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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#501

Post by ailef »

lettergram wrote: post #274
Balero wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- if Ukraine doesn’t surrender, we can expect less food production and potential oil disruption to center Europe If Russia doesn't surrender. Don't put the responsibility of global food prices on the people being repressed and killed in their own homes. Do it on the aggressors and war criminals.

Lol I’m not “placing blame” I’m stating what I see as facts. Russia will not surrender. The longer the Ukraine is in the war, the higher likelihood the people of Ukraine starve. We can make an argument that they shouldn’t surrender. That’s a moral position. I’m pointing out if we don’t figure it out within the next few months you’re not going to get the food from the region, as people are fighting over it. I don’t ca…

I don't understand what kind of bubble people are in if they think Russia is about to surrender soon.

According to the Western media they were running out of ammo in March, April, May and June. Meanwhile, with an incompetent army running out of supplies, they were apparently able to occupy 20% of Ukraine's territory.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#502

Post by _ea1k »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #284
ericd wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, not this again. If you have a standard household outlet accessible where you park, you probably don’t need charging stations outside of road trips, because you’ll be getting 60+ miles of charge overnight. The load at a given time is like a third that of a central air conditioner. I think we can handle it.

And for those of us in apartments / condos? My HOA were all born in the 40s and think EVs are simply a fad that doesn't need supporting.

I agree. We are probably still 3-5 years away from getting solid support within large multi-family dwellings.

The need will become obvious to them once market share approaches 20%.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#503

Post by hcurtiss »

I think to most reasonable people, it's not fair to call it a "drop." It's a smaller increase than last month, but it's still a very meaningful increase in the cost of goods. Yes, my house is not burning as quickly, but make no mistake, it's still burning.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#504

Post by _-david-_ »

m0llusk wrote: post #65
wun0ne wrote: post #3

Just as the transient inflation camp emptied...

Because much of the inflation, especially that which hurt consumers most, was transient. That is clearly shown by how gas prices are dropping faster than ever before.

Why don't you look at something other than gas? Believe it or not but people need to eat food for example.

Also, the gas prices are still significantly higher than they were a few years ago so dropping isn't really a big deal until it becomes affordable again.

Lastly, one reason the price is dropping is due to releasing the reserves. When that stops (and it will have to eventually) the price will increase again.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#505

Post by celtain »

honkkong420 wrote: post #378
jonnycomputer wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it goes down. Take a look at this chart, expand to 10y or max; inflation was about -0.75% in early 2020. In fact, it went into negative territory many times in the last decade. Prices go down during recessions, particularly. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo... OTOH, the Fed has goal of maintaining a 2% inflation target; so in the long run you can expect it to go up. For many many…

But our unemployment rates were so low in 2019, how could they have been lower with higher inflation?

We have seen unemployment fall slightly below 2019 levels, but the more significant result of greater demand stimulation would have been reaching those levels of unemployment much faster, rather than taking a decade to recover from the great recession.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#506

Post by mediaman »

randomdata wrote: post #187
radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

Corn seems to be a good leading indicator here[1]. Cash bids were $4 in 2019, $5 in 2020, $6 in 2021, $7 at the start of 2022, $9 when the war in Ukraine broke out, down to $8 in June, and now at $7.50 where it has remained stable at since the beginning of July. Which suggests that things are indeed slowing. [1] Which likely ends up being a proxy for oil, but as a farmer I watch food commodities much more closely.

Plastic is showing similar trends. $0.45 prior to Covid, peaked at $1.35/lb, and is now back down to 0.75-0.80/lb. This drives a lot of consumer inflation because of packaging.

International freight, also. Ningbo-LA ran from $3,500 pre-Covid up to $22k last August/September, now down to around $9k.

Overall, still up a lot compared to 2019, but substantial drops in many commodities compared to peak.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#507

Post by ghaff »

mjh2539 wrote: post #427
bamboozled wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your mortgage repayments won't go up too?

Mortgage payments are composed of: principal, interest, taxes, and insurance. Some people may have their HOA dues also bundled in, but most don't. In any case, HOA dues are usually pretty small (like less than $500 per year), unless you live in a condominium or a neighborhood with really expensive stuff owned by the HOA, in which case they can sometimes exceed the other components of the mortgage payment. Most folks…

Of course, maintenance goes up over time as well--as do utilities. Not part of the mortgage but certainly part of the cost of living in a house over time. Value often increases over time as well but this isn't cash in hand over the course of living in a house.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#508

Post by jonnycomputer »

propogandist wrote: post #462
anotherman554 wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the New York Times article you linked to: "But experts on inflation say the changes to calculations over the years have made the reported rate a more accurate snapshot of how much prices are rising for shoppers. The rate under a different methodology might be higher, they say, but the effect would be small, and the alternative number would do a poorer job of reflecting the costs consumers were grappling with."

The experts on inflation told us it wasn’t real, unrelated to excessive govt spending, and that it was transitory, in the last year.

The experts thought it would be transitory, but they were wrong, and most admitted that they were wrong.

It is ok to be wrong. Especially when predicting the future. Cut the malarkey.

As for it not being real, who said that? No one I know.

Unrelated to government spending? Well, inflation is multi-causal. Europe didn't go on a spending splurge, and yet they have inflation too. Most economists believe that government spending is at least partially responsible for the inflation. However, when the government was deciding to respond to the pandemic recession, economists advised them that the downside risks of over-compensating were smaller than not doing enough. And you know what? they were right. 8% inflation is certainly high, but this is no depression.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#509

Post by arcticbull »

hajile wrote: post #380
jliptzin wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Avg gasoline prices are down 20% in 2 months. Is that noise? https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

That's an artifact of dumping 30% of the strategic oil reserves into the market to drive down prices. Maybe the prices stay low, but with Europe warning of fuel shortages this winter, I can't see that happening.

I'm not 100% sure they did this but with the SPR you can actually smooth out the price curve for oil.

Much of this period, the spot price of oil was high, but oil for delivery 6-12 months out was much less expensive. The SPR could sell into the spot market but buy oil for delivery 6-12 months out. This actually could mean a much more sustained drop.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#510

Post by randomdata »

lettergram wrote: post #290
randomdata wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corn seems to be a good leading indicator here[1]. Cash bids were $4 in 2019, $5 in 2020, $6 in 2021, $7 at the start of 2022, $9 when the war in Ukraine broke out, down to $8 in June, and now at $7.50 where it has remained stable at since the beginning of July. Which suggests that things are indeed slowing. [1] Which likely ends up being a proxy for oil, but as a farmer I watch food commodities much more closely.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

Your concern is not reflected in the market. 2023 crop is down similarly over the same timeframe, with cash bids at only $6.80 presently. Your scenario is not unrealistic, to be sure, but current behaviour is not acting in accordance with it and inflation only tracks actual, measured, behaviour, not what could have been.

Certainly, it is possible for inflation to slow and then ramp up again. It is not a static value by any stretch. But it remains that current indicators suggest that it is slowing. Not only in the actual inflation metrics but other also in other indicators.

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