place in Manhattan.

People in the US don’t get there’s a middle way between high-rise megacity and suburban wasteland. In the UK I live in a walkable community of detached homes. There’s villages, towns, dense suburbs of cities. The US used to be famous for small town main streets!

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#35
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vacant != abandoned. Right from the article you linked, 2nd parg: "But this doesn’t mean millions of abandoned and dilapidated homes are withering away in the suburbs. Vacant homes can be unoccupied for many reasons beyond being uninhabitable. For example, a house can be vacant because it’s still on the market to be sold or rented or it’s a vacation home not currently in use."

Yes, we know. They should be expropriated.

People moving where the source house is still in the process of selling should have their house seized? I think that ends in everyone owning endless mortgages.

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#36
post #20

Apartments are terrible for people. Why not talk about needs for homes? Why can't America make small 2 bedroom homes anymore as seen in 1950s suburbs. It's either a mansion or an apartment now for new housing.

> Why can't America make small 2 bedroom homes anymore as seen in 1950s suburbs. It's either a mansion or an apartment now for new housing. Because it isn't the 1950s anymore. The middle class that was able to afford those homes no longer exists, the rich have gotten exponentially richer, and everyone else has or is increasingly being priced out of housing.

Not sure I buy that. There are a a fair number of people who would be "middle class" by the definition of being able to afford a two-bedroom house (if there were two-bedroom houses to be had), but who can't afford a large three-bedroom house. (It may be fewer than in the 1950s, but it's a lot more than none.)

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#37

Apartments are terrible for people. Why not talk about needs for homes? Why can't America make small 2 bedroom homes anymore as seen in 1950s suburbs. It's either a mansion or an apartment now for new housing.

Because more and more of us want walkability and all the amenities that come with it. None of my age ~25 friends have plans about moving to the suburbs, but we are disappointed at how NYC rent increases mean we will struggle to afford a nice place in Manhattan.

How do y'all reconcile the air and noise pollution living in cities? I see studies posted on HN about how important sleep is and I've been way more sensitive to noise as I age.

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#38

Apartments are terrible for people. Why not talk about needs for homes? Why can't America make small 2 bedroom homes anymore as seen in 1950s suburbs. It's either a mansion or an apartment now for new housing.

Because more and more of us want walkability and all the amenities that come with it. None of my age ~25 friends have plans about moving to the suburbs, but we are disappointed at how NYC rent increases mean we will struggle to afford a nice place in Manhattan.

Apartments are also more efficient to climate control assuming you don't try to make every apartment have windows on multiple sides.

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#39

Apartments are terrible for people. Why not talk about needs for homes? Why can't America make small 2 bedroom homes anymore as seen in 1950s suburbs. It's either a mansion or an apartment now for new housing.

The answer is because it’s no longer cheap to build housing. Developers would loose money building small houses to be sold at market rate. Hence why everything is luxury - it’s those super-size-me margins only this time it’s not greed, it’s necessity. Materials are expensive, labor is expensive, standards for new buildings are high.

The other reason is that during the baby boom we already built on much of the conveniently situated land (flat, close to existing areas and infrastructure, vacant or agricultural). Now we have to go and build out infrastructure, perform grading, tear down the previous building, clean up its toxic waste, etc. It all costs money. Much of Silicon Valley was built on orchards. Now we’re trying to build on superfund sites.

Re: To meet demand, US needs 4.3M more apartments by 2035

#40
Articles like this miss the fact that having a shelter is one thing, but homes are also an important investment for the people that live in them. So much so that they are the default strategy of most financial planners and are only rivaled by complicated financial tools that involve insurance savings programs.

I welcome the talk about more housing, but people need to remember: most of what we need aren't rentals. We need places people can own.

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