Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

No More “Insight Porn”

jakobgreenfeld.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 323 posts

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#221

Post by Swizec »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #165
Swizec wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Identifying challenges to overcome is extremely helpful. Necessary even! Giving up before you even start just because it’s harder for you than someone else, that part doesn’t help. The thing here can be anything. Losing weight, running a marathon, starting a business, climbing out of poverty into the middle class. You can’t get there unless you start.

> Giving up before you even start just because it’s harder for you than someone else, that part doesn’t help. Doesn't help with what? In general , when you have your choice of direction, choosing a direction that plays to your strength instead of a direction where you are starting out handicapped compared to competitors can certainly help with your chance of success. If we ignore the specifics about it being about th…

I think you’re conflating 2 different things.

You mention adjusting tactics and strategies, even goals, based on circumstances. This is what “playing the cards you have” is. You do what you can with what you’ve got.

Giving up before you start doesn’t help because it’s a shut down. You don’t even get to the part of assessing viability and weighing risk.

The point is that if you want a change on whatever dimension you choose to care about, you have to do something. What that something is depends on the cards you have. How far it can take you again depends on circumstances.

And it’s fine to not want to do things. Or see the costs and decide that kind of life is not for you. But at least you took the time to evaluate.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#222

Post by dominotw »

recyclelater wrote: post #72
ycombinete wrote: post #2

Jonathan Haidt speaks about something similar in The Happiness Hypothesis . Epiphanies can only take you so far, before their novelty wears off and they lose the power to change your behaviour. This is why self-help book readers tend to keep reading self-help books. 4 weeks after finishing one they need another hit of epiphanies. Even the lamest examples listed in the OP article can probably give someone a boost in p…

Jocko willinck (and many others I am sure) likes to state that you can’t rely on motivation because it comes and goes. Rely on discipline, build habits using discipline if you want to get anything done. A trite but in my opinion helpful statement is discipline equals freedom.

doesn't discipline require willpower though. I was told relying on willpower is bad because you only have limited amount of it per day and surely going to fail your when you run out of it.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#223

Post by mcguire »

bombcar wrote: post #140
Swizec wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People don't want to admit it involves hard work and luck My favorite realization from actually playing cards. We used to play a lot of rummy on vacations as a family. Like a lot . I kept losing. Hard. Absolutely destroyed. If only I could get this one card to complete my hand, I’d win every time. But it just wouldn’t come! I had terrible luck. Someone else always ended up winning before I got the one card I needed…

This is really visible in bridge; the hands are all random but how you play them is entirely skill. Anyone can win with a perfect hand; the skill comes in dealing with the imperfect hands. True in life, too. Bridge is nice that you can compensate for skill somewhat by handicapping, and the less-skilled players can still get a great hand and win sometimes. I always say "bridge is a fun game to lose" - and that's a rea…

Bridge is a weird game in that the actual play of the hand is almost unimportant. You can lose the game by playing the hand badly, but you can only win consistently in the bidding.

Which is why abstract and complicated bidding systems dominate the game, which gives it that lovely, steep initial learning curve.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#224

Post by jrochkind1 »

Swizec wrote: post #221
jrochkind1 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Giving up before you even start just because it’s harder for you than someone else, that part doesn’t help. Doesn't help with what? In general , when you have your choice of direction, choosing a direction that plays to your strength instead of a direction where you are starting out handicapped compared to competitors can certainly help with your chance of success. If we ignore the specifics about it being about th…

I think you’re conflating 2 different things. You mention adjusting tactics and strategies, even goals, based on circumstances. This is what “playing the cards you have” is . You do what you can with what you’ve got. Giving up before you start doesn’t help because it’s a shut down. You don’t even get to the part of assessing viability and weighing risk. The point is that if you want a change on whatever dimension you…

> Giving up before you start doesn’t help because it’s a shut down. You don’t even get to the part of assessing viability and weighing risk.

Now you're adding "before you start", who said that until you did? Ok, what if instead you've gotten to the part of assessing viability and weighing risk and then decided not to go down that path, of, say, founding a startup.

> What that something is depends on the cards you have. How far it can take you again depends on circumstances.

Right, perhaps depending on circumstances that something is not founding a startup.

I don't totally understand what we're disagreeing about. Or what you mean when you say "it doesn't help" -- help who do what?

I would say deciding your circumstances make it harder for you than others to found a startup, thus it would make more sense to join someone else's startup or look for a job at a FAANG or something instead -- could at least conceivably "help". Help you find a path that works better for you to find success. I'm not sure what you mean by your repetition that it "doesn't help", as, like, a logical a priori.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#225

Post by ghaff »

nickff wrote: post #215
chowells wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one ever talks about the opportunity cost of building up a "luck surface". What is the expected value of doing so? What do you have to sacrifice to do so? Is there any evidence the EV is positive, or is this just another selection bias?

