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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

bls.gov

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#31

Post by guipsp »

lake_vincent wrote: post #17
erispoe wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your evidence of higher inflation?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vineerbhansali/2021/02/23/why-p... What the Fed calls inflation is not what you think it is.

An article by an investment fund ceo who says we should care about investment prices instead of food prices

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#32

Post by fnordpiglet »

lake_vincent wrote: post #17
erispoe wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your evidence of higher inflation?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vineerbhansali/2021/02/23/why-p... What the Fed calls inflation is not what you think it is.

Good thing they don’t publish the inflation number! Checks and balances!

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#34

Post by mrfox321 »

yieldcrv wrote: post #24

is there really no better way to calculate this? 9.1% between june 2021 and june 2022 8.5% between july 2021 and july 2022 its just not really conveying everything... well?

You need a large time window or error bars will be large.

Annual numbers are also canon.

People think on yearly timescales

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#35

Post by sf_rob »

yieldcrv wrote: post #24

is there really no better way to calculate this? 9.1% between june 2021 and june 2022 8.5% between july 2021 and july 2022 its just not really conveying everything... well?

IMO, you should be watching the month over month numbers and only using YoY to contextualize. Looking at the delta of YoY data doesn't tell you much without knowing the rate for the monthly report that was dropped and the monthly report that was gained.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#37

Post by ajross »

not_the_fda wrote: post #25
altdataseller wrote: post #10

Whats the goal? At what inflation rate will the Fed be happy with?

The Fed has a target of 2 percent of average inflation, so a long ways to go.

Inflation is a year-over-year measurement, not a ladder. Signal in the previous year matters too. If aggregate prices in the economy come down 1.085/1.02 ~= 6.4% from wherever they were a year ago, we're back at baseline. Within a few months the year-old number will start showing some of the elevated prices from last fall. I don't know that anyone necessarily expects to hit 2% exactly, but we'll very likely be looking at "normal" numbers again by the end of the year.

Which is exactly what all the folks trying to point out that this was a transitory effect have been trying to say, repeatedly, only to be shouted down by the inflatocaplyse cheerleaders.

(FWIW: if prices continue to come down as rapidly as they did this month, the "recession" is likely going to turn out to be a phantom too.)

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#38

Post by ryanSrich »

brianmcc wrote: post #13

Good. Now we can look forward to interest rate cuts to deal with the recession...

The opposite needs to happen actually. Prices for housing, used cars, and groceries are still out of control, and need to be reduced by 20-50%. Only way that happens is with higher rates (for houses and cars), and punishing suppliers for using the “supply chain issues” as an excuse to extort money from buyers (for goods and groceries).

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#39

Post by dkrich »

endisneigh wrote: post #7

What a shocker - drastic increases in the price of energy result in inflation, energy price goes down, inflation also begins to go down.

Right now oil and housing are basically what are driving the narrative and as a result, fed policy. I don’t necessarily expect that to last forever but currently it’s very clear that the fed is basically reacting to monthly cpi numbers and the narrative that results from them. This fed has become very easy to predict, hence the massive moves in yields/stocks this morning. That said, if oil were to go back up for a few weeks to 110+ I’d expect the next cpi print to be higher than expected and this move to largely reverse. Kind of crazy so much is based on the price of a commodity nobody can really control, but it’s where we are.
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