U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5% • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#681

Post by drak0n1c » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:13 PM UTC

radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

Prices were already going up before July 2021, so this is not necessarily that positive (the amount of price increase is relative to an already heightened baseline).

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#682

Post by lamontcg » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:14 PM UTC

> The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.9 percent over the past 12 months, the same increase as the period ending June.

Fed is going to continue to increase rates.

At some point the markets are going to wake up to that reality and tank.

Then by holding rates high the Fed is going to break something in the economy and the recession will cause a financial crisis.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#683

Post by tshaddox » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

atyppo wrote: post #571

tshaddox wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We find it difficult to use the Costco OTC drugs like Advil among two people before the expiration date.

Expiration dates on some OTC drugs like Advil aren't as important as you might think. [See this.]( https://www.healthdigest.com/756305/does-ibuprofen-expire/ )

Yeah, I've taken drugs years after their expiration date. It's just not super confidence-inspiring.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#684

Post by burnished » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

ac29 wrote: post #609

silent_cal wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't have to do something like this. The change in consumption patterns is caused by inflation and should be measured. If someone has to switch from buying steak to ground beef, it's not a change in preference. They've stopped buying something they can't afford.

> The change in consumption patterns is caused by inflation and should be measured While inflation can change consumption patterns, its not the only factor. For example, how do you compare your current spending on a mobile data plan or video streaming service compared to how consumers spent their money in the 1970s?

Constant or diminished?

I am squinting at print media, broadcasts, and maybe live performances as a form of data. For example in the 1970s I expect my family had a book budget. My book budget has been subsumed by my ISP budget and they both effectively accomplish the same thing (reading material).

I know that this specific example wasn't crucial to your overall point, but I thought it was an interesting tangent to take literally.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#685

Post by ailef » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

daemoens wrote: post #633

ailef wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what kind of bubble people are in if they think Russia is about to surrender soon. According to the Western media they were running out of ammo in March, April, May and June. Meanwhile, with an incompetent army running out of supplies, they were apparently able to occupy 20% of Ukraine's territory.

The goal was 100% of the country, not 20%. They've been stalled with little progress over the past month.

I've never heard the goal was 100% of the country. Can you point to a source?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#686

Post by Dylan16807 » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

norwalkbear wrote: post #661

Dylan16807 wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there actually anything wrong with normalizing eating bugs? Like, get meat if you want but don't be a baby about insects?

Yea insects typically have a high amount of allergens to humans. It's why bioreactors for things like insulin, igb, etc avoid insects cells if they can.

You want to go as low as possible for a medicine, but how common are allergies to the kind of breeds that make reasonable food?

For comparison, it would be silly to say we shouldn't normalize eating peanuts because of the allergy risk.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#687

Post by signatoremo » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

h0mie wrote: post #2

Quoted post unavailable.

Inflation is by definition the increase in prices. It is a drop because the rate of increase is slowing down. Do you think people will mistake it with deflation?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#688

Post by kqr » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

prionassembly wrote: post #546

kqr wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what statistical process control charts were invented to tell us: https://static.loop54.com/XmR.html?baseline=7.5,7.9,8.5,8.3,... Nope, last number is well within the limits set by the variation of the previous numbers. Depending on how sensitive you feel like being to false alarms, I wouldn't even say there's been a clear trend this year. If you detrend it by successive differences we see that the slope is v…

Deming statistics are a cargo cult. Try running some (Monte Carlo style) simulations; I did these many moons ago and they don't work at all.

I assure you Deming knew what he was doing, and my statistics knowledge is not limited to cargo culting the more popular SPC tools. However, they are useful for teaching the general public about accounting for the internal variation of data from the same population.

That said, as I've admitted in a more constructive parent comment, this tool was misapplied here due to my misreading of the GGP.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#689

Post by randomdata » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:19 PM UTC

NotTameAntelope wrote: post #619

lettergram wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

Small semantic issue, but “make peace with Russia” implies they’re not the aggressors. Russia can end this tomorrow, by withdrawing from Ukraine. You probably didn’t mean to imply anything, but it’s a sensitive topic, semantics matter.

Per the discussion, it only ends once sanctions are lifted, and that requires a willingness from "us" to make peace with Russia. If there is feelings of spitefulness for what they did the sanctions could continue even after Russia pulls out.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#690

Post by edmcnulty101 » Wed, Aug 10, 2022, 5:19 PM UTC

scottLobster wrote: post #266

Great. All I know is I'm trading a lot more time for money this year. Way less takeout, avoiding toll roads unless it saves at least 30 minutes, fewer streaming services (will renew on a show-by-show basis), and food is getting so crazy I might start going to multiple stores to try and save money instead of my one consolidated trip to Wegmans. I'm also stuffing my freezer with meat and have a year's supply of non-per…

Don't even think about trying to buy a car.