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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#861

Post by _delirium »

trebbble wrote: post #459
jollyllama wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so much worse if you compare it to ten or fifteen years ago. Or even five.

c. 2005, a $100 shopping cart was overflowing. 2022, a $100 shopping cart may still have space left before you have to start stacking things. More like $300-$350 if you fill it up.

What the heck are you buying? Piles of steak? Alcohol? I have never spent $100 on a single shopping cart, whether you're talking about 2005 or 2022. I'm not even trying to be frugal, just seems physically hard to load up that much if you're buying actual groceries and carrying them home in bags under your own muscle power.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#862

Post by _delirium »

blhack wrote: post #516
UncleMeat wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how it works. Inflation is not a force that acts on all prices. It is a measurement of a weighted average change in prices. One thing can be up a lot while another thing is flat, or even cheaper.

What has gotten cheaper?

My rent is down about 10% from pre-pandemic prices.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#863

Post by nephanth »

randomdata wrote: post #809
NotTameAntelope wrote: post #807

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your opinion on whether or not Russia is justified in its invasion of Ukraine?

Not really my area of expertise. Any opinions I have would be pure tribalism, which is rather meaningless, and completely off-topic. I came into a discussion about the use of language, not geopolitical relations. What was wrong with the original subject that you feel the need to change it?

I think their definition of "Apeasement" they linked above can specifically only be used when talking about an "aggressive power" (cf. wikipedia)

Thus, to solve the problem of what would be "apeasement", you need to resolve the question or which of the parties involved (Russia, Ukraine, "the West", the US, etc.) should be considered "aggressive".

And that's why this question, which i think is an attempt to understand who the aggressive party/parties are in your opinion, is not a change of subject

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#864

Post by nephanth »

failTide wrote: post #593
jcranmer wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The prospective fuel shortages in Europe are mostly to do with natural gas, not oil and oil derivatives, no?

If Europe ends up with a massive shortage of natural gas for heating, would that significantly increase the demand for heating oil?

Not for heating oil, since most installations that use gas for heating do not gace the capacity to switch to oil. And those who have the capacity to switch their heating system would choose a heat pump over oil (better yield).

But oil (&coal) may be bought to generate electricity (to replace gas, not for heating but for electricity production. Some European countries such as Germany are heavily reliant on gas for electricity production), and that may still drive petrol up

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#865

Post by nephanth »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #429
fleddr wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My father has worked in the meat industry his entire life and said that over the decades, he was shocked how unnaturally cheap meat has become. I'm in no way anti-meat, but a lot of people have normalized eating a huge amount of meat per day at ultra low cost, and internalized this as some basic right. Natural consumption of meat is to eat meat sporadically, not 3 times per day. I'm not questioning whether one likes…

What's a natural amount? I'm imagining a farm household hundreds of years ago, growing their own crops and having a herd of 4 cows, killing one or two a year for lots and lots of meat. Google says hunter-gatherers got most of their food from meat. And are crops not unnaturally cheap with modern mechanized farms?

I'd say a good definition for a "natural amount" is the average amount you get in a hunter-gatherer setting. That's what most of our evolution has prepared us for.

Not judging on the value of thaat diet though. "Natural" doesn't necessarily mean "good"

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#866

Post by [deleted] »

randomdata wrote: post #813
NotTameAntelope wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

What is it that you thought? Your comment is unclear. That you, deep down, knew your appeal to emotion would fail? Being from the West, my uneducated, tribalist-driven opinion says that Russia is not justified. But, again, not my area of expertise and not a subject I have much interest in. I do, however, enjoy the subject of language which is why I am participating in this conversation about the use of language. Let'…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#867

Post by roenxi »

cheschire wrote: post #278
roenxi wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Greed isn't a variable here - McDonalds today can't be more greedy than McDonalds in 2020. McDonalds in 2020 was already capped out as far as greed goes. They have been the poster child for corporate greed for decades. If greed could make prices go up they'd have been selling $3 burgers back in 1950. 2) If prices go up by 50% without an increase in costs, profit should go up by much more than 50% and share prices…

Why would you pick the situation that is clearly impossible when we're talking about inflation? Of course costs have increased. If prices go up by 50%, and then you subtract the increase in cost, then any measure over 0 is potentially a greed-driven number. It seems unlikely that zero companies are riding the wave of inflation acceptance in the population. At least some companies must be increasing their costs becaus…

> Or am I missing some greater economic concept?

