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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

bls.gov

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#521

Post by kranke155 »

sanderjd wrote: post #464
kranke155 wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should read reports by actual experts instead of media. The RUSI - Royal United Services Institute - is a leading UK military institute that had boots on the ground assessing the situation. Here is their assessment. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-r... "At present, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses are leading to an attritional conflict that risks a protracted…

It seems to me that they are right about the "attritional conflict that risks a protracted war" part, but that the ability to accurately forecast the outcome of such a war is extremely limited. If one side were winning easily and quickly, it would be easy to predict the outcome. With a long tug of war conflict, forecasting is much less useful.

You're right. That's the current situation on the ground, but RUSI certainly can't predict the future, and they do suggest that with increased deliveries of Western weaponry, it's possible Ukraine will succeed.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#523

Post by datlife »

inflationish wrote: post #512
scottLobster wrote: post #266

Great. All I know is I'm trading a lot more time for money this year. Way less takeout, avoiding toll roads unless it saves at least 30 minutes, fewer streaming services (will renew on a show-by-show basis), and food is getting so crazy I might start going to multiple stores to try and save money instead of my one consolidated trip to Wegmans. I'm also stuffing my freezer with meat and have a year's supply of non-per…

Just read about the inflation trimming. It is one of the ways the government make inflation to appear lower than it is, making people happy. In US, the 31% of the goods with highest inflation are excluded, but only 24% of the goods with lowest inflation, making the inflation appear much lower than it is.

Where do you get the lists of "goods with highest inflation" and "goods with lowest inflation?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#524

Post by smaryjerry »

vegardx wrote: post #308
lettergram wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

Quoted post unavailable.

Natural gas is needed to make most highly efficient fertilizer and natural gas has just about doubled from prior to the war - this will increase the cost of food down the line, unless natural gas starts flowing freely from Russia again.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#525

Post by seansmccullough »

deanmoriarty wrote: post #369
bamboozled wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your mortgage repayments won't go up too?

No? In the US a residential mortgage is almost always fixed rate, locked in for the entire term (i.e. 30 years). So it can basically never go up, just down if the opportunity arises and you can willingly refinance your loan as interest rates drop.

Your principal and interest payment can never go up, but your property tax (which is included as escrow on your mortgage) definitely can. I live in Texas, and my mortgage will be $400 a month more next year because of rising property tax.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#526

Post by jjcon »

weberer wrote: post #332

"In the fall of 1972, President Nixon announced that the rate of increase of inflation was decreasing. This was the first time a sitting president used the third derivative to advance his case for reelection." - Civ5

Would that be third derivative or just second? My brain doesn’t want to parse that

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#527

Post by kortilla »

tppiotrowski wrote: post #205
pojzon wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head. Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time. Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other. If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed…

If you want to replace gas stations with EV charging stations that 'full-up' your car in less than 5 minutes, you're right. But if every parking space just gets 1KW of solar panel ~$500 and sun shines for 10 hours a day, you probably have enough power for the 30 miles of daily commute. A car sits idle for 90% of the day. We can use this time to charge it. It's not the long road trip use case but I think will put a bi…

> ~$500 and sun shines for 10 hours a day

I’m not gonna spend 10 hours in an office and definitely not from sunrise to sunset. Also, 10 hours of sunshine in a day is a rarity in most of the US, especially during the winter.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#528

Post by Balero »

ailef wrote: post #501
lettergram wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol I’m not “placing blame” I’m stating what I see as facts. Russia will not surrender. The longer the Ukraine is in the war, the higher likelihood the people of Ukraine starve. We can make an argument that they shouldn’t surrender. That’s a moral position. I’m pointing out if we don’t figure it out within the next few months you’re not going to get the food from the region, as people are fighting over it. I don’t ca…

I don't understand what kind of bubble people are in if they think Russia is about to surrender soon. According to the Western media they were running out of ammo in March, April, May and June. Meanwhile, with an incompetent army running out of supplies, they were apparently able to occupy 20% of Ukraine's territory.

To be clear. I agree with you, I doubt Russia will surrender any time soon.

The conclusion as far as food goes is that globally, plans should be made that do not count on any food from Ukraine, or Russia entering global markets.

I just took umbrage that OP was seemingly (and probably unintentionally) putting the blame for the situation on Ukraine and not Russia.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#529

Post by ab_testing »

I know the market is cheering this news, but isnt it depressing. That means the Fed will continue to raise raies until this number drops to around 2-4% range. Do they expect that to happen by the end of this year or will it be an year or more to get to that number. Sorry I am not an economist.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#530

Post by schemescape »

jpadkins wrote: post #307
donatj wrote: post #146

What are the actual metrics they use to measure inflation? My electric bill is 33% higher than previous years, my gas bill is similar. City/Water/Sewer doubled. Trips to the grocery store are up close to 20%, and gasoline doubled. Everything you actually purchase day-to-day is up far more than the inflation benchmarks, so much so it’s beginning to feel like propaganda. I overnight went from thinking “I make good mone…

The 1980 and prior CPI calculation is still calculated here: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts As inflation was measured in the 1970's, we are experiencing ~15% consumer inflation.

ShadowStats claims ~8% inflation since 2000, i.e. a 5x cumulative increase in cost of living. I don't buy it.
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