Well, one extreme example is buying lottery tickets; it's the best way to expose yourself to the potential upside of winning the lottery, yet the expected value is quite negative. That example is quite bracing, but I think it points out that there are many ways to build this 'luck surface', and the expected values of each are probably very different, and likely situational.

>there are many ways to build this 'luck surface', and the expected values of each are probably very different, and likely situational.

I agree. Something as straightforward as being known as someone who does good work, putting yourself out there somewhat (writing, speaking, etc.), basically developing a network of people who you know at least professionally is certainly a way a lot of people develop at least something of a "luck surface." It may well not produce the big win but it can certainly lead to "lucky" opportunities.

Of course, there are other options that are more like gambles that may have negative EV but if you don't play big you probably won't win big.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#226

Post by TuringTest »

hyperpallium2 wrote: post #217
bombcar wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Get lucky" is always the key - however, you can increase your "luck surface" by doing certain things (for example, you couldn't have gotten lucky if you hadn't started the company, nor if you hadn't bothered to talk to people).

> Luck is when opportunity meets preparedness.

And success is being lucky repeatedly, so you can't really plan for it; only be disqualified if you're below the minimum entry point of preparedness.

Anyone telling you that they worked hard to achieve their current success is falling to the survivor bias fallacy.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#227

Post by scarmig »

nickff wrote: post #215
chowells wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one ever talks about the opportunity cost of building up a "luck surface". What is the expected value of doing so? What do you have to sacrifice to do so? Is there any evidence the EV is positive, or is this just another selection bias?

Well, one extreme example is buying lottery tickets; it's the best way to expose yourself to the potential upside of winning the lottery, yet the expected value is quite negative. That example is quite bracing, but I think it points out that there are many ways to build this 'luck surface', and the expected values of each are probably very different, and likely situational.

All the talk about building a great "luck surface" is just an attempt to deny luck: something might seem like luck, but it's really part of an intentional strategy to maximize potential value!

For any given "luck surface" strategy, you can find far more people who haven't achieved massive success using it than those who have. Some strategies are probably better than others, but those are not foreseeable in advance.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#228

Post by holoduke »

MOARDONGZPLZ wrote: post #28

I got super lucky. I started a company and didn’t really have any meaningful traction. I was about to shut it down. Walking out of the grocery store one night after work, I passed by my former manager when I was an intern. We got to talk for about 30 seconds, mentioned my company, she asked me to email her. I did, and that very quickly led to my first big customer which makes me about double what a FAANG swe would ma…

It's always easy to say it's luck. But I don't think it is. You created opportunity. And that's the key thing. Create opportunities. As many as possible. I did something similar. Started with a dollar a day. Ended up with several thousands a day. The only thing I consider luck is the fact that a grew up in a stable family in a rich country where I got faced with computers at a very early age. I received enough time to explore my desires. Never felt any pressure or whatsoever. But the businesses I created where my own work.

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#229

Post by TuringTest »

draugadrotten wrote: post #69
danaris wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can increase your "luck surface" by doing certain things ....and your chances of being able to do those things (without severe risk of poverty and homelessness) are increased dramatically by having been lucky enough to be born wealthy, or at least upper-middle-class.

> ....and your chances of being able to do those things (without severe risk of poverty and homelessness) are increased dramatically by having been lucky enough to be born wealthy, or at least upper-middle-class. That's some good insight porn right there!

> That's some good insight porn right there!

...and yet, all poor people know it by heart (unless they were born into a rich family that has just fallen from grace), , because it's totally true.

For more good insight: wealthy families know a lot more about how to make money when you have some money. Poor families know a lot more about avoiding the risk of being totally broke from an unlucky event, because they know they'd be totally unable to recover from it (not having the safety net of education and wealthy contacts that the upper-middle class have even when they go broke).

Re: No More “Insight Porn”

#230

Post by pc86 »

thenerdhead wrote: post #97
recyclelater wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jocko willinck (and many others I am sure) likes to state that you can’t rely on motivation because it comes and goes. Rely on discipline, build habits using discipline if you want to get anything done. A trite but in my opinion helpful statement is discipline equals freedom.

This is not a new idea. Just a new messenger for the modern era. Marcus Aurelius was talking about this thousands of years ago. > At dawn, when you have trouble getting out of bed, tell yourself: “I have to go to work — as a human being. What do I have to complain of, if I’m going to do what I was born for — the things I was brought into the world to do? Or is this what I was created for? To huddle under the blankets…

I don't think the GP or Willink himself has ever suggested it's a new idea. Stoicism and that military Willink/Goggins/etc type of motivation go hand in hand.
Post reply on HN