It is a practical concept. If you think greed is a variable, then you will have to explain why McDonalds suddenly got greedy in 2022 and from 1940-2021 they've been charitably keeping prices low. Any why they aren't raising prices right now to the even higher numbers that we'll probably be seeing in a few years.

They just sell for the price that they think brings in the highest profit. That is the algorithm. Their motivations aren't a factor and the algorithm is has always been the same. They could be greedy or they could be not greedy and that doesn't change the situation.

> It seems unlikely that zero companies are riding the wave of inflation acceptance in the population.

It is possible that there are zero of such companies. The populace doesn't get to set prices - otherwise prices would be cost to manufacturer for everything. Since companies make a profit, it is clear that consumers "acceptance" doesn't influence the price.

People aren't accepting these price rises. They're saying all sorts of things about the companies doing them. Doesn't change the fact that the price has changed.

If greed or the acceptance of consumers were important then the situation would look different. Neither matter much.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#868

Post by throwaway0a5e »

tstrimple wrote: post #348
epistasis wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a big divide between politics rhetoric from political parties, and what's actually going on economically on the ground. Not only is Texas installing massive amounts of solar, wind, and battery storage, it's also mostly going into rural areas that are more politically conservative.

I wonder if they get the same conservative "No Industrial Solar" propaganda that pervades rural Iowa. A little bit of searching seems to indicate rural opposition to renewables to be fairly common. https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2022/01/27/backlash... Republican approval of renewable energy is also dropping year over year and is down 15% from 5 years ago. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/08/mos…

Most rural people have no problem with industrial development unless it's highly polluting (and by "highly" I mean "orders of magnitude above and beyond what it takes to make people here hand wring").

Declining support for renewable energy seems to be a result of team politics.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#869

Post by parkingrift »

bamboozled wrote: post #344
deanmoriarty wrote: post #111

No freaking way! My rent just went up 15% (and last year too, which forced me to move out and look for a cheaper apartment), all groceries are up 30% across the board compared to last year, I know because mobile apps show my previous receipts. These are the times I feel dumb for not being a homeowner (despite technically being able to afford it, just didn't want to get locked down in an area for 8+ years to make the…

Your mortgage repayments won't go up too?

Anyone answering “no” to this is wrong. A mortgage payment includes insurance, various property taxes, principle, interest, and sometimes other items such as mortgage insurance.

Principle and interest are fixed for most people. Mortgage insurance, as an example, is fixed. Everything else is variable.

The vast majority of buyers will see huge changes (increases) to their property taxes and insurance over the lifetime of a mortgage.

There’s also opportunity cost from all the upfront and ongoing capital, and homeowners practically never include that in their monthly costs estimates. Opportunity cost grows over time, too. Not just from compounding growth, but from maintenance and repairs that you otherwise wouldn’t make.

TLDR owning a home isn’t a fixed cost, and it’s usually way more expensive and variable than people are admitting or calculating.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#870

Post by Balero »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #612
valeness wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the OP is saying is you could have phrased your comment like you did in your last paragraph here. Nobody disagrees that until it ends the situation will create further instability; but it can end with Russia giving up or surrendering as well. There is no global objective truth that Russia will not surrender; so by saying "I'm just stating facts" you're actually making a normative claim instead of a descriptive o…

It is common and reasonable to exclude unlikely if conditions from statements. They are just claiming that Russian concession is much less likely than a Ukrainian one, which I think many would agree with.

How about:

If the war in Ukraine continues, we can expect less food production and potential oil disruption to center Europe.

No need to comment on how to get to this outcome, or thoughts about who will make a concession leading to a big conversation away from the main point of what you were trying to say.

Keep the if statement about exactly matters, not a secondary effect/cause.

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