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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#461

Post by 88913527 »

AlwaysRock wrote: post #405
scottLobster wrote: post #266

Great. All I know is I'm trading a lot more time for money this year. Way less takeout, avoiding toll roads unless it saves at least 30 minutes, fewer streaming services (will renew on a show-by-show basis), and food is getting so crazy I might start going to multiple stores to try and save money instead of my one consolidated trip to Wegmans. I'm also stuffing my freezer with meat and have a year's supply of non-per…

So I know I can make 65 an hour with side jobs. I've got a few side gigs where I can set my own schedule and work those hours at any time. I could probably push higher if I wanted (75-100 an hour). When I need to pad my savings I cut some costs but mostly I just work extra hours in side gigs. I couldnt imagine its worth going to multiple grocery stores to compare prices. Shop at 1 store, pay more for some items, work…

Not everyone is interested in performing side jobs, and comparing weekly ads and sales prices can be a 'fun' optimization problem. It's a more productive use of time than whatever the alternative would've been (social media, watching television, etc). Moderately large grocery stores have real web apps these days so you can get pricing data and track it over time. Combine that with the personalized deals / digital coupons and you can create your analysis for what's the best to purchase.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#462

Post by propogandist »

anotherman554 wrote: post #420
propogandist wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

here’s a biased media outlet that may meet your standards https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/technology/inflation-meas...

From the New York Times article you linked to: "But experts on inflation say the changes to calculations over the years have made the reported rate a more accurate snapshot of how much prices are rising for shoppers. The rate under a different methodology might be higher, they say, but the effect would be small, and the alternative number would do a poorer job of reflecting the costs consumers were grappling with."

The experts on inflation told us it wasn’t real, unrelated to excessive govt spending, and that it was transitory, in the last year.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#463

Post by lettergram »

asah wrote: post #386
lettergram wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol I’m not “placing blame” I’m stating what I see as facts. Russia will not surrender. The longer the Ukraine is in the war, the higher likelihood the people of Ukraine starve. We can make an argument that they shouldn’t surrender. That’s a moral position. I’m pointing out if we don’t figure it out within the next few months you’re not going to get the food from the region, as people are fighting over it. I don’t ca…

Where do you get this "fact" that Russia won't surrender? More powerful armies have been forced to retreat from unsuccessful invasions.

I dont see any way Ukraine can win. There’s a lot of real information out there (military reports). I’m not going to dive into that and debate it. There are also many channels covering this topic mostly neutral:

Here’s one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KILAY2miQdI

Here’s another: https://m.youtube.com/c/AlexanderMercourisReal

In short, for Russia to lose would be the end of Russia. They have to be seen as hitting their objectives (they’ve hit a few so far). Ukraine is massively out gunned, but has more manpower active. That said, I don’t see an outcome where Ukraine can regain any territory and will likely only lose more. That will further embolden Russia and will keep them from surrendering at the very least.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#464

Post by sanderjd »

kranke155 wrote: post #309
xedrac wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if Ukraine doesn’t surrender I think you mean if Russia doesn't surrender. If Ukraine was to surrender, we'd have bigger problems than an increase in beef costs. I don't see any universe where Russia wins this war.

You should read reports by actual experts instead of media. The RUSI - Royal United Services Institute - is a leading UK military institute that had boots on the ground assessing the situation. Here is their assessment. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-r... "At present, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses are leading to an attritional conflict that risks a protracted…

It seems to me that they are right about the "attritional conflict that risks a protracted war" part, but that the ability to accurately forecast the outcome of such a war is extremely limited. If one side were winning easily and quickly, it would be easy to predict the outcome. With a long tug of war conflict, forecasting is much less useful.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#465

Post by ryukafalz »

xvedejas wrote: post #372
scottLobster wrote: post #266

Great. All I know is I'm trading a lot more time for money this year. Way less takeout, avoiding toll roads unless it saves at least 30 minutes, fewer streaming services (will renew on a show-by-show basis), and food is getting so crazy I might start going to multiple stores to try and save money instead of my one consolidated trip to Wegmans. I'm also stuffing my freezer with meat and have a year's supply of non-per…

I'm riding my bike a lot more to get places, rather than just for recreation; and it seems this is true for many around me as well.

I’ve started riding a bike for transportation during the pandemic; I think the desire to get outdoors more turbocharged cycling during the pandemic, and now people are probably realizing it’s a good way to get around too. So maybe a combination of both.

In any case, I think that’s a good thing! The oil crisis of the 1970s was one of the contributing factors to the Netherlands getting their now-excellent bike infrastructure.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#466

Post by [deleted] »

lettergram wrote: post #290
randomdata wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corn seems to be a good leading indicator here[1]. Cash bids were $4 in 2019, $5 in 2020, $6 in 2021, $7 at the start of 2022, $9 when the war in Ukraine broke out, down to $8 in June, and now at $7.50 where it has remained stable at since the beginning of July. Which suggests that things are indeed slowing. [1] Which likely ends up being a proxy for oil, but as a farmer I watch food commodities much more closely.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#467

Post by chadash »

KallDrexx wrote: post #245
nobleach wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my experience while living in Florida. Hurricane/Flood risks made it so there was no "shopping around". I had a house (built in the mid-60s) with a ton of tree cover. There was basically one company who'd even talk to me. I can't imagine what they'd charge me these days.

As a Florida resident, the florida situation is screwed but not because of hurricanes and flood risks. The problem is our laws about assignment of benefits and how insurance lawsuits get punished. So what happens is anytime any storm comes in you get swarmed with roofing companies wanting you to assign all benefits to them and they offer you a "free" roof. They then keep telling the roofing companies their previous e…

Last I checked, Florida has about 6% of the total US population, but more than 75% of property insurance litigation. The situation is insane.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#468

Post by krallja »

mmaurizi wrote: post #317
wing-_-nuts wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And for those of us in apartments / condos? My HOA were all born in the 40s and think EVs are simply a fad that doesn't need supporting.

What about where you park at work? Or when grocery shopping? There are more options for 240v "slow" chargers than you'd think.

How long does grocery shopping take you? I can do it in under 30 minutes, definitely under an hour. And in that half hour, my car charges… about three miles (@ 3.6kW)? That’s about how far the trip to the grocery store is. 50A 240V (10.8kW) only gets me up to 7.5 miles of charge in a grocery shopping trip.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#469

Post by anotherman554 »

desireco42 wrote: post #174

My experience is that prices went 100% - 150% up. Things I care about went double, no amount of statistics engineering can change this fact. Fuel prices along, while it came down a little, they are still way high.

Things you care about went double year over year? That's remarkable if true.

My biggest expense is a fixed rate mortgage, which did not go up. Followed by property taxes, which went up 2.7% between 2021 and 2022.

Electricity barely went up because my electric supplier locks in rates years in advance with long term contract. (I expected it to go up eventually but not 100%)

Food is harder to calculate because prices are variable since grocery stores have periodic sales. I just checked and Diet Coke at Sam's Club went up about 20% year over year- which is a lot but is certainly not double.

Since I tend to order the same thing at a local Wendy's based on my credit card history prices year over year appear to have gone up 4.2%.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#470

Post by kube-system »

gambiting wrote: post #279
devin wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what to what? I don't know if you're talking about a 600% increase of a tiny number or what.

£0.03/kWh to £0.18/kWh. Yes the number overall is tiny - but it still means that whatever I used to spend on heating/hot water, is now 6x higher.

I’m guessing geopolitics is affecting your price. I’m paying 0.045 USD per kWh in for natural gas here in the US, including all fees.
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